气候体制转变的结构突变模式：声明和预报
Structural break models of climatic regime-shifts: claims and forecasts
摘要：
在地面温度系列的结构突变的周检验是用来调查两个常见的索赔全球变暖。Quirk（2009）提出，澳大利亚气温从1910年到现在的上升主要局限于1976年至1979年太平洋十年涛动（PDO）的制度转变。测试发现，1978年澳大利亚和全球气温趋势（HadCRU3GL）以及1982年澳大利亚降雨量的阶跃变化，前后气温持平。Easterling & Wehner（2009）声称，挑出自1997年以来全球气温明显平稳的现象是为了强化一种武断的观点。相反，我们发现1997年前后的温度序列发生了显着变化的证据，与一个巧合的海洋制度转变的证据相印证。我们利用这些显著变化点之间的趋势，在特定假设下生成未来全球温度的预测。
英文摘要：
A Chow test for structural breaks in the surface temperature series is used to investigate two common claims about global warming. Quirk (2009) proposed that the increase in Australian temperature from 1910 to the present was largely confined to a regime-shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) between 1976 and 1979. The test finds a step change in both Australian and global temperature trends in 1978 (HadCRU3GL), and in Australian rainfall in 1982 with flat temperatures before and after. Easterling & Wehner (2009) claimed that singling out the apparent flatness in global temperature since 1997 is 'cherry picking' to reinforce an arbitrary point of view. On the contrary, we find evidence for a significant change in the temperature series around 1997, corroborated with evidence of a coincident oceanographic regime-shift. We use the trends between these significant change points to generate a forecast of future global temperature under specific assumptions.
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