用IOMB评估CMIP模式：与vertical temperature gradients和向海洋内部输送有关的当代海洋碳吸收率
Evaluation of CMIP models with IOMB: Rates of contemporary ocean carbon uptake linked with vertical temperature gradients and transport to the ocean interior
摘要：
国际海洋模型基准测试（IOMB）软件包是一种新的社区资源，用于评估CMIP 5和CMIP 6地球系统模型（ESM）中的表层和上层海洋变量。我们的分析显示，与CMIP 5相比，CMIP 6的多模型平均值总体有所改善。我们检查的大多数变量包括表面营养物、温度和盐度。我们发现CMIP 5和CMIP 6海洋模型都低估了20世纪70年代后人类活动对二氧化碳的吸收。对于1994年至2007年期间，CMIP 6的多模式平均值得出的平均累积碳吸收量为27.2 +-2.2 Pg C，比两组观测值得出的32.0+-5.7 Pg C估计值低约15%。在北大西洋北部和南半球中纬度地区（30-60°S），人为碳清单变化存在负偏差。对于几个模型，提供模拟氯氟烃（CFC），我们证明了负人为DIC偏差的区域与CFC浓度负偏差的区域相吻合。这种关系表明，在某些模式中，人为碳储存的低估部分源于海洋表面和内部之间的弱传输。为了检验这一属性在CMIP 5和CMIP 6全套模型中的稳健性，我们研究了200至1000米之间的垂直温度梯度，作为表层和深层水之间分层和交换的指标。在全球范围内，在不同的模式和不同的MIP，我们发现垂直温度梯度的偏差和人为碳吸收的偏差之间的线性关系，与海洋碳汇的模型偏差与表面到内部的运输偏差的假设一致。
英文摘要：
The International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) software package is a new community resource used here to evaluate surface and upper ocean variables from CMIP5 and CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) Our analysis reveals general improvement in the multi-model mean of CMIP6 compared to CMIP5 for most of the variables we examined including surface nutrients, temperature, and salinity. We find that both CMIP5 and CMIP6 ocean models underestimate anthropogenic carbon dioxide uptake after the 1970s. For the period of 1994 to 2007, the multi-model mean from CMIP6 yields a mean cumulative carbon uptake of 27.2 +-2.2 Pg C, which is about 15% lower than the 32.0+-5.7 Pg C estimate derived from two sets of observations. Negative biases in the change in anthropogenic carbon inventory exist in the northern North Atlantic and at mid-latitudes in the southern hemisphere (30-60°S). For the few models that provided simulations of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), we demonstrate that regions with negative anthropogenic DIC biases coincide with regions that have a negative bias in CFC concentrations. This relationship suggests that underestimates of anthropogenic carbon storage in some models originates, in part, from weak transport between the surface and interior ocean. To examine the robustness of this attribution across the full suite of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, we examined the vertical temperature gradient between 200 and 1000m as a metric for stratification and exchange between the surface and deeper waters. On a global scale across different models and different MIPs we find a linear relationship between the bias of vertical temperature gradients and the bias in anthropogenic carbon uptake, consistent with the hypothesis that model biases in the ocean carbon sink are related to biases in surface-to-interior transport.
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