A local agglomeration of cooperators can support the survival or spreading of cooperation, even when cooperation is predicted to die out according to the replicator equation, which is often used in evolutionary game theory to study the spreading and disappearance of strategies. In this paper, it is shown that success-driven motion can trigger such local agglomeration and may, therefore, be used to supplement other mechanisms supporting cooperation, like reputation or punishment. Success-driven motion is formulated here as a function of the game-theoretical payoffs. It can change the outcome and dynamics of spatial games dramatically, in particular as it causes attractive or repulsive interaction forces. These forces act when the spatial distributions of strategies are inhomogeneous. However, even when starting with homogeneous initial conditions, small perturbations can trigger large inhomogeneities by a pattern-formation instability, when certain conditions are fulfilled. Here, these instability conditions are studied for the prisoner's dilemma and the snowdrift game. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that asymmetrical diffusion can drive social, economic, and biological systems into the unstable regime, if these would be stable without diffusion.
Social unrest may reflect a variety of factors such as poverty, unemployment, and social injustice. Despite the many possible contributing factors, the timing of violent protests in North Africa and the Middle East in 2011 as well as earlier riots in 2008 coincides with large peaks in global food prices. We identify a specific food price threshold above which protests become likely. These observations suggest that protests may reflect not only long-standing political failings of governments, but also the sudden desperate straits of vulnerable populations. If food prices remain high, there is l…
Social Coding Sites (SCSs) are social media services for sharing software development projects on the Web, and many open source projects are currently being developed on SCSs. One of the characteristics of SCSs is that they provide a platform on social networks that encourages collaboration between developers with the same interests and purpose. For example, external developers can easily report bugs and improvements to the project members. In this paper, we investigate keys to the success of projects on SCSs based on large data consisting of more than three hundred thousand projects. We focus…
This paper studies the signed networks in the presence of stubborn links, based on the structural balance theory. Each agent in the network has a mixture of positive and negative links represent friendly and antagonistic interactions and his stubbornness about interactions. Structural balance theory affirms that in signed social networks with simultaneous friendly/hostile interactions, there is a general tendency of evolving over time to reduce the tensions. From this perspective, individuals iteratively invert their own sentiments to reduce the felt tensions induced by imbalance. In this pape…
Individuals might abstain from participating in an instance of an evolutionary game for various reasons, ranging from lack of interest to risk aversion. In order to understand the consequences of such diverse activity patterns on the evolution of cooperation, we study a weak prisoner's dilemma where each player's participation is probabilistic rather than certain. Players that do not participate get a null payoff and are unable to replicate. We show that inactivity introduces cascading failures of cooperation, which are particularly severe on scale-free networks with frequently inactive hubs. …
Prevention and intervention work done within community settings often face unique analytic challenges for rigorous evaluations. Since community prevention work (often geographically isolated) cannot be controlled in the same way other prevention programs and these communities have an increased level of interpersonal interactions, rigorous evaluations are needed. Even when the `gold standard' randomized control trials are implemented within community intervention work, the threats to internal validity can be called into question given informal social spread of information in closed network sett…
According to Thomas Hobbes' Leviathan [1651; 2008 (Touchstone, New York), English Ed], "the life of man [is] solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short," and it would need powerful social institutions to establish social order. In reality, however, social cooperation can also arise spontaneously, based on local interactions rather than centralized control. The self-organization of cooperative behavior is particularly puzzling for social dilemmas related to sharing natural resources or creating common goods. Such situations are often described by the prisoner's dilemma. Here, we report the sudde…
The structure of collaboration is known to be of great importance for the success of scientific endeavors. In particular, various types of social capital employed in co-authored work and projects bridging disciplinary boundaries have attracted researchers' interest. Almost all previous studies, however, use samples with an inherent survivor bias, i.e., they focus on papers that have already been published. In contrast, our article examines the chances for getting a working paper published by using a unique dataset of 245,000 papers uploaded to arXiv. ArXiv is a popular preprint platform in Phy…
We study data on perfumes and their odour descriptors - notes - to understand how note compositions, called accords, influence successful fragrance formulas. We obtain accords which tend to be present in perfumes that receive significantly more customer ratings. Our findings show that the most popular notes and the most over-represented accords are different to those that have the strongest effect to the perfume ratings. We also used network centrality to understand which notes have the highest potential to enhance note compositions. We find that large degree notes, such as musk and vanilla as…
Statistical physicists and social scientists both study extensively some characteristic features of the unequal distributions of energy, cluster or avalanche sizes and of income, wealth etc among the particles (or sites) and population respectively. While physicists concentrate on the self-similar (fractal) structure (and the characteristic exponents) of the largest (percolating) cluster or avalanche, social scientists study the inequality indices like Gini and Kolkata etc given by the non-linearity of the Lorenz function representing the cumulative fraction of the wealth possessed by differen…
Fashion is a multi-billion dollar industry with social and economic implications worldwide. To gain popularity, brands want to be represented by the top popular models. As new faces are selected using stringent (and often criticized) aesthetic criteria, \emph{a priori} predictions are made difficult by information cascades and other fundamental trend-setting mechanisms. However, the increasing usage of social media within and without the industry may be affecting this traditional system. We therefore seek to understand the ingredients of success of fashion models in the age of Instagram. Combi…
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Max Planck Institute SWS（马克斯·普朗克软件系统研究所）
Requests are at the core of many social media systems such as question & answer sites and online philanthropy communities. While the success of such requests is critical to the success of the community, the factors that lead community members to satisfy a request are largely unknown. Success of a request depends on factors like who is asking, how they are asking, when are they asking, and most critically what is being requested, ranging from small favors to substantial monetary donations. We present a case study of altruistic requests in an online community where all requests ask for the very …
We study an extension of Axelrod's model for social influence, in which cultural drift is represented as random perturbations, while mass media are introduced by means of an external field. In this scenario, we investigate how the modular structure of social networks affects the propagation of mass media messages across the society. The community structure of social networks is represented by coupled random networks, in which two random graphs are connected by intercommunity links. Considering inhomogeneous mass media fields, we study the conditions for successful message spreading and find a …
We address the question to what extent the success of scientific articles is due to social influence. Analyzing a data set of over 100000 publications from the field of Computer Science, we study how centrality in the coauthorship network differs between authors who have highly cited papers and those who do not. We further show that a machine learning classifier, based only on coauthorship network centrality measures at time of publication, is able to predict with high precision whether an article will be highly cited five years after publication. By this we provide quantitative insight into t…
Can we predict top-performing products, services, or businesses by only monitoring the behavior of a small set of individuals? Although most previous studies focused on the predictive power of "hub" individuals with many social contacts, which sources of customer behavioral data are needed to address this question remains unclear, mostly due to the scarcity of available datasets that simultaneously capture individuals' purchasing patterns and social interactions. Here, we address this question in a unique, large-scale dataset that combines individuals' credit-card purchasing history with their…
The success of imitation as an evolutionary driving force in spatial games has often been questioned, especially for social dilemmas such as the snowdrift game, where the most profitable may be the mixed phase sustaining both the cooperative as well as the defective strategy. Here we reexamine this assumption by investigating the evolution of cooperation in spatial social dilemma games, where instead of pure strategies players can adopt emotional profiles of their neighbors. For simplicity, the emotional profile of each player is determined by two pivotal factors only, namely how it behaves to…
Homophily and social influence are the fundamental mechanisms that drive the evolution of attitudes, beliefs and behaviour within social groups. Homophily relates the similarity between pairs of individuals' attitudinal states to their frequency of interaction, and hence structural tie strength, while social influence causes the convergence of individuals' states during interaction. Building on these basic elements, we propose a new mathematical modelling framework to describe the evolution of attitudes within a group of interacting agents. Specifically, our model describes sub-conscious attit…
The ways in which an innovation (e.g., new behaviour, idea, technology, product) diffuses among people can determine its success or failure. In this paper, we address the problem of diffusion of innovations over multiplex social networks where the neighbours of a person belong to one or multiple networks (or layers) such as friends, families, or colleagues. To this end, we generalise one of the basic game-theoretic diffusion models, called networked coordination game, for multiplex networks. We present analytical results for this extended model and validate them through a simulation study, fin…
Quantum strategies have been successfully applied to game theory for years. However, as a reverse problem of game theory, the theory of mechanism design is ignored by physicists. In this paper, the theory of mechanism design is generalized to a quantum domain. The main result is that by virtue of a quantum mechanism, agents who satisfy a certain condition can combat "bad" social choice rules instead of being restricted by the traditional mechanism design theory.
Whether or not to change strategy depends not only on the personal success of each individual, but also on the success of others. Using this as motivation, we study the evolution of cooperation in games that describe social dilemmas, where the propensity to adopt a different strategy depends both on individual fitness as well as on the strategies of neighbors. Regardless of whether the evolutionary process is governed by pairwise or group interactions, we show that plugging into the "wisdom of groups" strongly promotes cooperative behavior. The more the wider knowledge is taken into account th…
An explanation for the political processes leading to the sudden collapse of empires and states would be useful for understanding both historical and contemporary political events. We seek a general description of state collapse spanning eras and cultures, from small kingdoms to continental empires, drawing on a suitably diverse range of historical sources. Our aim is to provide an accessible verbal hypothesis that bridges the gap between mathematical and social methodology. We use game-theory to determine whether factions within a state will accept the political status quo, or wish to better …
Influence overlap is a universal phenomenon in influence spreading for social networks. In this paper, we argue that the redundant influence generated by influence overlap cause negative effect for maximizing spreading influence. Firstly, we present a theoretical method to calculate the influence overlap and record the redundant influence. Then in term of eliminating redundant influence, we present two algorithms, namely, Degree-Redundant-Influence (DRS) and Degree-Second-Neighborhood (DSN) for multiple spreaders identification. The experiments for four empirical social networks successfully v…
Online data provide a way to monitor how users behave in social systems like social networks and online games, and understand which features turn an ordinary individual into a successful one. Here, we propose to study individual performance and success in Multiplayer Online Battle Arena (MOBA) games. Our purpose is to identify those behaviors and playing styles that are characteristic of players with high skill level and that distinguish them from other players. To this aim, we study Defense of the ancient 2 (Dota 2), a popular MOBA game. Our findings highlight three main aspects to be success…
