岩石圈孕震区是一个“开放的物理系统”。它在地震学方面的某些意义。零件- II。最大预期震级测定
The seismogenic area in the lithosphere considered as an "Open Physical System". Its implications on some seismological aspects. Part - II. Maximum expected magnitude determination
摘要：
认为岩石圈中的孕震区是一个开放的物理系统。根据先前提出的能量平衡分析（第一部分，Thanassoulas，2008年），研究了孕震区处于正常孕震条件（输入能量等于释放能量）下的具体情况。在这种情况下，累积地震能量释放是线性时间函数。从这个线性函数出发，提出了一种确定未来地震最大预期震级的方法。所提出的方法已被测试“后验”从希腊境内，美国和地震学文献中获得的数据的真实EQ。所获得的结果验证的方法，同时提出的分析，证明所获得的高精度相比，相应的计算EQ震级与地震学方法。
英文摘要：
The (any) seismogenic area in the lithosphere is considered as an open physical system. Following its energy balance analysis earlier presented (Part - I, Thanassoulas, 2008), the specific case when the seismogenic area is under normal (input energy equals released energy) seismogenic conditions is studied. In this case the cumulative seismic energy release is a linear time function. Starting from this linear function a method is postulated for the determination of the maximum expected magnitude of a future earthquake. The proposed method has been tested "a posteriori" on real EQs from the Greek territory, USA and data obtained from the seismological literature. The obtained results validate the methodology while an analysis is presented that justifies the obtained high degree of accuracy compared to the corresponding calculated EQ magnitudes with seismological methods.
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