Because the stationary bootstrap resamples data blocks of random length, this method has been thought to have the largest asymptotic variance among block bootstraps Lahiri [Ann. Statist. 27 (1999) 386--404]. It is shown here that the variance of the stationary bootstrap surprisingly matches that of a block bootstrap based on nonrandom, nonoverlapping blocks. This argument translates the variance expansion into the frequency domain and provides a unified way of determining variances for other block bootstraps. Some previous results on the stationary bootstrap, related to asymptotic relative efficiency and optimal block size, are also updated.
Consistency of the jackknife-after-bootstrap variance estimator for the bootstrap quantiles of a studentized statistic
埃夫隆[J.罗伊。中央集权主义者Soc.Ser.B54（1992）83- 111]提出了一种计算效率高的方法，称为自举后折刀法，用于估计独立数据的自举估计量的方差。对于相依数据，Lahiri最近提出了一种自举后折刀法[Econometric Theory 18（2002）79- 98]。本文证明了对于相依和独立数据，Bootstrap分位数方差的Jackknife-after-Bootstrap估计是相合的。模拟研究的结果也被提出。
A model-free bootstrap procedure for a general class of stationary time series is introduced. The theoretical framework is established, showing asymptotic validity of bootstrap confidence intervals for many statistics of interest. In addition, asymptotic validity of one-step ahead bootstrap prediction intervals is also demonstrated. Finite-sample experiments are conducted to empirically confirm the performance of the new method, and to compare with popular methods such as the block bootstrap and the autoregressive (AR)-sieve bootstrap.
We propose a nonparametric bootstrap procedure for two-phase stratified sampling without replacement. In this design, a weighted likelihood estimator is known to have smaller asymptotic variance than under the convenient assumption of independence often made in practice. Variance estimation, however, has not been well studied for semiparametric models where variance may not have a closed form. Motivated by semiparametric inference, we establish conditional weak convergence of bootstrap inverse probability weighted empirical processes with several variants of calibration. Two main obstacles to …
The limiting distribution for M-estimates in a non-stationary autoregressive model with heavy-tailed error is computationally intractable. To make inferences based on the M-estimates, the bootstrap procedure can be used to approximate the sampling distribution. In this paper, we show that the bootstrap scheme with $m=o(n)$ resampling sample size when $m/n \to 0$ is approximately valid in a multiple unit roots time series with innovations in the domain of attraction of a stable law with index $0<α\leq2$.
We consider the double functional nonparametric regression model $Y=r(X)+ε$, where the response variable $Y$ is Hilbert space-valued and the covariate $X$ takes values in a pseudometric space. The data satisfy an ergodicity criterion which dates back to Laib and Louani (2010) and are arranged in a triangular array. So our model also applies to samples obtained from spatial processes, e.g., stationary random fields indexed by the regular lattice $\mathbb{Z}^N$ for some $N\in\mathbb{N}_+$. We consider a kernel estimator of the Nadaraya--Watson type for the regression operator $r$ and study its l…
In unit root testing, a piecewise locally stationary process is adopted to accommodate nonstationary errors that can have both smooth and abrupt changes in second- or higher-order properties. Under this framework, the limiting null distributions of the conventional unit root test statistics are derived and shown to contain a number of unknown parameters. To circumvent the difficulty of direct consistent estimation, we propose to use the dependent wild bootstrap to approximate the non-pivotal limiting null distributions and provide a rigorous theoretical justification for bootstrap consistency.…
For many relevant statistics of multivariate time series, no valid frequency domain bootstrap procedures exist. This is mainly due to the fact that the distribution of such statistics depends on the fourth-order moment structure of the underlying process in nearly every scenario, except for some special cases like Gaussian time series. In contrast to the univariate case, even additional structural assumptions such as linearity of the multivariate process or a standardization of the statistic of interest do not solve the problem. This paper focuses on integrated periodogram statistics as well a…
Wasserstein barycenters and variance-like criteria based on the Wasserstein distance are used in many problems to analyze the homogeneity of collections of distributions and structural relationships between the observations. We propose the estimation of the quantiles of the empirical process of Wasserstein's variation using a bootstrap procedure. We then use these results for statistical inference on a distribution registration model for general deformation functions. The tests are based on the variance of the distributions with respect to their Wasserstein's barycenters for which we prove cen…
Although the methods of bagging and random forests are some of the most widely used prediction methods, relatively little is known about their algorithmic convergence. In particular, there are not many theoretical guarantees for deciding when an ensemble is "large enough" --- so that its accuracy is close to that of an ideal infinite ensemble. Due to the fact that bagging and random forests are randomized algorithms, the choice of ensemble size is closely related to the notion of "algorithmic variance" (i.e. the variance of prediction error due only to the training algorithm). In the present w…
In recent years, bootstrap methods have drawn attention for their ability to approximate the laws of "max statistics" in high-dimensional problems. A leading example of such a statistic is the coordinate-wise maximum of a sample average of $n$ random vectors in $\mathbb{R}^p$. Existing results for this statistic show that the bootstrap can work when $n\ll p$, and rates of approximation (in Kolmogorov distance) have been obtained with only logarithmic dependence in $p$. Nevertheless, one of the challenging aspects of this setting is that established rates tend to scale like $n^{-1/6}$ as a func…
In the problem of model selection for a given family of linear estimators, ordered by their variance, we offer a new "smallest accepted" approach motivated by Lepski's method and multiple testing theory. The procedure selects the smallest model which satisfies an acceptance rule based on comparison with all larger models. The method is completely data-driven and does not use any prior information about the variance structure of the noise: its parameters are adjusted to the underlying possibly heterogeneous noise by the so-called "propagation condition" using a wild bootstrap method. The validi…
We explore the limits of the autoregressive (AR) sieve bootstrap, and show that its applicability extends well beyond the realm of linear time series as has been previously thought. In particular, for appropriate statistics, the AR-sieve bootstrap is valid for stationary processes possessing a general Wold-type autoregressive representation with respect to a white noise; in essence, this includes all stationary, purely nondeterministic processes, whose spectral density is everywhere positive. Our main theorem provides a simple and effective tool in assessing whether the AR-sieve bootstrap is a…
In global sensitivity analysis, the well known Sobol' sensitivity indices aim to quantify how the variance in the output of a mathematical model can be apportioned to the different variances of its input random variables. These indices are based on the functional variance decomposition and their interpretation become difficult in the presence of statistical dependence between the inputs. However, as there is dependence in many application studies, that enhances the development of interpretable sensitivity indices. Recently, the Shapley values developed in the field of cooperative games theory …
We investigate the accuracy of two general non-parametric methods for estimating optimal block lengths for block bootstraps with time series - the first proposed in the seminal paper of Hall, Horowitz and Jing (Biometrika 82 (1995) 561-574) and the second from Lahiri et al. (Stat. Methodol. 4 (2007) 292-321). The relative performances of these general methods have been unknown and, to provide a comparison, we focus on rates of convergence for these block length selectors for the moving block bootstrap (MBB) with variance estimation problems under the smooth function model. It is shown that, wi…
Strict stationarity is a common assumption used in the time series literature in order to derive asymptotic distributional results for second-order statistics, like sample autocovariances and sample autocorrelations. Focusing on weak stationarity, this paper derives the asymptotic distribution of the maximum of sample autocovariances and sample autocorrelations under weak conditions by using Gaussian approximation techniques. The asymptotic theory for parameter estimation obtained by fitting a (linear) autoregressive model to a general weakly stationary time series is revisited and a Gaussian …
The Allan Variance (AV) is a widely used quantity in areas focusing on error measurement as well as in the general analysis of variance for autocorrelated processes in domains such as engineering and, more specifically, metrology. The form of this quantity is widely used to detect noise patterns and indications of stability within signals. However, the properties of this quantity are not known for commonly occurring processes whose covariance structure is non-stationary and, in these cases, an erroneous interpretation of the AV could lead to misleading conclusions. This paper generalizes the t…
Functional times series have become an integral part of both functional data and time series analysis. This paper deals with the functional autoregressive model of order 1 and the autoregression bootstrap for smooth functions. The regression operator is estimated in the framework developed by Ferraty and Vieu [2004] and Ferraty et al. [2007] which is here extended to the double functional case under an assumption of stationary ergodic data which dates back to Laib and Louani [2010]. The main result of this article is the characterization of the asymptotic consistency of the bootstrapped regres…
In this paper, we consider possibly misspecified stochastic differential equation models driven by Lévy processes. Regardless of whether the driving noise is Gaussian or not, Gaussian quasi-likelihood estimator can estimate unknown parameters in the drift and scale coefficients. However, in the misspecified case, the asymptotic distribution of the estimator varies by the correction of the misspecification bias, and consistent estimators for the asymptotic variance proposed in the correctly specified case may lose theoretical validity. As one of its solutions, we propose a bootstrap method for …
Though introduced nearly 50 years ago, the infinitesimal jackknife (IJ) remains a popular modern tool for quantifying predictive uncertainty in complex estimation settings. In particular, when supervised learning ensembles are constructed via bootstrap samples, recent work demonstrated that the IJ estimate of variance is particularly convenient and useful. However, despite the algebraic simplicity of its final form, its derivation is rather complex. As a result, studies clarifying the intuition behind the estimator or rigorously investigating its properties have been severely lacking. This wor…
Detecting abrupt changes in the mean of a time series, so-called changepoints, is important for many applications. However, many procedures rely on the estimation of nuisance parameters (like long-run variance). Under the alternative (a change in mean), estimators might be biased and data-adaptive rules for the choice of tuning parameters might not work as expected. If the data is not stationary, but heteroscedastic, this becomes more challenging. The aim of this paper is to present and investigate two changepoint tests, which involve neither nuisance nor tuning parameters. This is achieved by…
We present a novel approach to test for heteroscedasticity of a non-stationary time series that is based on Gini's mean difference of logarithmic local sample variances. In order to analyse the large sample behaviour of our test statistic, we establish new limit theorems for U-statistics of dependent triangular arrays. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis of a constant variance and show that the test is consistent against a large class of alternatives, including multiple structural breaks in the variance. Our test is applicable even in the case …
The paper presents a systematic theory for asymptotic inference of autocovariances of stationary processes. We consider nonparametric tests for serial correlations based on the maximum (or ${\cal L}^\infty$) and the quadratic (or ${\cal L}^2$) deviations. For these two cases, with proper centering and rescaling, the asymptotic distributions of the deviations are Gumbel and Gaussian, respectively. To establish such an asymptotic theory, as byproducts, we develop a normal comparison principle and propose a sufficient condition for summability of joint cumulants of stationary processes. We adopt …
A time-domain test for the assumption of second order stationarity of a functional time series is proposed. The test is based on combining individual cumulative sum tests which are designed to be sensitive to changes in the mean, variance and autocovariance operators, respectively. The combination of their dependent $p$-values relies on a joint dependent block multiplier bootstrap of the individual test statistics. Conditions under which the proposed combined testing procedure is asymptotically valid under stationarity are provided. A procedure is proposed to automatically choose the block len…
Davis and Mikosch [7] introduced the extremogram as a flexible quantitative tool for measuring various types of extremal dependence in a stationary time series. There we showed some standard statistical properties of the sample extremogram. A major difficulty was the construction of credible confidence bands for the extremogram. In this paper, we employ the stationary bootstrap to overcome this problem. Moreover, we introduce the cross extremogram as a measure of extremal serial dependence between two or more time series. We also study the extremogram for return times between extremal events. …
The asymptotic normality of U-statistics has so far been proved for iid data and under various mixing conditions such as absolute regularity, but not for strong mixing. We use a coupling technique introduced in 1983 by Bradley to prove a new generalized covariance inequality similar to Yoshihara's. It follows from the Hoeffding-decomposition and this inequality that U-statistics of strongly mixing observations converge to a normal limit if the kernel of the U-statistic fulfills some moment and continuity conditions. The validity of the bootstrap for U-statistics has until now only been establi…
In this paper, an approximate version of the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model, driven by a Brownian motion and a Lévy subordinator, is formulated. The first-exit time of the log-return process for this model is analyzed. It is shown that with certain probability, the first-exit time process of the log-return is decomposable into the sum of the first exit time of the Brownian motion with drift, and the first exit time of a Lévy subordinator with drift. Subsequently, the probability density functions of the first exit time of some specific Lévy subordinators, connected to stationary, self-de…
Data-Driven Uniform Inference for General Continuous Treatment Models via Minimum-Variance Weighting
School of Management and Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳）经管学院）；School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne（墨尔本大学数学与统计学院）；Center for Applied Statistics, Institute of Statistics & Big Data, Renmin University of China（中国人民大学统计学院大数据研究中心）
