Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide forecasts of future climate warming using a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO2 emissions models as input, each based on the evolution of four emissions "drivers": population p, standard of living g, energy productivity (or efficiency) f and energy carbonization c. The range of scenarios considered is extremely broad, however, and this is a primary source of forecast uncertainty. Here, it is shown both theoretically and observationally how the evolution of the human system can be considered from a surprisingly simple thermodynamic perspective in which it is unnecessary to explicitly model two of the emissions drivers: population and standard of living. Specifically, the human system grows through a self-perpetuating feedback loop in which the consumption rate of primary energy resources stays tied to the historical accumulation of global economic production - or p times g - through a time-independent factor of 9.7 +/- 0.3 milliwatts per inflation-adjusted 1990 US dollar. This important constraint, and the fact that f and c have historically varied rather slowly, points towards substantially narrowed visions of future emissions scenarios for implementation in GCMs.
The Equilibrium Climate Response to Sulfur Dioxide and Carbonaceous Aerosol Emissions from East and Southeast Asia
我们调查了东亚和东南亚碳质气溶胶和二氧化硫(硫酸盐气溶胶的前体)排放的平衡气候响应。使用共同体地球系统模式,与共同体大气模式版本5.3,我们发现,来自东亚和东南亚的人为气溶胶排放产生的全球平均净辐射效应为-0.49 $\pm$ 0.04 W m $^{-2}$。大约一半的冷却效应可以归因于人为的二氧化硫排放。气溶胶的排放导致了北半球大范围的降温。东亚和东南亚地区降水受到强烈抑制,表明人为气溶胶排放可能影响当地的水资源。然而,与以前的研究相比,我们没有发现澳大利亚和西非降水的远程影响的明确证据。我们建议进一步调查可能的远程影响。
Quantitative implications of the secondary role of carbon dioxide climate forcing in the past glacial-interglacial cycles for the likely future climatic impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcings
Evaluation of CMIP models with IOMB: Rates of contemporary ocean carbon uptake linked with vertical temperature gradients and transport to the ocean interior
Near Real-time CO$_2$ Emissions Based on Carbon Satellite and Artificial Intelligence
The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen(香港中文大学(深圳));The University of Sydney(悉尼大学);Shenzhen Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics for Society(深圳人工智能与机器人研究院);Shenzhen Finance Institute, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen(香港中文大学(深圳)深圳高等金融研究院)
The air pressure effect on the homogeneous nucleation of carbon dioxide by molecular simulation
采用分子模拟方法研究了二氧化碳、氮气、氧气和氩气四元混合物的汽液平衡和惰性载气对均相汽液成核的影响。正则系综分子动力学模拟使用的Yasuoka-Matsumoto方法适用于核在过饱和蒸汽中含有更多的二氧化碳比在饱和状态的露点。已建立的分子模型,是已知的,以准确地再现纯流体的汽液平衡,以及它们的二元和三元混合物。在此基础上,用大平衡法测定了该体系的四元汽液平衡性质。载气对成核速率影响的模拟结果与考虑“压力效应”的经典成核理论(CNT)[Phys. Rev. Lett. 101:125703(2008)]。据发现,作为载气的空气的存在下,成核率仅略有下降,特别是,到一个显着低于CNT预测的程度。二氧化碳的成核速率通常被CNT低估,导致纯二氧化碳在旋节线附近的一个和两个数量级之间的偏差,并且在空气作为载气的存在下高达三个数量级。此外,CNT预测的温度依赖性的成核速率在spinodal极限,这不能通过分子模拟证实。
Raman observations of quantum interference in the $ν_1 / 2ν_2$ Fermi dyad region of carbon dioxide
在正柱放电条件下,获得了CO $_2$的相干反斯托克斯拉曼光谱(CARS)。的拉曼跃迁的强度显着降低时,放电被打开,因为均衡的较低和较高的状态人口的电子碰撞激发,以类似于饱和的方式,$ν_1 / 2ν_2$费米二分体。观察到1285 cm $^{-1}$跃迁的强度比1388 cm $^{-1}$谱线降低20倍,这是由于量子干涉降低了1285 cm $^{-1}$跃迁的上态的振动弛豫速率。这种干扰通过测量从状态的衰变率来验证。实验排除斯塔克效应和偏振效应的描述。支持所观察到的电子快速振动激发,观察到在1425.61 cm $^{-1}$处的强热带跃迁$20^00 \leftarrow 02^20$。这些意见进行了比较,最近的测量CO $_2$在火焰中加热的拉曼光谱。