We introduce estimation and test procedures through divergence minimization for models satisfying linear constraints with unknown parameter. Several statistical examples and motivations are given. These procedures extend the empirical likelihood (EL) method and share common features with generalized empirical likelihood (GEL). We treat the problems of existence and characterization of the divergence projections of probability measures on sets of signed finite measures. Our approach allows for a study of the estimates under misspecification. The asymptotic behavior of the proposed estimates are studied using the dual representation of the divergences and the explicit forms of the divergence projections. We discuss the problem of the choice of the divergence under various respects. Also we handle efficiency and robustness properties of minimum divergence estimates. A simulation study shows that the Hellinger divergence enjoys good efficiency and robustness properties.
We consider the related problems of estimating the $l_2$-norm and the squared $l_2$-norm in sparse linear regression with unknown variance, as well as the problem of testing the hypothesis that the regression parameter is null under sparse alternatives with $l_2$ separation. We establish the minimax optimal rates of estimation (respectively, testing) in these three problems.
This paper is devoted to the estimation of the shift parameter in a semiparametric regression model when the distribution of the observation times is unknown. Hence, we propose to use a stochastic algorithm which takes into account the estimation of the distribution of the observation times. We establish the almost sure convergence of our estimator and the asymptotic normality. The main result of the paper is that, with little assumptions on the regularity of the regression function, the asymptotic variance obtained is the same as when the distribution is known. In that sense, we improve the r…
The Shapley effects are global sensitivity indices: they quantify the impact of each input variable on the output variable in a model. In this work, we suggest new estimators of these sensitivity indices. When the input distribution is known, we investigate the already existing estimator and suggest a new one with a lower variance. Then, when the distribution of the inputs is unknown, we extend these estimators. Finally, we provide asymptotic properties of the estimators studied in this article.
We consider the estimation of quadratic functionals in a Gaussian sequence model where the eigenvalues are supposed to be unknown and accessible through noisy observations only. Imposing smoothness assumptions both on the signal and the sequence of eigenvalues, we develop a minimax theory for this problem. We propose a truncated series estimator and show that it attains the optimal rate of convergence if the truncation parameter is chosen appropriately. Consequences for testing problems in inverse problems are equally discussed: in particular, the minimax rates of testing for signal detection …
We propose a new pivotal method for estimating high-dimensional matrices. Assume that we observe a small set of entries or linear combinations of entries of an unknown matrix $A\_0$ corrupted by noise. We propose a new method for estimating $A\_0$ which does not rely on the knowledge or an estimation of the standard deviation of the noise $σ$. Our estimator achieves, up to a logarithmic factor, optimal rates of convergence under the Frobenius risk and, thus, has the same prediction performance as previously proposed estimators which rely on the knowledge of $σ$. Our method is based on the solu…
We provide a minimax optimal estimation procedure for F and W in matrix valued linear models Y = F W + Z where the parameter matrix W and the design matrix F are unknown but the latter takes values in a known finite set. The proposed finite alphabet linear model is justified in a variety of applications, ranging from signal processing to cancer genetics. We show that this allows to separate F and W uniquely under weak identifiability conditions, a task which is not doable, in general. To this end we quantify in the noiseless case, that is, Z = 0, the perturbation range of Y in order to obtain …
This paper investigates estimation of the mean vector under invariant quadratic loss for a spherically symmetric location family with a residual vector with density of the form $ f(x,u)=η^{(p+n)/2}f(η\{\|x-θ\|^2+\|u\|^2\}) $, where $η$ is unknown. We show that the natural estimator $x$ is admissible for $p=1,2$. Also, for $p\geq 3$, we find classes of generalized Bayes estimators that are admissible within the class of equivariant estimators of the form $\{1-ξ(x/\|u\|)\}x$. In the Gaussian case, a variant of the James--Stein estimator, $[1-\{(p-2)/(n+2)\}/\{\|x\|^2/\|u\|^2+(p-2)/(n+2)+1\}]x$, …
We consider the problem of estimation of a linear functional in the Gaussian sequence model where the unknown vector theta in R^d belongs to a class of s-sparse vectors with unknown s. We suggest an adaptive estimator achieving a non-asymptotic rate of convergence that differs from the minimax rate at most by a logarithmic factor. We also show that this optimal adaptive rate cannot be improved when s is unknown. Furthermore, we address the issue of simultaneous adaptation to s and to the variance sigma^2 of the noise. We suggest an estimator that achieves the optimal adaptive rate when both s …
Quantile estimation in deconvolution problems is studied comprehensively. In particular, the more realistic setup of unknown error distributions is covered. Our plug-in method is based on a deconvolution density estimator and is minimax optimal under minimal and natural conditions. This closes an important gap in the literature. Optimal adaptive estimation is obtained by a data-driven bandwidth choice. As a side result, we obtain optimal rates for the plug-in estimation of distribution functions with unknown error distributions. The method is applied to a real data example.
In this article we study the problem of quantifying the uncertainty in an experiment with a technical system. We propose new density estimates which combine observed data of the technical system and simulated data from an (imperfect) simulation model based on estimated input distributions. We analyze the rate of convergence of these estimates. The finite sample size performance of the estimates is illustrated by applying them to simulated data. The practical usefulness of the newly proposed estimates is demonstrated by using them to predict the uncertainty of a lateral vibration attenuation sy…
In this paper, we develop methods of nonlinear filtering and prediction of an unobservable Markov chain with a finite set of states. This Markov chain controls coefficients of AR(p) model. Using observations generated by AR(p) model we have to estimate the state of Markov chain in the case of an unknown probability transition matrix. Comparison of proposed non-parametric algorithms with the optimal methods in the case of the known transition matrix is carried out by simulating.
We consider a problem of parameter estimation for the state space model described by linear stochastic differential equations. We assume that an unobservable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process drives another observable process by the linear stochastic differential equation, and these two processes depend on some unknown parameters. We construct the quasi-likelihood estimator (QMLE) of the unknown parameters and show asymptotic properties of the estimator.
Motivated by crowd-sourcing applications, we consider a model where we have partial observations from a bivariate isotonic n x d matrix with an unknown permutation $π$ * acting on its rows. Focusing on the twin problems of recovering the permutation $π$ * and estimating the unknown matrix, we introduce a polynomial-time procedure achieving the minimax risk for these two problems, this for all possible values of n, d, and all possible sampling efforts. Along the way, we establish that, in some regimes, recovering the unknown permutation $π$ * is considerably simpler than estimating the matrix.
We consider the nonparametric estimation of the intensity function of a Poisson point process in a circular model from indirect observations $N_1,\ldots,N_n$. These observations emerge from hidden point process realizations with the target intensity through contamination with additive error. In case that the error distribution can only be estimated from an additional sample $Y_1,\ldots,Y_m$ we derive minimax rates of convergence with respect to the sample sizes $n$ and $m$ under abstract smoothness conditions and propose an orthonormal series estimator which attains the optimal rate of converg…
We consider the problem of estimating the mean vector of a p-variate normal $(θ,Σ)$ distribution under invariant quadratic loss, $(δ-θ)'Σ^{-1}(δ-θ)$, when the covariance is unknown. We propose a new class of estimators that dominate the usual estimator $δ^0(X)=X$. The proposed estimators of $θ$ depend upon X and an independent Wishart matrix S with n degrees of freedom, however, S is singular almost surely when p>n. The proof of domination involves the development of some new unbiased estimators of risk for the p>n setting. We also find some relationships between the amount of domination and t…
We investigate density estimation from a $n$-sample in the Euclidean space $\mathbb R^D$, when the data is supported by an unknown submanifold $M$ of possibly unknown dimension $d < D$ under a reach condition. We study nonparametric kernel methods for pointwise loss, with data-driven bandwidths that incorporate some learning of the geometry via a local dimension estimator. When $f$ has Hölder smoothness $β$ and $M$ has regularity $α$, our estimator achieves the rate $n^{-α\wedge β/(2α\wedge β+d)}$ and does not depend on the ambient dimension $D$ and is asymptotically minimax for $α\geq β$. Fol…
We study the problem of estimating the mean of a multivariatedistribution based on independent samples. The main result is the proof of existence of an estimator with a non-asymptotic sub-Gaussian performance for all distributions satisfying some mild moment assumptions.
We consider the problem of parameter estimation for the partially observed linear stochastic differential equation. We assume that the unobserved Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process depends on some unknown parameter and estimate the unobserved process and the unknown parameter simultaneously. We construct the two-step MLE-process for the estimator of the parameter and describe its large sample asymptotic properties, including consistency and asymptotic normality. Using the Kalman-Bucy filtering equations we construct recurrent estimators of the state and the parameter.
Statistical inference from high-dimensional data with low-dimensional structures has recently attracted lots of attention. In machine learning, deep generative modeling approaches implicitly estimate distributions of complex objects by creating new samples from the underlying distribution, and have achieved great success in generating synthetic realistic-looking images and texts. A key step in these approaches is the extraction of latent features or representations (encoding) that can be used for accurately reconstructing the original data (decoding). In other words, low-dimensional manifold s…
In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the density function of a Chi-squared variable on the basis of observations of another Chi-squared variable and a normal variable under the Kullback-Leibler divergence. We assume that these variables have a common unknown scale parameter and that the mean of the normal variable is also unknown. We compare the risk functions of two Bayesian predictive densities: one with respect to a hierarchical shrinkage prior and the other based on a noninformative prior. The hierarchical Bayesian predictive density depends on the normal variable while the…
In this paper, we consider adaptive estimation of an unknown planar compact, convex set from noisy measurements of its support function on a uniform grid. Both the problem of estimating the support function at a point and that of estimating the convex set are studied. Data-driven adaptive estimators are proposed and their optimality properties are established. For pointwise estimation, it is shown that the estimator optimally adapts to every compact, convex set instead of a collection of large parameter spaces as in the conventional minimax theory of nonparametric estimation. For set estimatio…
The paper considers the problem of estimating the parameters in a continuous time regression model with a non-Gaussian noise of pulse type. The noise is specified by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by the mixture of a Brownian motion and a compound Poisson process. Improved estimates for the unknown regression parameters, based on a special modification of the James-Stein procedure with smaller quadratic risk than the usual least squares estimates, are proposed. The developed estimation scheme is applied for the improved parameter estimation in the discrete time regression with the autor…
We study the problem of estimating a functional or a parameter in the context where outcome is subject to nonignorable missingness. We completely avoid modeling the regression relation, while allowing the propensity to be modeled by a semiparametric logistic relation where the dependence on covariates is unspecified. We discover a surprising phenomenon in that the estimation of the parameter in the propensity model as well as the functional estimation can be carried out without assessing the missingness dependence on covariates. This allows us to propose a general class of estimators for both …
Many applications, including rank aggregation, crowd-labeling, and graphon estimation, can be modeled in terms of a bivariate isotonic matrix with unknown permutations acting on its rows and/or columns. We consider the problem of estimating an unknown matrix in this class, based on noisy observations of (possibly, a subset of) its entries. We design and analyze polynomial-time algorithms that improve upon the state of the art in two distinct metrics, showing, in particular, that minimax optimal, computationally efficient estimation is achievable in certain settings. Along the way, we prove mat…
This paper characterizes the minimax linear estimator of the value of an unknown function at a boundary point of its domain in a Gaussian white noise model under the restriction that the first-order derivative of the unknown function is Lipschitz continuous (the second-order Hölder class). The result is then applied to construct the minimax optimal estimator for the regression discontinuity design model, where the parameter of interest involves function values at boundary points.
The aim of this paper is to address two related estimation problems arising in the setup of hidden state linear time invariant (LTI) state space systems when the dimension of the hidden state is unknown. Namely, the estimation of any finite number of the system's Markov parameters and the estimation of a minimal realization for the system, both from the partial observation of a single trajectory. For both problems, we provide statistical guarantees in the form of various estimation error upper bounds, $\rank$ recovery conditions, and sample complexity estimates. Specifically, we first show tha…
We consider partially observed multiscale diffusion models that are specified up to an unknown vector parameter. We establish for a very general class of test functions that the filter of the original model converges to a filter of reduced dimension. Then, this result is used to justify statistical estimation for the unknown parameters of interest based on the model of reduced dimension but using the original available data. This allows to learn the unknown parameters of interest while working in lower dimensions, as opposed to working with the original high dimensional system. Simulation stud…
In the present paper, we consider the estimation of a periodic two-dimensional function $f(\cdot,\cdot)$ based on observations from its noisy convolution, and convolution kernel $g(\cdot,\cdot)$ unknown. We derive the minimax lower bounds for the mean squared error assuming that $f$ belongs to certain Besov space and the kernel function $g$ satisfies some smoothness properties. We construct an adaptive hard-thresholding wavelet estimator that is asymptotically near-optimal within a logarithmic factor in a wide range of Besov balls. The proposed estimation algorithm implements a truncation to e…
We consider the problem of estimating the covariance matrix of a random signal observed through unknown translations (modeled by cyclic shifts) and corrupted by noise. Solving this problem allows to discover low-rank structures masked by the existence of translations (which act as nuisance parameters), with direct application to Principal Components Analysis (PCA). We assume that the underlying signal is of length $L$ and follows a standard factor model with mean zero and $r$ normally-distributed factors. To recover the covariance matrix in this case, we propose to employ the second- and fourt…
Our objective is to estimate the unknown compositional input from its output response through an unknown system after estimating the inverse of the original system with a training set. The proposed methods using artificial neural networks (ANNs) can compete with the optimal bounds for linear systems, where convex optimization theory applies, and demonstrate promising results for nonlinear system inversions. We performed extensive experiments by designing numerous different types of nonlinear systems.
This paper aims to address two fundamental challenges arising in eigenvector estimation and inference for a low-rank matrix from noisy observations: (1) how to estimate an unknown eigenvector when the eigen-gap (i.e. the spacing between the associated eigenvalue and the rest of the spectrum) is particularly small; (2) how to perform estimation and inference on linear functionals of an eigenvector -- a sort of "fine-grained" statistical reasoning that goes far beyond the usual $\ell_2$ analysis. We investigate how to address these challenges in a setting where the unknown $n\times n$ matrix is …
We consider spline estimates which preserve prescribed piecewise convex properties of the unknown function. A robust version of the penalized likelihood is given and shown to correspond to a variable halfwidth kernel smoother where the halfwidth adaptively decreases in regions of rapid change of the unknown function. When the convexity change points are prescribed, we derive representation results and smoothness properties of the estimates. A dual formulation is given which reduces the estimate is reduced to a finite dimensional convex optimization in the dual space.
