We study an extension of Axelrod's model for social influence, in which cultural drift is represented as random perturbations, while mass media are introduced by means of an external field. In this scenario, we investigate how the modular structure of social networks affects the propagation of mass media messages across the society. The community structure of social networks is represented by coupled random networks, in which two random graphs are connected by intercommunity links. Considering inhomogeneous mass media fields, we study the conditions for successful message spreading and find a novel phase diagram in the multidimensional parameter space. These findings show that social modularity effects are of paramount importance in order to design successful, cost-effective advertising campaigns.
Many real-world networks display a community structure. We study two random graph models that create a network with similar community structure as a given network. One model preserves the exact community structure of the original network, while the other model only preserves the set of communities and the vertex degrees. These models show that community structure is an important determinant of the behavior of percolation processes on networks, such as information diffusion or virus spreading: the community structure can both \textit{enforce} as well as \textit{inhibit} diffusion processes. Our…
Random walks on networks is the standard tool for modelling spreading processes in social and biological systems. This first-order Markov approach is used in conventional community detection, ranking, and spreading analysis although it ignores a potentially important feature of the dynamics: where flow moves to may depend on where it comes from. Here we analyse pathways from different systems, and while we only observe marginal consequences for disease spreading, we show that ignoring the effects of second-order Markov dynamics has important consequences for community detection, ranking, and i…
We study a stochastic model for the coevolution of a process of opinion formation in a population of agents and the network which underlies their interaction. Interaction links can break when agents fail to reach an opinion agreement. The structure of the network and the distribution of opinions over the population evolve towards a state where the population is divided into disconnected communities whose agents share the same opinion. The statistical properties of this final state vary considerably as the model parameters are changed. Community sizes and their internal connectivity are the qua…
The identification of the minimal set of nodes that maximizes the propagation of information is one of the most relevant problems in network science. In this paper, we introduce a new method to find the set of initial spreaders to maximize the information propagation in complex networks. We evaluate this method in assortative networks and verify that degree-degree correlation plays a fundamental role in the spreading dynamics. Simulation results show that our algorithm is statistically similar, regarding the average size of outbreaks, to the greedy approach in real-world networks. However, our…
Community structure is an important factor in the behavior of real-world networks because it strongly affects the stability and thus the phase transition order of the spreading dynamics. We here propose a reversible social contagion model of community networks that includes the factor of social reinforcement. In our model an individual adopts a social contagion when the number of received units of information exceeds its adoption threshold. We use mean-field approximation to describe our proposed model, and the results agree with numerical simulations. The numerical simulations and theoretical…
The design of an efficient curing policy, able to stem an epidemic process at an affordable cost, has to account for the structure of the population contact network supporting the contagious process. Thus, we tackle the problem of allocating recovery resources among the population, at the lowest cost possible to prevent the epidemic from persisting indefinitely in the network. Specifically, we analyze a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process spreading over a weighted graph, by means of a first-order mean-field approximation. First, we describe the influence of the contact network on…
We study the effect of localized attacks on a multiplex spatial network, where each layer is a network of communities. The system is considered functional when the nodes belong to the giant component in all the multiplex layers. The communities are of linear size $ζ$, such that within them any pair of nodes are linked with same probability, and additionally nodes in nearby communities are linked with a different (typically smaller) probability. This model can represent an interdependent infrastructure system of cities where within the city there are many links while between cities there are fe…
Identifying highly susceptible individuals in spreading processes is of great significance in controlling outbreaks. In this paper, we explore the susceptibility of people in susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) and rumor spreading dynamics. We first study the impact of community structure on people's susceptibility. Despite that the community structure can reduce the infected population given same infection rates, it will not deterministically affect nodes' susceptibility. We find the susceptibility of individuals is sensitive to the choice of spreading dynamics. For SIR spreading, since th…
In this work we consider the influence of mass media in the dynamics of the two-dimensional Sznajd model. This influence acts as an external field, and it is introduced in the model by means of a probability $p$ of the agents to follow the media opinion. We performed Monte Carlo simulations on square lattices with different sizes, and our numerical results suggest a change on the critical behavior of the model, with the absence of the usual phase transition for $p>\sim 0.18$. Another effect of the probability $p$ is to decrease the average relaxation times $τ$, that are log-normally distribute…
Most researches on adaptive networks mainly concentrate on the properties of steady state, but neglect transient dynamics. In this study, we pay attention to the emergence of community structures in transient process and the effects of community-based control strategies on epidemic spreading. First, by normalizing modularity $Q$, we investigate the evolution of community structures during the transient process, and find that very strong community structures are induced by rewiring mechanism in the early stage of epidemic spreading, which remarkably delays the outbreaks of epidemic. Then we stu…
Topological aspects, like community structure, and temporal activity patterns, like burstiness, have been shown to severly influence the speed of spreading in temporal networks. We study the influence of the topology on the susceptible-infected (SI) spreading on time stamped communication networks, as obtained from a dataset of mobile phone records. We consider city level networks with intra- and inter-city connections. The networks using only intra-city links are usually sparse, where the spreading depends mainly on the average degree. The inter-city links serve as bridges in spreading, speed…
We address the diffusion of information about the COVID-19 with a massive data analysis on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, Reddit and Gab. We analyze engagement and interest in the COVID-19 topic and provide a differential assessment on the evolution of the discourse on a global scale for each platform and their users. We fit information spreading with epidemic models characterizing the basic reproduction numbers $R_0$ for each social media platform. Moreover, we characterize information spreading from questionable sources, finding different volumes of misinformation in each platform. However, in…
Promoting information spreading is a booming research topic in network science community. However, the exiting studies about promoting information spreading seldom took into account the human memory, which plays an important role in the spreading dynamics. In this paper we propose a non-Markovian information spreading model on complex networks, in which every informed node contacts a neighbor by using the memory of neighbor's accumulated contact numbers in the past. We systematically study the information spreading dynamics on uncorrelated configuration networks and a group of $22$ real-world …
We investigate the predictability of successful memes using their early spreading patterns in the underlying social networks. We propose and analyze a comprehensive set of features and develop an accurate model to predict future popularity of a meme given its early spreading patterns. Our paper provides the first comprehensive comparison of existing predictive frameworks. We categorize our features into three groups: influence of early adopters, community concentration, and characteristics of adoption time series. We find that features based on community structure are the most powerful predict…
In the past few decades, the frequency of pandemics has been increased due to the growth of urbanization and mobility among countries. Since a disease spreading in one country could become a pandemic with a potential worldwide humanitarian and economic impact, it is important to develop models to estimate the probability of a worldwide pandemic. In this paper, we propose a model of disease spreading in a structural modular complex network (having communities) and study how the number of bridge nodes $n$ that connect communities affects disease spread. We find that our model can be described at…
Information spreading in online social communities has attracted tremendous attention due to its utmost practical values in applications. Despite that several individual-level diffusion data have been investigated, we still lack the detailed understanding of the spreading pattern of information. Here, by comparing information flows and social links in a blog community, we find that the diffusion processes are induced by three different spreading mechanisms: social spreading, self-promotion and broadcast. Although numerous previous studies have employed epidemic spreading models to simulate inf…
Network analysis is an important tool in understanding the behavior of complex systems of interacting entities. However, due to the limitations of data gathering technologies, some interactions might be missing from the network model. This is a ubiquitous problem in all domains that use network analysis, from social networks to hyper-linked web networks to biological networks. Consequently, an important question in analyzing networks is to understand how increasing the noise level (i.e. percentage of missing edges) affects different network parameters. In this paper we evaluate the effect of n…
Community structures detection in signed network is very important for understanding not only the topology structures of signed networks, but also the functions of them, such as information diffusion, epidemic spreading, etc. In this paper, we develop a joint nonnegative matrix factorization model to detect community structures. In addition, we propose modified partition density to evaluate the quality of community structures. We use it to determine the appropriate number of communities. The effectiveness of our approach is demonstrated based on both synthetic and real-world networks.
The most critical time for information to spread is in the aftermath of a serious emergency, crisis, or disaster. Individuals affected by such situations can now turn to an array of communication channels, from mobile phone calls and text messages to social media posts, when alerting social ties. These channels drastically improve the speed of information in a time-sensitive event, and provide extant records of human dynamics during and afterward the event. Retrospective analysis of such anomalous events provides researchers with a class of "found experiments" that may be used to better unders…
In temporal networks, both the topology of the underlying network and the timings of interaction events can be crucial in determining how some dynamic process mediated by the network unfolds. We have explored the limiting case of the speed of spreading in the SI model, set up such that an event between an infectious and susceptible individual always transmits the infection. The speed of this process sets an upper bound for the speed of any dynamic process that is mediated through the interaction events of the network. With the help of temporal networks derived from large scale time-stamped dat…
The spreading of virus infection is here simulated over artificial human networks. The real-space urban life of people is modeled as a modified scale-free network with constraints. A scale-free network has been adopted in several studies for modeling on-line communities so far but is modified here for the aim to represent peoples' social behaviors where the generated communities are restricted reflecting the spatiotemporal constraints in the real life. Furthermore, the networks have been extended by introducing multiple cliques in the initial step of network construction and enabling people to…
We present a minimal yet empirically-grounded theory for the spread of online harms (e.g. misinformation, hate) across current multi-platform social media and future Metaverses. New physics emerges from the interplay between the intrinsic heterogeneity among online communities and platforms, their clustering dynamics generated through user-created links and sudden moderator shutdowns, and the contagion process. The theory provides an online `R-nought' criterion to prevent system-wide spreading; it predicts re-entrant spreading phases; it establishes the level of digital vaccination required fo…
Recent violent political extremist events in Brazil and epidemic modeling: The role of a SIS-like model on the understanding of spreading and control of radicalism
In this work, we address a multicoupled dynamics on complex networks with tunable structural segregation. Specifically, we work on a networked epidemic spreading under a vaccination campaign with agents in favor and against the vaccine. Our results show that such coupled dynamics exhibits a myriad of phenomena such as nonequilibrium transitions accompanied by bistability. Besides we observe the emergence of an intermediate optimal segregation level where the community structure enhances negative opinions over vaccination but counterintuitively hinders - rather than favoring - the global diseas…
We study numerically how the structures of distinct networks influence the epidemic dynamics in contact process. We first find that the variability difference between homogeneous and heterogeneous networks is very narrow, although the heterogeneous structures can induce the lighter prevalence. Contrary to non-community networks, strong community structures can cause the secondary outbreak of prevalence and two peaks of variability appeared. Especially in the local community, the extraordinarily large variability in early stage of the outbreak makes the prediction of epidemic spreading hard. Im…
A number of predictors have been suggested to detect the most influential spreaders of information in online social media across various domains such as Twitter or Facebook. In particular, degree, PageRank, k-core and other centralities have been adopted to rank the spreading capability of users in information dissemination media. So far, validation of the proposed predictors has been done by simulating the spreading dynamics rather than following real information flow in social networks. Consequently, only model-dependent contradictory results have been achieved so far for the best predictor.…
Epidemic-like spreading processes on top of multilayered interconnected complex networks reveal a rich phase diagram of intertwined competition effects. A recent study by the authors [Granell et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 128701 (2013)] presented the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemics, and the spreading of information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. The results in the case in which awareness implies total immunization to the disease, revealed the existence of a metacritical point at which the critica…
Information diffusion, spreading of infectious diseases, and spreading of rumors are fundamental processes occurring in real-life networks. In many practical cases, one can observe when nodes become infected, but the underlying network, over which a contagion or information propagates, is hidden. Inferring properties of the underlying network is important since these properties can be used for constraining infections, forecasting, viral marketing, and so on. Moreover, for many applications, it is sufficient to recover only coarse high-level properties of this network rather than all its edges.…
The world of network science is fascinating and filled with complex phenomena that we aspire to understand. One of them is the dynamics of spreading processes over complex networked structures. Building the knowledge-base in the field where we can face more than one spreading process propagating over a network that has more than one layer is a challenging task, as the complexity comes both from the environment in which the spread happens and from characteristics and interplay of spreads' propagation. As this cross-disciplinary field bringing together computer science, network science, biology …
Searching for influential spreaders in complex networks is an issue of great significance for applications across various domains, ranging from the epidemic control, innovation diffusion, viral marketing, social movement to idea propagation. In this paper, we first display some of the most important theoretical models that describe spreading processes, and then discuss the problem of locating both the individual and multiple influential spreaders respectively. Recent approaches in these two topics are presented. For the identification of privileged single spreaders, we summarize several widely…
We study the structure of loops in networks using the notion of modulus of loop families. We introduce a new measure of network clustering by quantifying the richness of families of (simple) loops. Modulus tries to minimize the expected overlap among loops by spreading the expected link-usage optimally. We propose weighting networks using these expected link-usages to improve classical community detection algorithms. We show that the proposed method enhances the performance of certain algorithms, such as spectral partitioning and modularity maximization heuristics, on standard benchmarks.
We investigate the spreading of information through Twitter messaging related to the spread of Ebola in western Africa using epidemic based dynamic models. Diffusive spreading leads to NLPDE models and fixed point analysis yields systems of NLODE models. When tweets are mapped as connected nodes in a graph and are treated as a time sequenced Markov chain, TSMC, then by the Kurtz theorem these specific paths can be identified as being near solutions to systems of ordinary differential equations that in the large N limit retain many of the features of the original Tweet dynamics. Constraints on …
Protecting interventions of many types (both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical) can be deployed against the spreading of a communicable disease, as the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically shown. Here we investigate in detail the effects at the population level of interventions that provide an asymmetric protection between the people involved in a single interaction. Masks of different filtration types, either protecting mainly the wearer or the contacts of the wearer, are a prominent example of these interventions. By means of analytical calculations and extensive simulations of s…
Studying temporal dynamics of topics in social media is very useful to understand online user behaviors. Most of the existing work on this subject usually monitors the global trends, ignoring variation among communities. Since users from different communities tend to have varying tastes and interests, capturing community-level temporal change can improve the understanding and management of social content. Additionally, it can further facilitate the applications such as community discovery, temporal prediction and online marketing. However, this kind of extraction becomes challenging due to the…
Benchmarking the performance of community detection methods on empirical social network data has been identified as critical for improving these methods. In particular, while most current research focuses on detecting communities in data that has been digitally extracted from large social media and telecommunications services, most evaluation of this research is based on small, hand-curated datasets. We argue that these two types of networks differ so significantly that by evaluating algorithms solely on the former, we know little about how well they perform on the latter. To address this prob…
Social media can be a double-edged sword for society, either as a convenient channel exchanging ideas or as an unexpected conduit circulating fake news through a large population. While existing studies of fake news focus on theoretical modeling of propagation or identification methods based on machine learning, it is important to understand the realistic mechanisms between theoretical models and black-box methods. Here we track large databases of fake news and real news in both, Weibo in China and Twitter in Japan from different culture, which include their complete traces of re-postings. We …
Weak ties play a significant role in the structures and the dynamics of community networks. Based on the susceptible-infected model in contact process, we study numerically how weak ties influence the predictability of epidemic dynamics. We first investigate the effects of different kinds of weak ties on the variabilities of both the arrival time and the prevalence of disease, and find that the bridgeness with small degree can enhance the predictability of epidemic spreading. Once weak ties are settled, compared with the variability of arrival time, the variability of prevalence displays a dia…
Computer viruses are evolving by developing spreading mechanisms based on the use of multiple vectors of propagation. The use of the social network as an extra vector of attack to penetrate the security measures in IP networks is improving the effectiveness of malware, and have therefore been used by the most aggressive viruses, like Conficker and Stuxnet. In this work we use interdependent networks to model the propagation of these kind of viruses. In particular, we study the propagation of a SIS model on interdependent networks where the state of each node is layer-independent and the dynami…
Diffusion of innovation can be interpreted as a social spreading phenomena governed by the impact of media and social interactions. Although these mechanisms have been identified by quantitative theories, their role and relative importance are not entirely understood, since empirical verification has so far been hindered by the lack of appropriate data. Here we analyse a dataset recording the spreading dynamics of the world's largest Voice over Internet Protocol service to empirically support the assumptions behind models of social contagion. We show that the rate of spontaneous service adopti…
A model for the spreading of online information or "memes" on multiplex networks is introduced and analyzed using branching-process methods. The model generalizes that of [Gleeson et al., Phys.Rev. X., 2016] in two ways. First, even for a monoplex (single-layer) network, the model is defined for any specific network defined by its adjacency matrix, instead of being restricted to an ensemble of random networks. Second, a multiplex version of the model is introduced to capture the behaviour of users who post information from one social media platform to another. In both cases the branching proce…
The spread of disease on complex networks has attracted widely attention in the physics community. Recent works have demonstrated that heterogeneous degree and weight distributions have a significant influence on the epidemic dynamics. In this study, a novel edge-weight based compartmental approach is developed to estimate the epidemic threshold and epidemic size (final infected density) on networks with general degree and weight distributions, and a remarkable agreement with numerics is obtained. Even in complex network with the strong heterogeneous degree and weight distributions, this appro…
Passenger contact in public transit (PT) networks can be a key mediate in the spreading of infectious diseases. This paper proposes a time-varying weighted PT encounter network to model the spreading of infectious diseases through the PT systems. Social activity contacts at both local and global levels are also considered. We select the epidemiological characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a case study along with smart card data from Singapore to illustrate the model at the metropolitan level. A scalable and lightweight theoretical framework is derived to capture the time-v…
Large-scale rumor spreading could pose severe social and economic damages. The emergence of online social networks along with the new media can even make rumor spreading more severe. Effective control of rumor spreading is of theoretical and practical significance. This paper takes the first step to understand how the blockchain technology can help limit the spread of rumors. Specifically, we develop a new paradigm for social networks embedded with the blockchain technology, which employs decentralized contracts to motivate trust networks as well as secure information exchange contract. We des…
Models of disease spreading are critical for predicting infection growth in a population and evaluating public health policies. However, standard models typically represent the dynamics of disease transmission between individuals using macroscopic parameters that do not accurately represent person-to-person variability. To address this issue, we present a dynamic network model that provides a straightforward way to incorporate both disease transmission dynamics at the individual scale as well as the full spatiotemporal history of infection at the population scale. We find that disease spreads …
We study a dynamical system defined by a repeated game on a 1D lattice, in which the players keep track of their gross payoffs over time in a bank. Strategy updates are governed by a Boltzmann distribution which depends on the neighborhood bank values associated with each strategy, relative to a temperature scale which defines the random fluctuations. Players with higher bank values are thus less likely to change strategy than players with lower bank value. For a parameterized rock-paper-scissors game, we derive a condition under which communities of a given strategy form with either fixed or …
Diffusion of information and viral content, social contagion and influence are still topics of broad evaluation. We have studied the information epidemic in a social networking platform in order compare different campaign setups. The goal of this work is to present the new knowledge obtained from studying two artificial (experimental) and one natural (where people act emotionally) viral spread that took place in a closed virtual world. We propose an approach to modeling the behavior of online community exposed on external impulses as an epidemic process. The presented results base on online mu…
A classical model for social-influence-driven opinion change is the threshold model. Here we study cascades of opinion change driven by threshold model dynamics in the case where multiple {\it initiators} trigger the cascade, and where all nodes possess the same adoption threshold $ϕ$. Specifically, using empirical and stylized models of social networks, we study cascade size as a function of the initiator fraction $p$. We find that even for arbitrarily high value of $ϕ$, there exists a critical initiator fraction $p_c(ϕ)$ beyond which the cascade becomes global. Network structure, in particul…
In this study, an efficient method to immunize modular networks (i.e., networks with community structure) is proposed. The immunization of networks aims at fragmenting networks into small parts with a small number of removed nodes. Its applications include prevention of epidemic spreading, intentional attacks on networks, and conservation of ecosystems. Although preferential immunization of hubs is efficient, good immunization strategies for modular networks have not been established. On the basis of an immunization strategy based on the eigenvector centrality, we develop an analytical framewo…
Online social media have greatly affected the way in which we communicate with each other. However, little is known about what are the fundamental mechanisms driving dynamical information flow in online social systems. Here, we introduce a generative model for online sharing behavior that is analytically tractable and which can reproduce several characteristics of empirical micro-blogging data on hashtag usage, such as (time-dependent) heavy-tailed distributions of meme popularity. The presented framework constitutes a null model for social spreading phenomena which, in contrast to purely empi…
We investigate the impact of community structure on information diffusion with the linear threshold model. Our results demonstrate that modular structure may have counter-intuitive effects on information diffusion when social reinforcement is present. We show that strong communities can facilitate global diffusion by enhancing local, intra-community spreading. Using both analytic approaches and numerical simulations, we demonstrate the existence of an optimal network modularity, where global diffusion require the minimal number of early adopters.
In this paper, we study the interplay between the epidemic spreading and the diffusion of awareness in multiplex networks. In the model, an infectious disease can spread in one network representing the paths of epidemic spreading (contact network), leading to the diffusion of awareness in the other network (information network), and then the diffusion of awareness will cause individuals to take social distances, which in turn affects the epidemic spreading. As for the diffusion of awareness, we assume that, on the one hand, individuals can be informed by other aware neighbors in information ne…
A fundamental problem in network science is to predict how certain individuals are able to initiate new networks to spring up "new ideas". Frequently, these changes in trends are triggered by a few innovators who rapidly impose their ideas through "viral" influence spreading producing cascades of followers fragmenting an old network to create a new one. Typical examples include the raise of scientific ideas or abrupt changes in social media, like the raise of Facebook.com to the detriment of Myspace.com. How this process arises in practice has not been conclusively demonstrated. Here, we show …
Power-law behaviors are common in many disciplines, especially in network science. Real-world networks, like disease spreading among people, are more likely to be interconnected communities, and show richer power-law behaviors than isolated networks. In this paper, we look at the system of two communities which are connected by bridge links between a fraction $r$ of bridge nodes, and study the effect of bridge nodes to the final state of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, by mapping it to link percolation. By keeping a fixed average connectivity, but allowing different transmissibilitie…
Understanding community structure of social media is critical due to its broad applications such as friend recommendations, user modeling and content personalizations. Existing research uses structural metrics such as modularity and conductance and functional metrics such as ground truth to measure the qualify of the communities discovered by various community detection algorithms, while overlooking a natural and important dimension, community size. Recently, anthropologist Dunbar suggests that the size of stable community in social media should be limited to 150, referred to as Dunbar's numbe…
In this paper, we study two tightly coupled issues: space-crossing community detection and its influence on data forwarding in Mobile Social Networks (MSNs) by taking the hybrid underlying networks with infrastructure support into consideration. The hybrid underlying network is composed of large numbers of mobile users and a small portion of Access Points (APs). Because APs can facilitate the communication among long-distance nodes, the concept of physical proximity community can be extended to be one across the geographical space. In this work, we first investigate a space-crossing community …
Temporal Structure Mediates the Robustness and Collapse of Plant-Pollinator Networks
Helmholtz Institute for Functional Marine Biodiversity at the University of Oldenburg（奥尔登堡大学赫尔霍兹功能海洋生物多样性研究所）；Alfred Wegner institute（阿尔弗雷德·韦格纳研究所）；Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment（海洋环境化学与生物研究所）
