更新世冰期旋回中的分岔结构和噪声诱导的转变
The bifurcation structure and noise induced transitions in the Pleistocene glacial cycles
摘要：
冰川周期是地球辐照度轨道变化的气候响应。这些强迫的变化太小，无法将观测到的气候变化解释为简单的线性响应。非线性放大是必要的，以占冰川周期。这里提出了一个非线性响应的经验模型。从模型中，它是可能的随机噪声的作用进行评估相比，确定性的轨道强迫的冰河时代。该模式是基于气候历史的分叉结构。它表明了中更新世从“41kyr世界”到“100kyr世界”的过渡（MPT）的动力学起源。后者的主导强迫仍然是41kyr周期，但气候系统的分叉结构发生了变化。该模型表明，冰期和间冰期气候之间的过渡是由内部的随机噪声在前五个冰期周期的帮助下，而最后五个周期是确定性的轨道强迫的响应。
英文摘要：
The glacial cycles are attributed to the climatic response of the orbital changes in the irradiance to the Earth. These changes in the forcing are to small to explain the observed climate variations as simple linear responses. Non-linear amplifications are necessary to account for the glacial cycles. Here an empirical model of the non-linear response is presented. From the model it is possible to assess the role of stochastic noise in comparison to the deterministic orbital forcing of the ice ages. The model is based on the bifurcation structure derived from the climate history. It indicates the dynamical origin of the Mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT) from the '41 kyr world' to the '100 kyr world'. The dominant forcing in the latter is still the 41 kyr obliquity cycle, but the bifurcation structure of the climate system is changed. The model indicates that transitions between glacial and interglacial climate are assisted by internal stochastic noise in the period prior to the last five glacial cycles, while the last five cycles are deterministic responses to the orbital forcing.
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