The present earth warming up is often explained by the atmosphere gas greenhouse effect. This explanation is in contradiction with the thermodynamics second law. The warming up by greenhouse effect is quite improbable. It is cloud reflection that gives to the earth s ground its 15 degres C mean temperature. Since the reflection of the radiation by gases is negligible, the role of the atmosphere greenhouse gases in the earth warming up by earth radiation reflection loses its importance. We think that natural climatic oscillations contribute more to earth climatic disturbances. The oscillation that we hypothesize to exist has a long period (800 to 1000 years). The glacier melting and regeneration cycles lead to variations in the cold region ocean water density and thermal conductibility according to their salinity. These variations lead one to think about a macro climate oscillating between maximum hot and minimum cold temperatures. This oscillation is materialized by the passages of the planet through hot, mild, and cold eras, leading to the great season climatic oscillation phenomenon (GSCO). Thus, our planet lives four great seasons a great spring, a great summer, a great winter and a great autumn/fall, making a great year embracing our four small classical yearly seasons. The probabilistic character of the parameters that are at the origin of this climatic oscillation makes the long-term prediction less precise but the deterministic tendencies and the resonance phenomena give precious information on our planet climatic future. The present warming up is well interpreted in the frame of the great season climatic oscillation theory.
Investigating Central England Temperature Variability: Statistical Analysis of Associations with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Quantitative implications of the secondary role of carbon dioxide climate forcing in the past glacial-interglacial cycles for the likely future climatic impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcings
Galactic Cosmic Rays - Clouds Effect and Bifurcation Model of the Earth Global Climate. Part 2. Comparison of Theory with Experiment
将地球全球气候能量平衡模型的解与EPICA Dome C和东方号实验观测的420和740 kyr以来地表古温度演化资料进行了比较。在所提出的分岔模型的框架下，（1）从理论上论证了末次冰期可能的Dansgaard-Oeschger型随机共振急剧变暖;（ii）提出了大气中水的气候敏感性概念，其温度不稳定性具有所谓的滞后回线形式，在此基础上，得到了近100万年来全球冰量的时间序列，与海洋沉积物中δ O-18浓度的时间序列吻合较好;（3）讨论了所谓的“CO2倍增”问题
