This paper is concerned with the problem of Model Predictive Control and Rolling Horizon Control of discrete-time systems subject to possibly unbounded random noise inputs, while satisfying hard bounds on the control inputs. We use a nonlinear feedback policy with respect to noise measurements and show that the resulting mathematical program has a tractable convex solution in both cases. Moreover, under the assumption that the zero-input and zero-noise system is asymptotically stable, we show that the variance of the state, under the resulting Model Predictive Control and Rolling Horizon Control policies, is bounded. Finally, we provide some numerical examples on how certain matrices in the underlying mathematical program can be calculated off-line.
We present the observation that the process of stochastic model predictive control can be formulated in the framework of iterated function systems. The latter has a rich ergodic theory that can be applied to study the system's long-run behavior. We show how such a framework can be realized for specific problems and illustrate the required conditions for the application of relevant theoretical guarantees.
The stability of stochastic Model Predictive Control (MPC) subject to additive disturbances is often demonstrated in the literature by constructing Lyapunov-like inequalities that ensure closed-loop performance bounds and boundedness of the state, but tight ultimate bounds for the state and non-conservative performance bounds are typically not determined. In this work we use an input-to-state stability property to find conditions that imply convergence with probability 1 of a disturbed nonlinear system to a minimal robust positively invariant set. We discuss implications for the convergence of…
Despite the proven advantages of scenario-based stochastic model predictive control for the operational control of water networks, its applicability is limited by its considerable computational footprint. In this paper we fully exploit the structure of these problems and solve them using a proximal gradient algorithm parallelizing the involved operations. The proposed methodology is applied and validated on a case study: the water network of the city of Barcelona.
We present a stochastic predictive controller for discrete time linear time invariant systems under incomplete state information. Our approach is based on a suitable choice of control policies, stability constraints, and employment of a Kalman filter to estimate the states of the system from incomplete and corrupt observations. We demonstrate that this approach yields a computationally tractable problem that should be solved online periodically, and that the resulting closed loop system is mean-square bounded for any positive bound on the control actions. Our results allow one to tackle the la…
We investigate constrained optimal control problems for linear stochastic dynamical systems evolving in discrete time. We consider minimization of an expected value cost over a finite horizon. Hard constraints are introduced first, and then reformulated in terms of probabilistic constraints. It is shown that, for a suitable parametrization of the control policy, a wide class of the resulting optimization problems are convex, or admit reasonable convex approximations.
The optimization of process economics within the model predictive control (MPC) formulation has given rise to a new control paradigm known as economic MPC (EMPC). Several authors have discussed the closed-loop properties of EMPC-controlled deterministic systems, however, little have uncertain systems been studied. In this paper we propose EMPC formulations for nonlinear Markovian switching systems which guarantee recursive feasibility, asymptotic performance bounds and constrained mean square (MS) stability.
We propose a formulation for approximate constrained nonlinear output-feedback stochastic model predictive control. Starting from the ideal but intractable stochastic optimal control problem (OCP), which involves the optimization over output-dependent policies, we use linearization with respect to the uncertainty to derive a tractable approximation which includes knowledge of the output model. This allows us to compute the expected value for the outer functions of the OCP exactly. Crucially, the dual control effect is preserved by this approximation. In consequence, the resulting controller is…
Output-Feedback Stochastic Model Predictive Control based on Stochastic Optimal Control for nonlinear systems is computationally intractable because of the need to solve a Finite Horizon Stochastic Optimal Control Problem. However, solving this problem leads to an optimal probing nature of the resulting control law, called dual control, which trades off benefits of exploration and exploitation. In practice, intractability of Stochastic Model Predictive Control is typically overcome by replacement of the underlying Stochastic Optimal Control problem by more amenable approximate surrogate proble…
A new formulation of Stochastic Model Predictive Output Feedback Control is presented and analyzed as a translation of Stochastic Optimal Output Feedback Control into a receding horizon setting. This requires lifting the design into a framework involving propagation of the conditional state density, the information state, via the Bayesian Filter and solution of the Stochastic Dynamic Programming Equation for an optimal feedback policy, both stages of which are computationally challenging in the general, nonlinear setup. The upside is that the clearance of three bottleneck aspects of Model Pred…
In this paper, we propose a stochastic method for solving equality constrained optimization problems that utilizes predictive variance reduction. Specifically, we develop a method based on the sequential quadratic programming paradigm that employs variance reduction in the gradient approximations. Under reasonable assumptions, we prove that a measure of first-order stationarity evaluated at the iterates generated by our proposed algorithm converges to zero in expectation from arbitrary starting points, for both constant and adaptive step size strategies. Finally, we demonstrate the practical p…
This article presents tractable and recursively feasible optimization-based controllers for stochastic linear systems with bounded controls. The stochastic noise in the plant is assumed to be additive, zero mean and fourth moment bounded, and the control values transmitted over an erasure channel. Three different transmission protocols are proposed having different requirements on the storage and computational facilities available at the actuator. We optimize a suitable stochastic cost function accounting for the effects of both the stochastic noise and the packet dropouts over affine saturate…
We combine conditional state density construction with an extension of the Scenario Approach for stochastic Model Predictive Control to nonlinear systems to yield a novel particle-based formulation of stochastic nonlinear output-feedback Model Predictive Control. Conditional densities given noisy measurement data are propagated via the Particle Filter as an approximate implementation of the Bayesian Filter. This enables a particle-based representation of the conditional state density, or information state, which naturally merges with scenario generation from the current system state. This appr…
This work develops a stochastic model predictive controller~(SMPC) for uncertain linear systems with additive Gaussian noise subject to state and control constraints. The proposed approach is based on the recently developed finite-horizon optimal covariance steering control theory, which steers the mean and the covariance of the system state to prescribed target values at a given terminal time. We call our approach covariance steering-based SMPC, or CS-SMPC. We show that the proposed approach has several advantages over traditional SMPC approaches in the literature. Specifically, it is shown t…
We design receding horizon control strategies for stochastic discrete-time linear systems with additive (possibly) unbounded disturbances, while obeying hard bounds on the control inputs. We pose the problem of selecting an appropriate optimal controller on vector spaces of functions and show that the resulting optimization problem has a tractable convex solution. Under the assumption that the zero-input and zero-noise system is asymptotically stable, we show that the variance of the state is bounded when enforcing hard bounds on the control inputs, for any receding horizon implementation. Thr…
Stochastic Spatio-Temporal processes are prevalent across domains ranging from modeling of plasma to the turbulence in fluids to the wave function of quantum systems. This letter studies a measure-theoretic description of such systems by describing them as evolutionary processes on Hilbert spaces, and in doing so, derives a framework for spatio-temporal manipulation from fundamental thermodynamic principles. This approach yields a variational optimization framework for controlling stochastic fields. The resulting scheme is applicable to a wide class of spatio-temporal processes and can be used…
We present a stochastic model predictive control (MPC) framework for central heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) plants. The framework uses real data to forecast and quantify uncertainty of disturbances affecting the system over multiple timescales (electrical loads, heating/cooling loads, and energy prices). We conduct detailed closed-loop simulations and systematic benchmarks for the central HVAC plant of a typical university campus. Results demonstrate that deterministic MPC fails to properly capture disturbances and that this translates into economic penalties associated with…
This paper is concerned with solving chance-constrained finite-horizon optimal control problems, with a particular focus on the recursive feasibility issue of stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) in terms of mission-wide probability of safety (MWPS). MWPS assesses the probability that the entire state trajectory lies within the constraint set, and the objective of the SMPC controller is to ensure that it is no less than a threshold value. This differs from classic SMPC where the probability that the state lies in the constraint set is enforced independently at each time instant. Unlike r…
We propose a provably stabilizing and tractable approach for control of constrained linear systems under intermittent observations and unreliable transmissions of control commands. A smart sensor equipped with a Kalman filter is employed for the estimation of the states from incomplete and corrupt measurements, and an estimator at the controller side optimally feeds the intermittently received sensor data to the controller. The remote controller iteratively solves constrained stochastic optimal control problems and transmits the control commands according to a carefully designed transmission p…
We revisit closed-loop performance guarantees for Model Predictive Control in the deterministic and stochastic cases, which extend to novel performance results applicable to receding horizon control of Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes. While performance guarantees similar to those achievable in deterministic Model Predictive Control can be obtained even in the stochastic case, the presumed stochastic optimal control law is intractable to obtain in practice. However, this intractability relaxes for a particular instance of stochastic systems, namely Partially Observable Markov Dec…
In this study, a microgrid with storage (battery, hot water tank) and solar panel is considered. We benchmark two algorithms, MPC and SDDP, that yield online policies to manage the microgrid, and compare them with a rule based policy. Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a well-known algorithm which models the future uncertainties with a deterministic forecast. By contrast, Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) models the future uncertainties as stagewise independent random variables with known probability distributions. We present a scheme, based on out-of-sample validation, to fairly compa…
Nonlinear model predictive control has become a popular approach to deal with highly nonlinear and unsteady state systems, the performance of which can however deteriorate due to unaccounted uncertainties. Model predictive control is commonly used with states from a state estimator in place of the exact states without consideration of the error. In this paper an approach is proposed by incorporating the unscented Kalman filter into the NMPC problem, which propagates uncertainty introduced from both the state estimate and additive noise from disturbances forward in time. The feasibility is main…
In this paper we present an information theoretic approach to stochastic optimal control problems for systems with compound Poisson noise. We generalize previous work on information theoretic path integral control to discontinuous dynamics with compound Poisson noise and develop an iterative model predictive control (MPC) algorithm using importance sampling. The proposed algorithm is parallelizable and when implemented on a Graphical Processing Unit (GPU) can run in real time. We test the performance of the proposed algorithm in simulation for two control tasks using a cartpole system and a qu…
This paper presents a nonlinear model predictive control strategy for stochastic systems with general (state and input dependent) disturbances subject to chance constraints. Our approach uses an online computed stochastic tube to ensure stability, constraint satisfaction and recursive feasibility in the presence of stochastic uncertainties. The shape of the tube and the constraint backoff is based on an offline computed incremental Lyapunov function.
This article presents a novel class of control policies for networked control of Lyapunov-stable linear systems with bounded inputs. The control channel is assumed to have i.i.d. Bernoulli packet dropouts and the system is assumed to be affected by additive stochastic noise. Our proposed class of policies is affine in the past dropouts and saturated values of the past disturbances. We further consider a regularization term in a quadratic performance index to promote sparsity in control. We demonstrate how to augment the underlying optimization problem with a constant negative drift constraint …
We consider the problem of controlling marginally stable linear systems using bounded control inputs for networked control settings in which the communication channel between the remote controller and the system is unreliable. We assume that the states are perfectly observed, but the control inputs are transmitted over a noisy communication channel. Under mild hypotheses on the noise introduced by the control communication channel and large enough control authority, we construct a control policy that renders the state of the closed-loop system mean-square bounded.
We present a general framework for optimizing the Conditional Value-at-Risk for dynamical systems using stochastic search. The framework is capable of handling the uncertainty from the initial condition, stochastic dynamics, and uncertain parameters in the model. The algorithm is compared against a risk-sensitive distributional reinforcement learning framework and demonstrates outperformance on a pendulum and cartpole with stochastic dynamics. We also showcase the applicability of the framework to robotics as an adaptive risk-sensitive controller by optimizing with respect to the fully nonline…
Model predictive control is an advanced control approach for multivariable systems with constraints, which is reliant on an accurate dynamic model. Most real dynamic models are however affected by uncertainties, which can lead to closed-loop performance deterioration and constraint violations. In this paper we introduce a new algorithm to explicitly consider time-invariant stochastic uncertainties in optimal control problems. The difficulty of propagating stochastic variables through nonlinear functions is dealt with by combining Gaussian processes with polynomial chaos expansions. The main no…
In this paper, we propose a chance constrained stochastic model predictive control scheme for reference tracking of distributed linear time-invariant systems with additive stochastic uncertainty. The chance constraints are reformulated analytically based on mean-variance information, where we design suitable Probabilistic Reachable Sets for constraint tightening. Furthermore, the chance constraints are proven to be satisfied in closed-loop operation. The design of an invariant set for tracking complements the controller and ensures convergence to arbitrary admissible reference points, while a …
Stochastic gradient methods are dominant in nonconvex optimization especially for deep models but have low asymptotical convergence due to the fixed smoothness. To address this problem, we propose a simple yet effective method for improving stochastic gradient methods named predictive local smoothness (PLS). First, we create a convergence condition to build a learning rate which varies adaptively with local smoothness. Second, the local smoothness can be predicted by the latest gradients. Third, we use the adaptive learning rate to update the stochastic gradients for exploring linear convergen…
The paper investigates data-driven output-feedback predictive control of linear systems subject to stochastic disturbances. The scheme relies on the recursive solution of a suitable data-driven reformulation of a stochastic Optimal Control Problem (OCP), which allows for forward prediction and optimization of statistical distributions of inputs and outputs. Our approach avoids the use of parametric system models. Instead it is based on previously recorded data using a recently proposed stochastic variant of Willems' fundamental lemma. The stochastic variant of the lemma is applicable to a larg…
We propose a stochastic MPC scheme using an optimization over the initial state for the predicted trajectory. Considering linear discrete-time systems under unbounded additive stochastic disturbances subject to chance constraints, we use constraint tightening based on probabilistic reachable sets to design the MPC. The scheme avoids the infeasibility issues arising from unbounded disturbances by including the initial state as a decision variable. We show that the stabilizing control scheme can guarantee constraint satisfaction in closed loop, assuming unimodal disturbances. In addition to illu…
University of Waterloo（滑铁卢大学）；Huazhong University of Science and Technology（华中科技大学）
We prove that various stochastic gradient descent methods, including the stochastic gradient descent (SGD), stochastic heavy-ball (SHB), and stochastic Nesterov's accelerated gradient (SNAG) methods, almost surely avoid any strict saddle manifold. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time such results are obtained for SHB and SNAG methods. Moreover, our analysis expands upon previous studies on SGD by removing the need for bounded gradients of the objective function and uniformly bounded noise. Instead, we introduce a more practical local boundedness assumption for the noisy gradien…
We present a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) framework for linear systems subject to possibly unbounded disturbances. State of the art SMPC approaches with closed-loop chance constraint satisfaction recursively initialize the nominal state based on the previously predicted nominal state or possibly the measured state under some case distinction. We improve these initialization strategies by allowing for a continuous optimization over the nominal initial state in an interpolation of these two extremes. The resulting SMPC scheme can be implemented as one standard quadratic program and…
This paper proposes a control strategy for a Reverse Fuel Cell used to manage a Renewable Energy Community. A two-stage scenario-based Model Predictive Control algorithm is designed to define the best economic strategy to be followed during operation. Renewable energy generation and users' demand are forecasted by a suitably defined Discrete Markov Chain based method. The control algorithm is able to take into account the uncertainties of forecasts and the nonlinear behaviour of the Reversible Fuel Cell. The performance of proposed approach is tested on a Renewable Energy Community composed by…
