Galactic Cosmic Rays - Clouds Effect and Bifurcation Model of the Earth Global Climate. Part 2. Comparison of Theory with Experiment
Vitaliy D. Rusov, Vladimir N. Vaschenko, Elena P. Linnika, ?ksana T. Myhalus, Yuriy A. Bondartchuk, Vladimir P. Smolyar, Sergey I. Kosenko, Strachimir Cht. Mavr… 展开作者
Vitaliy D. Rusov, Vladimir N. Vaschenko, Elena P. Linnika, ?ksana T. Myhalus, Yuriy A. Bondartchuk, Vladimir P. Smolyar, Sergey I. Kosenko, Strachimir Cht. Mavrodiev, Boyko I. Vachev
备注：
19 pages, 4 figures
发表信息：
Published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics Vol. 72 (2010) p. 380-497
The solution of energy-balance model of the Earth global climate and the EPICA Dome C and Vostok experimental data of the Earth surface palaeotemperature evolution over past 420 and 740 kyr are compared. In the framework of proposed bifurcation model (i) the possible sharp warmings of the Dansgaard-Oeschger type during the last glacial period due to stochastic resonance is theoretically argued; (ii) the concept of climatic sensitivity of water in the atmosphere, whose temperature instability has the form of so-called hysteresis loop, is proposed, and based of this concept the time series of global ice volume over the past 1000 kyr, which is in good agreement with the time series of delta O-18 concentration in the sea sediments, is obtained; (iii) the so-called "CO2 doubling" problem is discussed
Understanding how sea ice melts is critical to climate projections. In the Arctic, melt ponds that develop on the surface of sea ice floes during the late spring and summer largely determine their albedo -- a key parameter in climate modeling. Here we explore the possibility of a conceptual sea ice climate model passing through a bifurcation point -- an irreversible critical threshold as the system warms, by incorporating geometric information about melt pond evolution. This study is based on a bifurcation analysis of the energy balance climate model with ice - albedo feedback as the key mecha…
Based on theoretical and experimental consideration of the first (the Twomey effect) and second indirect aerosol effects the quasianalytic description of physical connection between the galactic cosmic rays intensity and the Earth's cloud cover is obtained. It is shown that the basic equation of the Earth's climate energy-balance model is described by the bifurcation equation (with respect to the temperature of the Earth's surface) in the form of assembly-type catastrophe with the two governing parameters defining the variations of insolation and Earth's magnetic field (or the galactic cosmic …
Among the most puzzling questions in climate change is that of solar-climate variability, which has attracted the attention of scientists for more than two centuries. Until recently, even the existence of solar-climate variability has been controversial - perhaps because the observations had largely involved temporary correlations between climate and the sunspot cycle. Over the last few years, however, diverse reconstructions of past climate change have revealed clear associations with cosmic ray variations recorded in cosmogenic isotope archives, providing persuasive evidence for solar or cos…
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that determines the best stochastic fit to the existing data. This provides the evolution rate of the effective control parameter, the variation of the stability coefficient, the path itself and its tipping point. By assessing the actual effective level of noise in the available time series, we are then able to make probability estimates of the time of tipping. This…
The problem of the contribution of cosmic rays to climate change is a continuing one and one of importance. In principle, at least, the recent results from the CLOUD project at CERN provide information about the role of ionizing particles in 'sensitizing' atmospheric aerosols which might, later, give rise to cloud droplets. Our analysis shows that, although important in cloud physics the results do not lead to the conclusion that cosmic rays affect atmospheric clouds significantly, at least if H2SO4 is the dominant source of aerosols in the atmosphere. An analysis of the very recent studies of…
In this paper we analyse a dynamical system based on the so-called KCG (Källén, Crafoord, Ghil) conceptual climate model. This model describes an evolution of the globally averaged temperature and the average extent of the ice sheets. In the nondimensional form the model is prone to several simplifications facilitating the subsequent analysis. We consider the limiting case of the stationary snow line for which the phase plane can be completely analysed and the type of each stationary point can be determined. One of them can exhibit the Hopf bifurcation for which occurrence we find the sufficie…
Variations in the flux of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) at Earth during the last 4.6 billion years are constructed from information about the Star Formation Rate (SFR) in the Milky Way and the evolution of solar activity. The variations of GCR show a remarkable resemblance to changes in Earth's climate during the period considered, suggesting that Earths climate is closely linked to the evolution of our Milky Way. The link could be significant in the solution of the 'faint sun climate paradox'.
It has been proposed that galactic cosmic rays may influence the Earth's climate by affecting cloud formation. If changes in cloudiness play a part in climate change, their effect changes sign in Antarctica. Satellite data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) are here used to calculate the changes in surface temperatures at all latitudes, due to small percentage changes in cloudiness. The results match the observed contrasts in temperature changes, globally and in Antarctica. Evidently clouds do not just respond passively to climate changes but take an active part in the forcing, …
The glacial cycles are attributed to the climatic response of the orbital changes in the irradiance to the Earth. These changes in the forcing are to small to explain the observed climate variations as simple linear responses. Non-linear amplifications are necessary to account for the glacial cycles. Here an empirical model of the non-linear response is presented. From the model it is possible to assess the role of stochastic noise in comparison to the deterministic orbital forcing of the ice ages. The model is based on the bifurcation structure derived from the climate history. It indicates t…
The energy-balance model of global climate, which is taking into account a nontrivial role of solar and galactic protons, is presented. The model is described by the equation of fold catastrophe relative to increment of temperature, where the variation of a solar insolation and cosmic rays are control parameters. It is shown that the bifurcation equation of the model describes one of two stable states of the climate system. The solution of this equation exhibits the property of the determined bistable behavior of climate at the global level and the possibility of appearance of the determined c…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports substantial amounts of heat into the North Atlantic sector, and hence is of very high importance in regional climate projections. The AMOC has been observed to show multi-stability across a range of models of different complexity. The simplest models find a bifurcation associated with the AMOC `on' state losing stability that is a saddle node. Here we study a physically derived global oceanic model of Wood {\em et al} with five boxes, that is calibrated to runs of the FAMOUS coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. We…
Our previous results on the connection between the Forbush decreases (FD) of cosmic-ray intensity and the deviations from the expected values of the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are briefly revisited. The same type of analysis is then extended to the cases of sudden increases of cosmic-ray intensity (GLE), as well as to the search for lattitude effects in the observed correlations. We find that all the investigated correlations appear to manifest both the expected signs and the plausible phase relations, though each one only at the modest confidence level. Moreover, it appears that there is…
Due to climate change, the interest of studying our climatic system using mathematical modeling has become tremendous in recent years. One well-known model is Budyko's system, which represents the coupled evolution of two variables, the ice-line and the average earth surface temperature. The system depends on natural parameters, such as the earth albedo, and the amount A of carbon in the atmosphere. We introduce a 3-dimensional extension of this model in which we regard A as the third coupled variable of the system. We analyze the phase space and dependence on parameters, looking for Hopf bifu…
The influence of solar variability on climate is currently uncertain. Recent observations have indicated a possible mechanism via the influence of solar modulated cosmic rays on global cloud cover. Surprisingly the influence of solar variability is strongest in low clouds (<= 3km), which points to a microphysical mechanism involving aerosol formation that is enhanced by ionisation due to cosmic rays. If confirmed it suggests that the average state of the Heliosphere is important for climate on Earth.
In this paper, we have provided an overview of cosmic ray effects on terrestrial processes such as electrical properties, global electric circuit, lightning, cloud formation, cloud coverage, atmospheric temperature, space weather phenomena, climate, etc. It is suggested that cosmic rays control short term and long term variation in climate. There are many basic phenomena which need further study and require new and long term data set. Some of these have been pointed out.
We revisit a recent claim that the Earth's climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such a response would imply irreducible uncertainty in climate change predictions and thus have notable implications for climate science and climate-related policy making. We show that equilibrium climate sensitivity in all generality does not support such an intrinsic indeterminacy; the latter appears only in essentially linear systems. The main flaw in the ana…
Tipping points (TPs) in the Earth system have been studied with growing interest and concern in recent years due to the potential risk of anthropogenic forcing causing abrupt, and possibly irreversible, climate transitions. Paleoclimate records are essential for identifying TPs in Earth's past and for properly understanding the climate system's underlying nonlinearities and bifurcation mechanisms. Due to the variations in quality, resolution, and dating methods, it is crucial to select the records that give the best representation of past climates. Furthermore, as paleoclimate time series vary…
We consider simple stochastic climate models, described by slowly time-dependent Langevin equations. We show that when the noise intensity is not too large, these systems can spend substantial amounts of time in metastable equilibrium, instead of adiabatically following the stationary distribution of the frozen system. This behaviour can be characterized by describing the location of typical paths, and bounding the probability of atypical paths. We illustrate this approach by giving a quantitative description of phenomena associated with bistability, for three famous examples of simple climate…
In this last Paper III additional evidences that the solar high energetic particles radiation with energies higher as 100 MeV (the solar cosmic rays SCR) is an very important component for the "Sun- climate" relationship are given (see also Paper I and II). The total solar irradiance (TSI) and the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) variations given an integral climate effect of cooling in sunspot minima and warming in the sunspot maxima. Unlike the both ones the powerful solar corpuscular events plays a cooling climate role during the epochs of their heigh levels. By this one subcenturial global and r…
We analyze the stability of a low-order coupled sea ice and climate model and extract the essential physics governing the time scales of response as a function of greenhouse gas forcing. Under present climate conditions the stability is controlled by longwave radiation driven heat conduction. However, as greenhouse gas forcing increases and the ice cover decays, the destabilizing influence of ice-albedo feedback acts on equal footing with longwave stabilization. Both are seasonally out of phase and as the system warms towards a seasonal ice state these effects, which underlie the bifurcations …
Evidence is emerging for physical links among clouds, global temperatures, the global atmospheric electrical circuit and cosmic ray ionisation. The global circuit extends throughout the atmosphere from the planetary surface to the lower layers of the ionosphere. Cosmic rays are the principal source of atmospheric ions away from the continental boundary layer: the ions formed permit a vertical conduction current to flow in the fair weather part of the global circuit. Through the (inverse) solar modulation of cosmic rays, the resulting columnar ionisation changes may allow the global circuit to …
A striking correlation has recently been observed between global cloud cover and the flux of incident cosmic rays. The effect of natural variations in the cosmic ray flux is large, causing estimated changes in the Earth's energy radiation balance that are comparable to those attributed to greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution. However a direct link between cosmic rays and cloud formation has not been unambiguously established. We therefore propose to experimentally measure cloud (water droplet) formation under controlled conditions in a test beam at …
Glacial-interglacial cycles are large variations in continental ice mass and greenhouse gases, which have dominated climate variability over the Quaternary. The dominant periodicity of the cycles is $\sim $40 kyr before the so-called middle Pleistocene transition between $\sim$1.2 and $\sim$0.7 Myr ago, and it is $\sim $100 kyr after the transition. In this paper, the dynamics of glacial-interglacial cycles are investigated using a phase oscillator model forced by the time-varying incoming solar radiation (insolation). We analyze the bifurcations of the system and show that strange nonchaotic …
There is widespread agreement that ice sheets flowed into the ocean in tropical latitudes at sea level during the Earth's past. Whether these extreme ice ages were snowball Earth events, with the entire surface covered in ice, or whether ocean water remained ice free in regions about the equator, continues to be controversial. For the latter situation to occur, the effect of positive ice albedo feedback would have to be damped to stabilize an advancing ice sheet shy of the equator. In this paper we analyze a conceptual model comprised of a zonally averaged surface temperature equation coupled …
Recent satellite data have revealed a surprising correlation between galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity and the fraction of the Earth covered by clouds. If this correlation were to be established by a causal mechanism, it could provide a crucial step in understanding the long-sought mechanism connecting solar and climate variability. The Earth's climate seems to be remarkably sensitive to solar activity, but variations of the Sun's electromagnetic radiation appear to be too small to account for the observed climate variability. However, since the GCR intensity is strongly modulated by the sol…
The first opportunity to detect indications for life outside the Solar System may be provided already within the next decade with upcoming missions such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT) and/or the Atmospheric Remote-sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey (ARIEL) mission, searching for atmospheric biosignatures on planets in the habitable zone of cool K- and M-stars. Nevertheless, their harsh stellar radiation and particle environment could lead to photochemical loss of atmospheric biosignatures. We aim to study the influence of cosmic ra…
We examine the results linking cosmic ray flux (CRF) variations to global climate change. We then proceed to study various periods over which there are estimates for the radiative forcing, temperature change and CRF variations relative to today. These include the Phanerozoic as a whole, the Cretaceous, the Eocene, the Last Glacial Maximum, the 20th century, as well as the 11-yr solar cycle. This enables us to place quantitative limits on climate sensitivity to both changes in the CRF, Phi_CR, and the radiative budget, F, under equilibrium. Under the assumption that the CRF is indeed a climate …
Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system's response to perturbations. Near critical transitions small causes can lead to large effects and - for all practical purposes - irreversible changes in the properties of the system. The Earth climate is multistable: present astronomical and astrophysical conditions support two stable regimes, the warm climate we live in, and a snowball climate, characterized by global glaciation. We first provide an overview of methods and ideas relevant for studying the c…
Numerous empirical studies have analyzed International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project data and reached contradictory conclusions regarding the influence of solar-modulated galactic cosmic rays on cloud fraction and cloud properties. The Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) instrument on the Terra satellite has been in continuous operation for 13 years and thus provides an independent (and previously unutilized) cloud data set to investigate purported solar-cloud links. Furthermore, unlike many previous solar-climate studies that report cloud fraction MISR measures albedo, which has…
Abrupt transitions are ubiquitous in the dynamics of complex systems. Finding precursors, i.e. early indicators of their arrival, is fundamental in many areas of science ranging from electrical engineering to climate. However, obtaining warnings of an approaching transition well in advance remains an elusive task. Here we show that a functional network, constructed from spatial correlations of the system's time series, experiences a percolation transition way before the actual system reaches a bifurcation point due to the collective phenomena leading to the global change. Concepts from percola…
This study is focused on the effects of cosmic rays (solar activity) and halogenated molecules (mainly chlorofluorocarbons-CFCs) on atmospheric O3 depletion and global climate change. Brief reviews are first given on the cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced-reaction (CRE) theory for O3 depletion and the warming theory of CFCs for climate change. Then natural and anthropogenic contributions are examined in detail and separated well through in-depth statistical analyses of comprehensive measured datasets. For O3 loss, new statistical analyses of the CRE equation with observed data of total O3 and …
Many climate subsystems are thought to be susceptible to tipping - and some might be close to a tipping point. The general belief and intuition, based on simple conceptual models of tipping elements, is that tipping leads to reorganization of the full (sub)system. Here, we explore tipping in conceptual, but spatially extended and spatially heterogenous models. These are extensions of conceptual models taken from all sorts of climate system components on multiple spatial scales. By analysis of the bifurcation structure of such systems, special stable equilibrium states are revealed: coexistence…
It has been proposed that cosmic ray events could have a causal relationship with cloud formation rates. Given the weak constraints on the role that cloud formation plays in climate forcing it is essential to understand the role such a relationship could have in shaping the Earth's climate. This issue has been previously investigated in the context of the long-term effect of cosmic ray events on climate. However, in order to establish whether or not such a relationship exists, measurements of short-timescale solar events, individual cosmic ray events, and spatially correlated cloud parameters …
Numerous laboratory measurements have provided a sound physical basis for the cosmic-ray driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) mechanism of halogen-containing molecules for the ozone hole. And observed spatial and time correlations between polar ozone loss or stratospheric cooling and cosmic rays have shown strong evidence of the CRE mechanism [Q.-B. Lu, Phys. Rep. 487, 141-167(2010)]. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were also long-known greenhouse gases but were thought to play only a minor role in climate change. However, recent observations have shown evidence of the saturation in greenhouse ef…
An oscillation with a period of about 2100-2500 years, the Hallstatt cycle, is found in cosmogenic radioisotopes (C-14 and Be-10) and in paleoclimate records throughout the Holocene. Herein we demonstrate the astronomical origin of this cycle. Namely, this oscillation is coherent to the major stable resonance involving the four Jovian planets - Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune - whose period is p=2318 yr. The Hallstatt cycle could derive from the rhythmic variation of the circularity of the solar system disk assuming that this dynamics could eventually modulate the solar wind and, consequen…
Global stability of the Atlantic overturning circulation: Edge state, long transients and boundary crisis under CO$_2$ forcing
University of Reading（雷丁大学）；Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University（乌得勒支大学海洋与大气研究所乌得勒支）；Politecnico di Torino（都灵理工大学）；University of Leicester（莱斯特大学）
The Ghil-Sellers energy balance model of Earth's climate, features -- for a considerable range of the solar intensity -- two stable climate states (a warm and a cold snowball Earth), where the bistability results from the celebrated ice-albedo feedback. The unstable solution is obtained and characterized in this paper. We find such unstable states by applying for the first time in a geophysical context the so-called edge tracking method that has been used for studying multiple coexisting states in shear flows. We examine robustness, efficiency, and accuracy properties of the edge tracking algo…
We present the analysis of temperature variations in Portugal for 140 years (from 1865 to 2005). The two stations with the longest time series of temperature measurements (Lisbon and Coimbra) have been used to study the dependence of the portuguese climate variations on the changes of both global circulation and solar activity. Monthly averaged temperature series have been analyzed together with monthly North-Atlantic Oscillation index data, sunspot numbers and cosmic ray flux intensity. Different statistical methods (the correlation analysis and the multiple regression analysis) were used. Ou…
Observations of open star clusters in the solar neighborhood are used to calculate local supernova (SN) rates for the past 510 million years (Myr). Peaks in the SN rates match passages of the Sun through periods of locally increased cluster formation which could be caused by spiral arms of the Galaxy. A statistical analysis indicates that the Solar System has experienced many large short-term increases in the flux of Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) from nearby supernovae. The hypothesis that a high GCR flux should coincide with cold conditions on the Earth is borne out by comparing the general geol…
Recent results have strongly confirmed that multiple supernovae happened at distances ~100 pc consisting of two main events: one at 1.7 to 3.2 million years ago, and the other at 6.5 to 8.7 million years ago. These events are said to be responsible for excavating the Local Bubble in the interstellar medium and depositing 60Fe on Earth and the Moon. Other events are indicated by effects in the local cosmic ray (CR) spectrum. Given this updated and refined picture, we ask whether such supernovae are expected to have had substantial effects on the terrestrial atmosphere and biota. In a first cut …
