In this paper we perform a careful analysis of the forced PP04 model for climate change, in particular the behaviour of the ice-ages. This system models the transition from a glacial to an inter-glacial state through a sudden release of oceanic Carbon Dioxide into the atmosphere. This process can be cast in terms of a Filippov dynamical system, with a discontinuous change in its dynamics related to the Carbon Dioxide release. By using techniques from the theory of non-smooth dynamical systems, we give an analysis of this model in the cases of both no insolation forcing and also periodic insolation forcing. This reveals a rich, and novel, dynamical structure to the solutions of the PP04 model. In particular we see synchronised periodic solutions with subtle regions of existence which depend on the amplitude and frequency of the forcing. The orbits can be created/destroyed in both smooth and discontinuity induced bifurcations. We study both the orbits and the transitions between them and make comparisons with actual climate dynamics.
We propose a method to identify and to locate "repellers'' in quasi-periodically forced logistic map (QPLM), using a kind of Morse decomposition of nested attracting invariant sets. In order to obtain the invariant sets, we use an auxiliary 1+2-dimensional skew-product map system describing the evolution of a line segment in the phase space of QPLM. With this method, detailed structure of repellers can be visualized, and the emergence of a repeller in QPLM can be detected as an easily observable bifurcation in the auxiliary system. In addition to the method to detect the repellers, we propose …
We prove that the seasonally-forced SIR model with a T-periodic forcing has a periodic solution with period T whenever the basic reproductive number R0>1. The proof uses the Leray-Schauder degree theory. We also describe some numerical results in which we compute the T-periodic solution, where in order to obtain the T-periodic solution when the behavior of the system is subharmonic or chaotic, we use a Galerkin scheme.
We study the bifurcations and the chaotic behaviour of a periodically forced double-well Duffing oscillator coupled to a single-well Duffing oscillator. Using the amplitude and the frequency of the driving force as control parameters, we show that our model presents phenomena which were not observed in coupled periodically forced Duffing oscillators with identical potentials. In the regime of relatively weak coupling, bubbles of bifurcations and chains of symmetry-breaking are identified. For much stronger couplings, Hopf bifurcations born from orbits of higher periodicity and supercritical Ne…
We perform a detailed study of the dynamics of a nonlinear, one-dimensional oscillator driven by a periodic force under hysteretic damping, whose linear version was originally proposed and analyzed by Bishop in [1]. We first add a small quadratic stiffness term in the constitutive equation and construct the periodic solution of the problem by a systematic perturbation method, neglecting transient terms as $t\rightarrow \infty$. We then repeat the analysis replacing the quadratic by a cubic term, which does not allow the solutions to escape to infinity. In both cases, we examine the dependence …
The fact that the Earth climate is a highly complex dynamical system is well-known. In the last few decades a lot of effort has been focused on understanding how climate phenomena in one geographical region affects the climate of other regions. Complex networks are a powerful framework for identifying climate interdependencies. To further exploit the knowledge of the links uncovered via the network analysis (for, e.g., improvements in prediction), a good understanding of the physical mechanisms underlying these links is required. Here we focus in understanding the role of atmospheric variabili…
A complete bifurcation analysis of explicit dynamical equations for the periodically forced Kuramoto model was performed in [L. M. Childs and S. H. Strogatz. Chaos 18 , 043128 (2008)], identifying all bifurcations within the model. We show that the phase diagram predicted by this analysis is incomplete. Our numerical analysis of the equations reveals that the model can also undergo an abrupt phase transition from oscillations to wobbly rotations of the order parameter under increasing field frequency or decreasing field strength. This transition was not revealed by bifurcation analysis because…
In sensory neurons the presence of noise can facilitate the detection of weak information-carrying signals, which are encoded and transmitted via correlated sequences of spikes. Here we investigate relative temporal order in spike sequences induced by a subthreshold periodic input, in the presence of white Gaussian noise. To simulate the spikes, we use the FitzHugh-Nagumo model, and to investigate the output sequence of inter-spike intervals (ISIs), we use the symbolic method of ordinal analysis. We find different types of relative temporal order, in the form of preferred ordinal patterns whic…
Complex network theory provides an elegant and powerful framework to statistically investigate different types of systems such as society, brain or the structure of local and long-range dynamical interrelationships in the climate system. Network links in climate networks typically imply information, mass or energy exchange. However, the specific connection between oceanic or atmospheric flows and the climate network's structure is still unclear. We propose a theoretical approach for verifying relations between the correlation matrix and the climate network measures, generalizing previous studi…
The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject to various external forcings, natural as well as anthropogenic. This paper reviews the observational evidence on climate phenomena and the governing equations of planetary-scale flow, as well as presenting the key concept of a hierarchy of models as used in the climate sciences. Recent advances in the application of dynamical systems theory, on the one hand…
We present a general method for systematically investigating the dynamics and bifurcations of a physical nonlinear experiment. In particular, we show how the odd-number limitation inherent in popular non-invasive control schemes, such as (Pyragas) time-delayed or washout-filtered feedback control, can be overcome for tracking equilibria or forced periodic orbits in experiments. To demonstrate the use of our non-invasive control, we trace out experimentally the resonance surface of a periodically forced mechanical nonlinear oscillator near the onset of instability, around two saddle-node bifurc…
The goal of this paper is twofold. In the first part we discuss a general approach to determine Lyapunov exponents from ensemble- rather than time-averages. The approach passes through the identification of locally stable and unstable manifolds (the Lyapunov vectors), thereby revealing an analogy with generalized synchronization. The method is then applied to a periodically forced chaotic oscillator to show that the modulus of the Lyapunov exponent associated to the phase dynamics increases quadratically with the coupling strength and it is therefore different from zero already below the onset…
Seasonal variation in environmental variables, and in rates of contact among individuals, are fundamental drivers of infectious disease dynamics. Unlike most periodically-forced physical systems, for which the precise pattern of forcing is typically known, underlying patterns of seasonal variation in transmission rates can be estimated approximately at best, and only the period of forcing is accurately known. Yet solutions of epidemic models depend strongly on the forcing function, so dynamical predictions---such as changes in epidemic patterns that can be induced by demographic transitions or…
In various models and systems involving the escape of periodically forced particle from the potential well, a common pattern is observed. Namely, the minimal forcing amplitude required for the escape exhibits sharp minimum for the excitation frequency below the natural frequency of small oscillations in the well. The paper explains this regularity by exploring the transient escape dynamics in simple benchmark potential wells. In the truncated parabolic well, in absence of the damping the minimal forcing amplitude obviously tends to zero for the natural excitation frequency. Addition of weak sy…
We numerically study dynamical behaviors of the quasiperiodically forced Hodgkin-Huxley neuron and compare the dynamical responses with those for the case of periodic stimulus. In the periodically forced case, a transition from a periodic to a chaotic oscillation was found to occur via period doublings in previous numerical and experimental works. We investigate the effect of the quasiperiodic forcing on this period-doubling route to chaotic oscillation. In contrast to the case of periodic forcing, new type of strange nonchaotic (SN) oscillating states (that are geometrically strange but have …
The dynamics of glacial cycles is studied in terms of the dynamical systems theory. We explore the dependence of the climate state on the phase of astronomical forcing by examining five conceptual models of glacial cycles proposed in the literature. The models can be expressed as quasiperiodically forced dynamical systems. It is shown that four of them exhibit a strange nonchaotic attractor (SNA), which is an intermediate regime between quasiperiodicity and chaos. Then, the dependence of the climate state on the phase of astronomical forcing is not given by smooth relations, but constitutes a …
