平均收入对工作经验的依赖性建模
Modelling the average income dependence on work experience
摘要:
平均和中位数的收入依赖于工作经验和时间进行了分析,并为美国建模。原始数据集提供的平均和中位数收入估计在10年长的间隔跨越了近35年的长时间?从1967年到2003年。一个连接个人收入、人口年龄结构和人均国内生产总值的微观经济模型被用来预测各年龄组的平均收入值及其随时间的相对演变。还模拟了工作经验的价值,其中平均收入增长结束,并开始随着年龄的增长呈指数下降。随着时间的推移,工作经验随着人均国内生产总值增长的平方根而增加。考虑到潜在的人均增长率为1.6%,对每个年龄组的未来20年进行了预测。美国1987年平均收入对工作经验的依赖与英国2002年的一致?这些国家的人均国内生产总值相等的年份。
英文摘要:
The average and median income dependence on work experience and time is analyzed and modeled for the USA. The original data set providing the mean and median income estimates in 10 year long intervals spans a long time period of almost 35 years ? from 1967 to 2003. A microeconomic model linking personal income, population age structure and GDP per capita is used to predict the mean income values in various age groups and their relative evolution in time. Also modeled is the value of work experience where the mean income growth ends and it starts to drop exponentially with increasing age. This work experience increases through time as the square root of the per capita GDP growth. Prediction for the following 20 years is given for each age group considering potential per capita growth rate of 1.6%. The USA mean income dependence on work experience for 1987 coincides with that for 2002 in the UK ? the years when per capita GDP were equal in the countries.
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