We have performed a simulation of a next generation sky survey's (Pan-STARRS 1) efficiency for detecting Earth-impacting asteroids. The steady-state sky-plane distribution of the impactors long before impact is concentrated towards small solar elongations (Chesley and Spahr, 2004) but we find that there is interesting and potentially exploitable behavior in the sky-plane distribution in the months leading up to impact. The next generation surveys will find most of the dangerous impactors (>140m diameter) during their decade-long survey missions though there is the potential to miss difficult objects with long synodic periods appearing in the direction of the Sun, as well as objects with long orbital periods that spend much of their time far from the Sun and Earth. A space-based platform that can observe close to the Sun may be needed to identify many of the potential impactors that spend much of their time interior to the Earth's orbit. The next generation surveys have a good chance of imaging a bolide like 2008TC3 before it enters the atmosphere but the difficulty will lie in obtaining enough images in advance of impact to allow an accurate pre-impact orbit to be computed.
By means of a fully connected artificial neural network, we identified asteroids with the potential to impact Earth. The resulting instrument, named the Hazardous Object Identifier (HOI), was trained on the basis of an artificial set of known impactors which were generated by launching objects from Earth's surface and integrating them backward in time. HOI was able to identify 95.25% of the known impactors simulated that were present in the test set as potential impactors. In addition, HOI was able to identify 90.99% of the potentially hazardous objects identified by NASA, without being traine…
Various meteor and fireball networks exist worldwide. Most data sets which include ground-based observational data of meteors are affected by biases. The larger and faster the entering meteoroid, the brighter is the produced meteor. Hence, small and slow objects often stay undetected. This bias of meteor observations towards faster meteoroids is a challenge if quantitative population and flux models are derived. In this work the velocity distribution of objects in space is analysed by using different data sets that are not affected by this velocity bias since they include only large objects, l…
NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is the first full-scale test of the kinetic impactor method for asteroid deflection, in which a spacecraft intentionally impacts an asteroid to change its trajectory. DART represents an important first step for planetary defense technology demonstration, providing a realistic assessment of the effectiveness of the kinetic impact approach on a near-Earth asteroid. The momentum imparted to the asteroid is transferred from the impacting spacecraft and enhanced by the momentum of material ejected from the impact site. However, the magnitude of…
We present an analysis of the albedo properties of main belt asteroids detected by the All-Sky Survey of the infrared satellite AKARI. The characteristics of 5120 asteroids detected by the survey, including their sizes and albedos, were cataloged in the Asteroid Catalog Using AKARI (AcuA). Size and albedo measurements were based on the Standard Thermal Model, using inputs of infrared fluxes and absolute magnitudes. Main belt asteroids, which account for 4722 of the 5120 AcuA asteroids, have semimajor axes of 2.06 to 3.27 AU. AcuA provides a complete data set of all main belt asteroids brighter…
We study the time evolution of the impact probability for synthetic but realistic impacting and close approaching asteroids detected in a simulated all-sky survey. We use the impact probability to calculate the impact warning time as the time interval between when an object reaches a Palermo Scale value of -2 and when it impacts Earth. A simple argument shows that warning time ~ D^x with the exponent in the range [1.0,1.5] and our derived value was $x=1.3\pm0.1$. The low-precision astrometry from the single simulated all-sky survey could require many days or weeks to establish an imminent impa…
The Trojan asteroids orbit about the Lagrangian points of Jupiter and the residence times about their present location are very long for most of them. If these bodies originated in the outer Solar System, they should be mainly composed of water ice, but, in contrast with comets, all the volatiles close to the surface would have been lost long ago. Irrespective of the rotation period, and hence the surface temperature and ice sublimation rate, a dust layer exists always on the surface. We show that the timescale for resurfacing the entire surface of the Trojan asteroids is similar to that of th…
The distribution of asteroids across the Main Belt has been studied for decades to understand the compositional distribution and what that tells us about the formation and evolution of our solar system. All-sky surveys now provide orders of magnitude more data than targeted surveys. We present a method to bias-correct the asteroid population observed in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) according to size, distance, and albedo. We taxonomically classify this dataset consistent with the Bus and Bus-DeMeo systems and present the resulting taxonomic distribution. The dataset includes asteroids a…
Asteroid (16) Psyche, that for long was the largest M-type with no detection of hydration features in its spectrum, was recently discovered to have a weak 3 micron band and thus it eventually was added to the group of hydrated asteroids. Its relatively high density in combination with the high radar albedo, led to classify the asteroid as a metallic object, possibly a core of a differentiated body, remnant of "hit-and-run" collisions. The detection of hydration is, in principle, inconsistent with a pure metallic origin of this body. Here we consider the scenario that the hydration on its surfa…
Context. The populations of small bodies of the Solar System (asteroids, comets, Kuiper-Belt objects) are used to constrain the origin and evolution of the Solar System. Both their orbital distribution and composition distribution are required to track the dynamical pathway from their regions of formation to their current locations. Aims. We aim at increasing the sample of Solar System objects that have multi-filter photometry and compositional taxonomy. Methods. We search for moving objects in the archive of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We attempt at maximizing the number of detections by us…
This work presents a new parametrisation suitable for parameter-space studies of heliocentric Earth-impacting orbits. Originally motivated by the issue of potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) and the mitigation of such a risk, we show that the simultaneous analysis of all the conceivable impacting elliptical orbits is greatly facilitated by the use of a parametrisation that involves only the true anomaly at impact, the eccentricity and the inclination. While the new parametrisation is presented from an explicit planetary-defence perspective, it is general enough to be useful in analogous stu…
This work presents the model of an ejecta cloud distribution to characterise the plume generated by the impact of a projectile onto asteroids surfaces. A continuum distribution based on the combination of probability density functions is developed to describe the size, ejection speed, and ejection angles of the fragments. The ejecta distribution is used to statistically analyse the fate of the ejecta. By combining the ejecta distribution with a space-filling sampling technique, we draw samples from the distribution and assigned them a number of \emph{representative fragments} so that the evolu…
A co-orbital asteroid shares the orbit of a secondary body about its primary. Though more commonly encountered as an asteroid that shares a planet's orbit around the Sun, a co-orbital asteroid could similarly share the orbit of the Moon around the Earth. Though such asteroids would be close to Earth and so relatively bright, their rapid on-sky motion is such that they might escape detection by near-Earth asteroid surveys. The discovery of such lunar co-orbital asteroids (which we will refer to generically here as Lunar Trojans or LTs) would advance our understanding of inner Solar System orbit…
Digital tracking enables telescopes to detect asteroids several times fainter than conventional techniques. We describe our optimized methodology to acquire, process, and interpret digital tracking observations, and we apply it to probe the apparent magnitude distribution of main belt asteroids fainter than any previously detected from the ground. All-night integrations with the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) yield 95\% completeness at $R$ magnitude 25.0, and useful sensitivity to $R=25.6$ mag when we use an analytical detection model to correct flux overestimation bias. In a single DECam field ob…
Most asteroids are somewhat elongated and have non-zero lightcurve amplitudes. Such asteroids can be detected in large-scale sky surveys even if their mean magnitudes are fainter than the stated sensitivity limits. We explore the detection of elongated asteroids under a set of idealized but useful approximations. We find that objects up to 1 magnitude fainter than a survey's sensitivity limit are likely to be detected, and that the effect is most pronounced for asteroids with lightcurve amplitudes 0.1-0.4 mag.This imposes a bias on the derived size and shape distributions of the population tha…
We present an automated system called NEORANGER that regularly computes asteroid-Earth impact probabilities for objects on the Minor Planet Center's (MPC) Near-Earth-Object Confirmation Page (NEOCP) and sends out alerts of imminent impactors to registered users. In addition to potential Earth impacting objects NEORANGER also monitors for other types of interesting objects such as Earth's natural temporarily-captured satellites. The system monitors the NEOCP for objects with new data and solves, for each object, the orbital inverse problem which results in a sample of orbits that describes the,…
The Gaia satellite, planned for launch by the European Space Agency (ESA) in 2013, is the next generation astrometry mission following Hipparcos. While mapping the whole sky, the Gaia space mission is expected to discover thousands of Solar System Objects. These will include Near-Earth Asteroids and objects at Solar elongations as low as 45 degrees, which are difficult to observe with ground-based telescopes. We present the results of simulations for the detection of Trojan asteroids in the orbits of Earth and Mars by Gaia.
Context. The populations of small bodies of the Solar System (asteroids, comets, Kuiper Belt objects) are used to constrain the origin and evolution of the Solar System. Both their orbital distribution and composition distribution are required to track the dynamical pathway from their regions of formation to their current locations. Aims. We aim at increasing the sample of Solar System objects (SSOs) that have multi-filter photometry and compositional taxonomy. Methods. We search for moving objects in the SkyMapper Southern Survey. We use the predicted SSO positions to extract photometry and a…
We present the results of an unbiased asteroid survey in the mid-infrared wavelength with the Infrared Camera (IRC) onboard the Japanese infrared satellite AKARI. About 20% of the point source events recorded in the AKARI All-Sky Survey observations are not used for the IRC Point Source Catalog (IRC-PSC) in its production process because of the lack of multiple detection by position. Asteroids, which are moving objects on the celestial sphere, remain in these "residual events". We identify asteroids out of the residual events by matching them with the positions of known asteroids. For the iden…
The nature and physical properties of asteroids, in particular those orbiting in the near-Earth space, are of scientific interest and practical importance. Exoplanet surveys can be excellent resources to detect asteroids, both already known and new objects. This is due their similar observing requirements: large fields of view, long sequences, and short cadence. If the targeted fields are not located far from the ecliptic, many asteroids will cross occasionally the field of view. We present two complementary methodologies to identify asteroids serendipitously observed in large-area astronomica…
Potentially impacting asteroids were analysed for their impact risk on the Earth. To this end, the Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) tool is currently being developed. The tool's modules are described and their validation is documented. Based on the asteroid ephemeris, the tool calculates the impact location probability distribution on the surface of the Earth (in the literature, occasionally referred to as risk corridor). NASA's Near Earth Object (NEO) risk list served as the source for asteroid ephemerides. The Line of Variation (LOV) method was employed to find virt…
The Mars crossing region constitutes a path to deliver asteroids from the Inner Main Belt to the Earth crossing space. While both the Inner Main Belt and the population of Earth crossing asteroids contains a significant fraction of asteroids belonging to the V taxonomic class, only two of such V-type asteroids has been detected in the Mars crossing region up to now. In this work, we searched for asteroids belonging to the V class among the population of Mars crossing asteroids, in order to support alternative paths to the delivery of this bodies into the Earth crossing region. We selected 18 c…
The 2009 WZ104 asteroid was discovered with 68-cm Schmidt Catalina Sky Survey telescope of Mount Lemmon Observatory in Arizona (USA) in 25 of November 2009. The observations of the new object were confirmed with 60-cm reflector of Schiaparelli observatory (Italy) and 35-cm Schmidt - Cassegrain telescope of Alter Saltzberg observatory (Vienna, Austria). The asteroid was attributed as potentially hazardous near Earth asteroid. The minimal orbit intersection distance is 0.0304 a.e. The observations of the 2009 WZ104 asteroid were continued with MTM-500M 50-cm meniscus telescope and ZA-320M 32-cm …
The recent publication by Siraj & Loeb (2021; Nature Scientific Reports 11, 3803) attempts to revive the debate over whether the Chicxulub impactor was a comet or an asteroid. They calculate that ~20% of long-period comets impacting Earth will have first been disrupted by passage inside the Sun's Roche limit, generating thousands of fragments, each the needed size of the Chicxulub impactor. This would increase the impact rate of comets by a factor ~15, making them as likely to hit the Earth as an asteroid. They also argue that a comet would be a factor of 10 more likely to match the geochemica…
Granular material that is bound by the low gravity of a small asteroid is mobilized by slow velocity impacts. These splashes generated by impacts might play an important role in sculpting the asteroid's surface. In laboratory experiments we characterize the ejecta generated by spherical 150 $\rm μm$ diameter basalt grains impacting a granular bed at 0.8 m/s. We find that such an impact typically leads to less than 10 particles being ejected from the granular bed, with typical ejecta trajectories rising to less than one particle diameter above the surface. That is, the observed impacts are high…
Recent dynamical studies have identified pairs of asteroids that reside in nearly identical heliocentric orbits. Possible formation scenarios for these systems include dissociation of binary asteroids, collisional disruption of a single parent body, or spin-up and rotational fission of a rubble-pile. Aside from detailed dynamical analyses and measurement of rotational light curves, little work has been done to investigate the colors or spectra of these unusual objects. A photometric and spectroscopic survey was conducted to determine the reflectance properties of asteroid pairs. New observatio…
As astronomical photometric surveys continue to tile the sky repeatedly, the potential to pushdetection thresholds to fainter limits increases; however, traditional digital-tracking methods cannotachieve this efficiently beyond time scales where motion is approximately linear. In this paper weprototype an optimal detection scheme that samples under a user defined prior on a parameterizationof the motion space, maps these sampled trajectories to the data space, and computes an optimalsignal-matched filter for computing the signal to noise ratio of trial trajectories. We demonstrate thecapabilit…
The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) is an all-sky survey primarily aimed at detecting potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroids. Apart from the astrometry of asteroids, it also produces their photometric measurements that contain information about asteroid rotation and their shape. To increase the current number of asteroids with a known shape and spin state, we reconstructed asteroid models from ATLAS photometry that was available for approximately 180,000 asteroids observed between 2015 and 2018. We made use of the light-curve inversion method implemented in the Astero…
The Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) is a synoptic survey designed to explore the transient and variable sky in a wide variety of cadences. We use PTF observations of fields that were observed multiple times (>=10) per night, for several nights, to find asteroids, construct their lightcurves and measure their rotation periods. Here we describe the pipeline we use to achieve these goals and present the results from the first four (overlapping) PTF fields analyzed as part of this program. These fields, which cover an area of 21 deg^2, were observed on four nights with a cadence of ~20 min. Our pi…
We describe systematic ranging, an orbit determination technique especially suitable to assess the near-term Earth impact hazard posed by newly discovered asteroids. For these late warning cases, the time interval covered by the observations is generally short, perhaps a few hours or even less, which leads to severe degeneracies in the orbit estimation process. The systematic ranging approach gets around these degeneracies by performing a raster scan in the poorly-constrained space of topocentric range and range rate, while the plane of sky position and motion are directly tied to the recorded…
The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft successfully performed the first test of a kinetic impactor for asteroid deflection by impacting Dimorphos, the secondary of near-Earth binary asteroid (65803) Didymos, and changing the orbital period of Dimorphos. A change in orbital period of approximately 7 minutes was expected if the incident momentum from the DART spacecraft was directly transferred to the asteroid target in a perfectly inelastic collision, but studies of the probable impact conditions and asteroid properties indicated that a considerable momentum enhancement ($β$) wa…
The European Space Agency Gaia satellite, planned for launch in late 2013, will perform systematic astrometric observations of the whole sky over a five year period. During this mission many thousands of Solar System Objects down to magnitude V=20 will be observed including Near-Earth Asteroids and objects at Solar elongations as low as 45 degrees, which are difficult to observe with ground-based telescopes. We simulated the detection of Trojan asteroids in the orbits of Earth and Mars by Gaia. We find that Gaia will not detect the Earth Trojan 2010 TK7 although it will detect any Earth Trojan…
We have carried out simulations to predict the performance of a new space-based telescopic survey operating at thermal infrared wavelengths that seeks to discover and characterize a large fraction of the potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroid (NEA) population. Two potential architectures for the survey were considered: one located at the Earth-Sun L1 Lagrange point, and one in a Venus-trailing orbit. A sample cadence was formulated and tested, allowing for the self-follow-up necessary for objects discovered in the daytime sky on Earth. Synthetic populations of NEAs with sizes >=140 m in eff…
Asteroid spectroscopy reflects surface mineralogy. There are few thousand asteroids whose surfaces have been observed spectrally. Determining the surface properties of those objects is important for many practical and scientific applications, such as for example developing impact deflection strategies or studying history and evolution of the Solar System and planet formation. The aim of this study is to develop a pre-selection method that can be utilized in searching for asteroids of any taxonomic complex. The method could then be utilized im multiple applications such as searching for the mis…
Asteroid pairs are genetically related asteroids that recently separated ($<$few million years), but still reside on similar heliocentric orbits. A few hundred of these systems have been identified, primarily in the asteroid main-belt. Here we studied a newly discovered pair of near-Earth objects (NEOs): 2019 PR2 and 2019 QR6. Based on broad-band photometry, we found these asteroids to be spectrally similar to D-types, a type rare amongst NEOs. We recovered astrometric observations for both asteroids from the Catalina Sky Survey from 2005, which significantly improved their fitted orbits. With…
The June 2, 2018, impact of asteroid 2018 LA over Botswana is only the second asteroid detected in space prior to impacting over land. Here, we report on the successful recovery of meteorites. Additional astrometric data refine the approach orbit and define the spin period and shape of the asteroid. Video observations of the fireball constrain the asteroid's position in its orbit and were used to triangulate the location of the fireball's main flare over the Central Kalahari Game Reserve. 23 meteorites were recovered. A consortium study of eight of these classifies Motopi Pan as a HED polymict…
Near-Earth asteroid 2014 AA entered the Earth's atmosphere on 2014 January 2, only 21 hours after being discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey. In this paper we compute the trajectory of 2014 AA by combining the available optical astrometry, seven ground-based observations over 69 minutes, and the International Monitoring system detection of the atmospheric impact infrasonic airwaves in a least-squares orbit estimation filter. The combination of these two sources of observations results in a tremendous improvement in the orbit uncertainties. The impact time is 3:05 UT with a 1-sigma uncertainty…
The Near-Earth Object Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (NEOWISE) reactivation mission has completed its third year of surveying the sky in the thermal infrared for near-Earth asteroids and comets. NEOWISE collects simultaneous observations at 3.4 um and 4.6 um of solar system objects passing through its field of regard. These data allow for the determination of total thermal emission from bodies in the inner solar system, and thus the sizes of these objects. In this paper we present thermal model fits of asteroid diameters for 170 NEOs and 6110 MBAs detected during the third year of the sur…
A Near-Earth Object Model Calibrated to Earth Impactors
Curtin University（科廷大学）；International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research, Curtin University（科廷大学国际射电天文学研究中心）；Space Science and Technology Centre, Curtin University（科廷大学空间科学与技术中心）；Southwest Research Institute（西南研究所）；NASA Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science Division, Johnson Space Center（美国国家航空航天局约翰逊航天中心天体材料研究与探索科学部）；SETI Institute（搜寻地外文明研究所）；Astronomical Society of Victoria（维多利亚天文学会）；University of Sharjah（沙迦大学）；Sharjah Academy for Astronomy, Space Sciences and Technology（沙迦天文学、空间科学与技术学院）；Faculty of Sciences Semlalia（塞姆拉利亚理学院）
Asteroid impacts pose a major threat to all life on Earth. The age of the dinosaurs was abruptly ended by a 10-km-diameter asteroid. Currently, a nuclear device is the only means of deflecting large Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) away from an Earth-impacting trajectory. The Enhanced Kinetic Impactor (EKI) concept is proposed to deflect large PHAs via maneuvering space rocks. First, an unmanned spacecraft is launched to rendezvous with an intermediate Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA). Then, more than one hundred tons of rocks are collected from the NEA as the EKI. The NEA can also be captured …
Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) that orbit the Sun on or within Earth's orbit are tricky to detect for Earth-based observers due to their proximity to the Sun in the sky. These small bodies hold clues to the dynamical history of the inner solar system as well as the physical evolution of planetesimals in extreme environments. Populations in this region include the Atira and Vatira asteroids, as well as Venus and Earth co-orbital asteroids. Here we present a twilight search for these small bodies, conducted using the 1.2-m Oschin Schmidt and the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) camera at Palomar Obser…
The 1908 June 30 Tunguska Event (TE) is one of the best studied cases of cosmic body impacting the Earth with global effects. However, still today, significant doubts are casted on the different proposed event reconstructions, because of shortage of reliable information and uncertainties of available data. In the present work, we would like to revisit the atmospheric fragmentation of the Tunguska Cosmic Body (TCB) by taking into account the possibility that a metre-sized fragment could cause the formation of the Lake Cheko, located at about $9$~km North-West from the epicentre. We performed or…
We present a fireball detected in the night sky over Kyoto, Japan on UT 2017 April 28 at ${\rm 15^{h}\,58^{m}\,19^{s}}$ by the SonotaCo Network. The absolute visual magnitude is $M_{\rm v}$=$-$4.10$\pm$0.42mag. Luminous light curves obtain a meteoroid mass $m$=29$\pm$1g, corresponding to the size $a_{\rm s}$=2.7$\pm$0.1cm. Orbital similarity assessed by D-criterions (cf. $D_{\rm SH}$=0.0079) has identified a likely parent, the binary near-Earth asteroid (164121) 2003 YT$_1$. The suggested binary formation process is a YORP-driven rotational disintegration (Pravec & Harris 2007). The asynchrono…
We propose a LSST Solar System near-Sun Survey, to be implemented during twilight hours, that extends the seasonal reach of LSST to its maximum as fresh sky is uncovered at about 50 square degrees per night (1500 sq. deg. per lunation) in the morning eastern sky, and surveyable sky is lost at the same rate to the western evening sky due to the Earth's synodic motion. By establishing near-horizon fence post picket lines to the far west and far east we address Solar System science use cases (including Near Earth Objects, Interior Earth Objects, Potentially Hazardous Asteroids, Earth Trojans, nea…
For many years, it was assumed that Jupiter prevented the Earth from being subject to a punishing impact regime that would greatly hinder the development of life. Here, we present the 4th in a series of studies investigating this hypothesis. Previously, we examined the effect of Jupiter's mass on the impact rate experienced by Earth. Here, we extend that approach to consider the influence of Jupiter's orbital eccentricity and inclination on the impact rate. We first consider scenarios in which Jupiter's orbital eccentricity was somewhat higher and somewhat lower than that in our Solar System. …
On 2010 October 13, the Apollo type 20-meter asteroid 2010 TB54 passed within 6.1 lunar distances from the Earth. On the same date, but 11.4 hours earlier, exactly at 02:52:32 UT, the sky over central Poland was illuminated by -8.6 magnitude PF131010 Ciechanow fireball. The trajectory and orbit of the fireball was computed using multi-station data of Polish Fireball Network (PFN). The results indicate that the orbit of the meteoroid which caused the PF131010 fireball is similar to the orbit of 2010 TB54 asteroid and both bodies may be related. Moreover, two days before appearance of Ciechanow …
We present initial results from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE), a four-band all-sky thermal infrared survey that produces data well suited to measuring the physical properties of asteroids, and the NEOWISE enhancement to the WISE mission allowing for detailed study of Solar system objects. Using a NEATM thermal model fitting routine we compute diameters for over 100,000 Main Belt asteroids from their IR thermal flux, with errors better than 10%. We then incorporate literature values of visible measurements (in the form of the H absolute magnitude) to determine albedos. Using th…
Earth Trojan Asteroids are an important but elusive population that co-orbit with Earth at the L4 and L5 Lagrange points. There is only one known, but a large population is theoretically stable and could provide insight into our solar system's past and present as well as planetary defense. In this paper, we present the results of an Earth Trojan survey that uses a novel shift-and-stack detection method on two nights of data from the Dark Energy Camera. We find no new Earth Trojan Asteroids. We calculate an upper limit on the population that is consistent with previous searches despite much les…
We derived 90% confidence limits (CL) on the interstellar number density ($ρ_{IS}^{CL}$) of interstellar objects (ISO; comets and asteroids) as a function of the slope of their size-frequency distribution and limiting absolute magnitude. To account for gravitational focusing, we first generated a quasi-realistic ISO population to ~750 au from the Sun and propagated it forward in time to generate a steady state population of ISOs with heliocentric distance <50 au. We then simulated the detection of the synthetic ISOs using pointing data for each image and average detection efficiencies for each…
