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arXiv 2402.05671physics.ao-phastro-ph.EPphysics.geo-ph
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CMIP6中陆地碳循环的表征

Representation of the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle in CMIP6

Bettina K. Gier, Manuel Schlund, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris D. Jones, Colin Jones, Sönke Zaehle, Veronika Eyring

AI总结:

该研究评估CMIP6中陆地碳循环表征的改进,发现氮循环限制显著改善光合作用模拟,但LAI和NBP仍存在偏差,建议未来采用排放驱动模拟。

摘要:

参与第六次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的地球系统模式在陆地碳循环表征方面的改进包括碳循环和氮循环的交互处理、改进的光合作用以及土壤水文学。为了评估这些模式发展对全球碳循环各方面的影响,地球系统模式评估工具被扩展,以将CMIP5和CMIP6的CO2浓度驱动和排放驱动的历史模拟与观测数据集进行比较。在CMIP5中,光合作用(GPP)的高估在CMIP6中对于参与模式且具有交互氮循环的模式基本得到解决,但对于没有氮循环的模式仍然存在。这指出了包含养分限制的重要性。模拟叶面积指数(LAI)仍然具有挑战性,在CMIP5和CMIP6中模式间差异较大。在地球系统模式中,全球平均陆地碳吸收(NBP)在CMIP5和CMIP6的多模式平均值中得到了很好的再现。然而,这是北半球NBP低估的结果,而南半球和热带地区的NBP高估补偿了这一点。总体而言,与CMIP5相比,CMIP6在陆地碳循环参数的模拟方面略有改善,但仍存在许多偏差,特别是LAI和NBP的模拟需要进一步改进。排放驱动模拟尽管增加了过程真实性,但其表现与浓度驱动模拟一样好。因此,我们建议在未来的CMIP阶段中,地球系统模式将排放驱动模拟作为标准,以便气候-碳循环反馈完全活跃。与未包含氮限制过程的模式相比,包含氮限制导致光合作用模拟的大幅改进,这表明有必要将氮循环视为所有未来碳循环模式的必要组成部分。

英文摘要:

Improvements in the representation of the land carbon cycle in Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) include interactive treatment of both the carbon and nitrogen cycles, improved photosynthesis, and soil hydrology. To assess the impact of these model developments on aspects of the global carbon cycle, the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool is expanded to compare CO2 concentration and emission-driven historical simulations from CMIP5 and CMIP6 to observational data sets. Overestimations of photosynthesis (GPP) in CMIP5 were largely resolved in CMIP6 for participating models with an interactive nitrogen cycle, but remaining for models without one. This points to the importance of including nutrient limitation. Simulating the leaf area index (LAI) remains challenging with a large model spread in both CMIP5 and CMIP6. In ESMs, global mean land carbon uptake (NBP) is well reproduced in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model means. However, this is the result of an underestimation of NBP in the northern hemisphere, which is compensated by an overestimation in the southern hemisphere and the tropics. Overall, a slight improvement in the simulation of land carbon cycle parameters is found in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5, but with many biases remaining, further improvements of models in particular for LAI and NBP is required. Emission-driven simulations perform just as well as concentration driven models despite the added process-realism. Due to this we recommend ESMs in future CMIP phases to perform emission-driven simulations as the standard so that climate-carbon cycle feedbacks are fully active. The inclusion of nitrogen limitation led to a large improvement in photosynthesis compared to models not including this process, suggesting the need to view the nitrogen cycle as a necessary part of all future carbon cycle models.

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