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arXiv 0811.1855physics.ao-phphysics.soc-ph
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是否存在对未来人为二氧化碳排放的基本物质限制?

Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide?

Timothy J. Garrett

摘要:

全球气候模式(GCM)使用各种高度复杂的人为人为二氧化碳排放模型作为输入,提供未来气候变暖的预测,每个模型都基于四个排放“驱动因素”的演变:人口p、生活水平g、能源生产率(或效率)f和能源碳化c。然而,考虑的情景范围非常广泛,这是预测不确定性的主要来源。在这里,它是从理论上和观察上如何可以考虑从一个令人惊讶的简单的热力学角度来看,它是没有必要明确的模型的两个排放驱动程序:人口和生活水平的人类系统的演变。具体来说,人类系统通过一个自我维持的反馈回路增长,其中初级能源的消费率与全球经济生产的历史积累(或p乘以g)保持联系,通过一个与时间无关的因素,即9.7 +/- 0.3毫瓦/1990年通货膨胀调整后的美元。这一重要的制约因素,以及f和c在历史上变化相当缓慢的事实,表明在大气环流模型中实施的未来排放情景的视野大大缩小。

英文摘要:

Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide forecasts of future climate warming using a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO2 emissions models as input, each based on the evolution of four emissions "drivers": population p, standard of living g, energy productivity (or efficiency) f and energy carbonization c. The range of scenarios considered is extremely broad, however, and this is a primary source of forecast uncertainty. Here, it is shown both theoretically and observationally how the evolution of the human system can be considered from a surprisingly simple thermodynamic perspective in which it is unnecessary to explicitly model two of the emissions drivers: population and standard of living. Specifically, the human system grows through a self-perpetuating feedback loop in which the consumption rate of primary energy resources stays tied to the historical accumulation of global economic production - or p times g - through a time-independent factor of 9.7 +/- 0.3 milliwatts per inflation-adjusted 1990 US dollar. This important constraint, and the fact that f and c have historically varied rather slowly, points towards substantially narrowed visions of future emissions scenarios for implementation in GCMs.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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