The statistical properties of earthquake aftershocks are studied. The scaling relation for the exponents of the Omori law and the power-law calm time distribution (i.e., the interoccurrence time distribution), which is valid if a sequence of aftershocks is a singular Markovian process, is carefully examined. Data analysis shows significant violation of the scaling relation, implying the non-Markovian nature of aftershocks.
Aftershocks of the 2012 Off-Coast of Sumatra Earthquake Sequence exhibit a complex and diffuse spatial distribution. The first-order complexity in aftershock distribution is clear and well beyond the influence of typical earthquake location uncertainty. The sequence included rupture of multiple fault segments, spatially separated. We use surface-wave based relative centroid locations to examine whether, at the small scale, the distribution of the aftershocks was influenced by location errors. Surface-wave based relative location has delineated precise oceanic transform fault earthquake locatio…
Yes. Interval statistics have been used to conclude that major earthquakes are random events in time and cannot be anticipated or predicted. Machine learning is a powerful new technique that enhances our ability to understand the information content of earthquake catalogs. We show that catalogs contain significant information on current hazard and future predictability for large earthquakes.
Strong deep earthquakes occurred in the Sea of Okhotsk, May 24, 2013 at 05:44 UTC. The magnitude of the earthquake is M = 8.3, the depth of the hypocenter is 629 km. The earthquake was accompanied by the deep-focus aftershocks. The paper is devoted to the study of the space-time properties of aftershocks. An estimate is made of the deactivation coefficient of the earthquake source, which "cools down" after the main shock. The modulation of aftershocks by toroidal oscillations of the Earth was discovered. The questions about the round-the-world seismic echo and the ribbed structure of the spati…
Analysis of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on 26.12.2004 (M = 9) has allowed us to identify two non- trivial properties of the dynamics of aftershocks. First, the strongest aftershock (M = 7.2) was likely triggered by the round-the-world seismic echo of the main shock. The idea is that the surface waves propagating outwards from the main shock return back to the vicinity of the epicenter after having made a complete revolution around the Earth and induce there the aftershock. The second property is the modulation of the aftershock sequence by the fundamental oscillation of the Earth 0S2 excite…
The physics of earthquake triggering together with simple assumptions of self-similarity impose the existence of a minimum magnitude m0 below which earthquakes do not trigger other earthquakes. Noting that the magnitude md of completeness of seismic catalogs has no reason to be the same as the magnitude m0 of the smallest triggering earthquake, we use quantitative fits and maximum likelihood inversions of observed aftershock sequences as well as Baath's law, compare with ETAS model predictions and thereby constrain the value of m0. We show that the branching ratio $n$ (average number of trigge…
The aftershock sequence of the devastating Japan earthquake of March 2011 is analyzed for the presence of periodicities at the Earth tide periods. We use spectral analysis as well as a time-domain method KORRECT developed earlier to detect presence of diurnal and semi-diurnal periodicities in the sequence of aftershocks (M \geq 4). This suggests that large aftershocks in the fault zone of the Japan 2011 earthquake were strongly influenced by Earth tides.
The paper is based on the report read by the author on October 24, 2018 at the meeting of the Scientific Council of the Institute of Earth Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The report was dedicated to the 150th anniversary of the outstanding Japanese seismologist Fusakichi Omori. As is known, Omori established the first empirical law of the earthquakes physics, bearing his name. The Omori law states that the frequency of aftershocks on average decreases hyperbolically over the time. Three versions of Omori law are described briefly. The recent version allows to poses the inverse prob…
We analyze 21 aftershock sequences of California to test for evidence of space-time diffusion. Aftershock diffusion may result from stress diffusion and is also predicted by any mechanism of stress weakening. Here, we test an alternative mechanism to explain aftershock diffusion, based on multiple cascades of triggering. In order to characterize aftershock diffusion, we develop two methods, one based on a suitable time and space windowing, the other using a wavelet transform adapted to the removal of background seismicity. Both methods confirm that diffusion of seismic activity is very weak, m…
We propose a new metric to quantify the correlation between any two earthquakes. The metric consists of a product involving the time interval and spatial distance between two events, as well as the magnitude of the first one. According to this metric, events typically are strongly correlated to only one or a few preceding ones. Thus a classification of events as foreshocks, main shocks or aftershocks emerges automatically without imposing predefined space-time windows. To construct a network, each earthquake receives an incoming link from its most correlated predecessor. The number of aftersho…
In statistical seismology, the Epidemic Type Aftershocks Sequence (ETAS) model is a branching process used world-wide to forecast earthquake intensity rates and reproduce many statistical features observed in seismicity catalogs. In this paper, we describe a fractional differential equation that governs the earthquake intensity rate of the pure temporal ETAS model by using the Caputo fractional derivative and we solve it analytically. We highlight that the tools and special functions of fractional calculus simplify the classical methods employed to obtain the intensity rate and let us describe…
The method of waveforms cross correlation (WCC) is used to detect signals from aftershocks of the August 14, 2016 earthquake within Sakhalin Island, which had local magnitude ML = 6.1. Arrivals of regular P- and S-waves detected by the WCC method with various master events at 6 regional stations are associated into a set of seismic events called the cross correlation standard event list (XSEL). We compare the XSEL with the bulletin for the same aftershock sequence compiled in routine seismological processing. The principal advantage of the XSEL is expressed in the increasing number of found se…
In this study, we propose an analysis of the earthquake clusters that occurred in North-Eastern Italy and western Slovenia from 1977 to today. Given a mainshock generating alarm in the population, we are interested in forecasting if a similar magnitude earthquake will follow. We classify the earthquake clusters associated with mainshocks of magnitude Mm into two classes: if the strongest aftershock has a magnitude >=Mm-1 (swarms or large aftershock seismic sequences) as type A, otherwise (smaller aftershocks seismic sequences) as type B. A large aftershock following a main shock can cause sign…
The data analysis of aftershock events of L Aquila earthquake in Apennines following the main 6.3 Mw event of April 6, 2009 has been carried out by standard statistical geophysical tools. The results show the heterogeneity of seismic activity in five different geographical sub-regions indicated by anomalous critical indices of power law distributions: the exponents of the Omori law, the b values of Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution, and the distribution of waiting times. The heterogeneous distribution of dynamic stress and a different morphology in the five sub-regions has bee…
The phenomenon of aftershocks is studied in view of science of complexity. In particular, three different concepts are examined: (i) the complex-network representation of seismicity, (ii) the event-event correlations, and (iii) the effects of long-range memory. Regarding (i), it is shown the clustering coefficient of the complex earthquake network exhibits a peculiar behavior at and after main shocks. Regarding (ii), it is found that aftershocks experience aging, and the associated scaling holds. And regarding (iii), the scaling relation to be satisfied by a class of singular Markovian process…
It is natural to call the trinity of foreshocks, main shock and aftershocks a classical triad. The magnitude of the main shock is always greater than the maximum magnitudes of foreshocks and aftershocks. In the classical triad, the number of foreshocks is less than the number of aftershocks. In many cases, foreshocks are completely absent even before very strong earthquakes. In this work, we found a rare but extremely interesting species of triad (we called it the mirror triad), in which the number of foreshocks is greater than the number of aftershocks at the interval of 24 h before and 24 h …
We invoke a metric to quantify the correlation between any two earthquakes. This provides a simple and straightforward alternative to using space-time windows to detect aftershock sequences and obviates the need to distinguish main shocks from aftershocks. Directed networks of earthquakes are constructed by placing a link, directed from the past to the future, between pairs of events that are strongly correlated. Each link has a weight giving the relative strength of correlation such that the sum over the incoming links to any node equals unity for aftershocks, or zero if the event had no corr…
Recently, the physics of aftershocks has been enriched by three new problems. We will conditionally call them dynamic, inverse, and morphological problems. Dynamic problem is to search for the cumulative effect of a round-the-world seismic echo appearing after the main shock of earthquake. According to the theory, a converging surface seismic wave excited by the main shock returns to the epicenter about 3 hours after the main shock and stimulates the excitation of a strong aftershock. The second problem is an adequate description of the averaged evolution of the aftershock flow. We introduced …
Currently, one of the best performing and most popular earthquake forecasting models rely on the working hypothesis that: "locations of past background earthquakes reveal the probable location of future seismicity". As an alternative, we present a class of smoothed seismicity models (SSMs) based on the principles of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which forecast the location, time and magnitude of all future earthquakes using the estimates of the background seismicity rate and the rates of future aftershocks of all generations. Using the Californian earthquake catalog, we f…
Using the simple ETAS branching model of seismicity, which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes, we quantify the role played by the cascade of triggered seismicity in controlling the rate of aftershock decay as well as the overall level of seismicity in the presence of a constant external seismicity source. We show that, in this model, the fraction of earthquakes in the population that are aftershocks is equal to the fraction of aftershocks that are indirectly triggered and is given by the average number of triggered events per earthquake. Previous observations that a sig…
We consider a branching model of triggered seismicity, the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) model which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes (``aftershocks''). An aftershock sequence results in this model from the cascade of aftershocks of each past earthquake. Due to the large fluctuations of the number of aftershocks triggered directly by any earthquake (``productivity'' or ``fertility''), there is a large variability of the total number of aftershocks from one sequence to another, for the same mainshock magnitude. We study the regime where the distribution of f…
We study the spatial distribution of clusters associated to the aftershocks of the megathrust Maule earthquake MW 8.8 of 27 February 2010. We used a recent clustering method which hinges on a nonparametric estimation of the underlying probability density function to detect subsets of points forming clusters associated with high density areas. In addition, we estimate the probability density function using a nonparametric kernel method for each of these clusters. This allows us to identify a set of regions where there is an association between frequency of events and coseismic slip. Our results…
One hundred years ago, Fusakichi Omori died. Our paper is dedicated to his memory. Omori made an outstanding contribution to the physics of earthquakes. In 1894 he formulated the law of aftershock evolution. Omori's Law states that after the main shock of an earthquake, the frequency of aftershocks decreases hyperbolically with time. In this paper, we briefly describe one of the directions of modern aftershock research. Keywords: earthquake, mainshock, aftershock, evolution equation, deactivation coefficient, inverse problem, trigger, proper time.
The presented paper is devoted to the search for mathematical basis for describing the aftershock evolution of strong earthquakes. We consider the experimental facts and heuristic arguments that allow to make a choice and to focus on the nonlinear diffusion equation as the master equation. Analysis of the master equation indicates that, apparently, the selected mathematical basis makes it possible to simulate two important properties of the aftershock evolution known from the experiment. We are talking about the Omori law and the slow propagation of aftershocks from the epicenter of the main s…
The analysis of the classical and mirror triads of the sequence of earthquakes has been carried out in order to find the equations of evolution of foreshocks and aftershocks. The differential equation with cubic (quadratic) nonlinearity has been proposed to describe the activity of foreshocks (aftershocks). The solution of the governing equation for foreshocks indicates the explosive instability of rocks, leading to the main rupture and the main shock of the earthquake. It is suggested that explosive instability leads to a first-order phase transition, in which the main parameters of the earth…
A measure of the correlation between two earthquakes is used to link events to their aftershocks, generating a growing network structure. In this framework one can quantify whether an aftershock is close or far, from main shocks of all magnitudes. We find that simple network motifs involving links to far aftershocks appear frequently before the three biggest earthquakes of the last 16 years in Southern California. Hence, networks could be useful to detect symptoms typically preceding major events.
Recently, simple differential models of aftershocks have attracted increased attention of researchers at the Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences for their remarkable properties. The shortened Bernoulli equation allows us to introduce the concept of the source deactivation factor and phenomenologically describe the nonstationarity of the geological environment in the earthquake source, "cooling down" after the main shock. The Verhulst logistic equation makes it possible to take into account the transition of the aftershock flow to the background seismicity mode. The K…
A megathrust subduction earthquake (Mw7.8) struck the coast of Ecuador on April 16th, 2016 at 23h58 UTC. This earthquake is one of the best-recorded megathrust events up to date. Besides the mainshock, two large aftershocks have been recorded on May 18th, 2016, at 7h57 (Mw 6.7) and 16h46 (Mw6.9). These data make a significant contribution for understanding the attenuation of ground motions in Ecuador. Peak ground accelerations and spectral accelerations are compared with four ground-motion prediction equations developed for interface earthquakes, the global Abrahamson et al. (2016) model, the …
Earthquake Aftershock Forecasting using Conditional Generative Models
Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校地球与行星科学系）；Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校伯克利地震实验室）
Based on waveform data from a profile of aftershocks following the north-south trace of the June 28, 1992 Landers rupture across the Mojave desert, we construct a new velocity model for the Mojave region which features a thin, slow crust. Using this model, we obtain source parameters, including depth and duration, for each of the aftershocks in the profile, and in addition, any significant (M>3.7) Joshua Tree--Landers aftershock between April, 1992 and October, 1994 for which coherent TERRAscope data were available. In all, we determine source parameters and stress-drops for 45 significant (M_…
After a large earthquake, the likelihood of successive strong aftershocks needs to be estimated. Exploiting similarities with critical phenomena, we introduce a scaling law for the decay in time following a main shock of the expected number of aftershocks greater than a certain magnitude. Empirical results that support our scaling hypothesis are obtained from analyzing the record of earthquakes in California. The proposed form unifies the well-known Omori and Gutenberg-Richter laws of seismicity, together with other phenomenological observations. Our results substantially modify presently empl…
Earthquake aftershock identification is closely related to the question "Are aftershocks different from the rest of earthquakes?" We give a positive answer to this question and introduce a general statistical procedure for clustering analysis of seismicity that can be used, in particular, for aftershock detection. The proposed approach expands the analysis of Baiesi and Paczuski [PRE, 69, 066106 (2004)] based on the space-time-magnitude nearest-neighbor distance $η$ between earthquakes. We show that for a homogeneous Poisson marked point field with exponential marks, the distance $η$ has Weibu…
Omori Law describes the evolution of the aftershocks of a strong earthquake. Established at the end of the century before last, it is characterized by the beauty of its form, quite definite clarity, as a result of which it still attracts considerable attention of the geophysical community. In recent years, we have accumulated considerable experience in studying the Omori law by theoretical and experimental methods. This paper summarizes the results of our study briefly. The main attention is focused on the phenomenological theory of aftershocks, the foundations of which were laid by Fusakichi …
Earthquakes and aftershock sequences follow several empirical scaling laws: One of these laws is Bath's law for the magnitude of the largest aftershock. In this work, Modified Form of Bath's Law and its application to KOERI data have been studied. Bath's law states that the differences in magnitudes between mainshocks and their largest detected aftershocks are approximately constant, independent of the magnitudes of mainshocks and it is about 1.2. In the modified form of Bath's law for a given mainshock we get the inferred largest aftershock of this mainshock by using an extrapolation of the G…
By analyzing a southern California earthquake catalog, Davidsen and Paczuski [Phys. Rev. Lett. 94, 048501 (2005)] claim to have found evidence contradicting the theory of aftershock zone scaling in favor of scale-free statistics. We present four elements showing that Davidsen and Paczuski's results may be insensitive to the existence of physical length scales associated with aftershock zones or mainshock rupture lengths, so that their claim is unsubstantiated. (i) Their exponent smaller than 1 for a pdf implies that the power law statistics they report is at best an intermediate asymptotic; (i…
We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of earthquakes is constructed, which is time ordered and with links between the more correlated ones. Recurrences to earthquakes are identified employing correlation thresholds to demarcate the most meaningful ones in each cluster. Data pertaining to three different seismic regions, viz. California, Japan and Himalayas, are comparatively analyzed using such a network …
The earthquake source after the main shock can theoretically be represented as a black box without an entrance. At the output, there is a signal in the form of aftershocks, the frequency of which decreases on average with time according to the Omori law. The task of the researcher is to evaluate the structure, state and mechanism of functioning of a dynamic system simulating the earthquake source based on the output signal. In this paper, we outline an approach to a partial solution of this general problem. Omori's law is presented as a differential equation of aftershock evolution. An inverse…
Spatial distances between subsequent earthquakes in southern California exhibit scale-free statistics, with a critical exponent $δ\approx 0.6$, as well as finite size scaling. The statistics are independent of the threshold magnitude as long as the catalog is complete, but depend strongly on the temporal ordering of events, rather than the geometry of the spatial epicenter distribution. Nevertheless, the spatial distance and waiting time between subsequent earthquakes are uncorrelated with each other. These observations contradict the theory of aftershock zone scaling with main shock magnitude…
The ETAS model is widely employed to model the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes, generally using spatially invariant parameters. We propose an efficient method for the estimation of spatially varying parameters, using the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm and spatial Voronoi tessellation ensembles. We use the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to rank inverted models given their likelihood and complexity and select the best models to finally compute an ensemble model at any location. Using a synthetic catalog, we also check that the proposed method correctly inverts the know…
We report an empirical determination of the probability density functions P(r) of the number r of earthquakes in finite space-time windows for the California catalog, over fixed spatial boxes 5 x 5 km^2 and time intervals dt =1, 10, 100 and 1000 days. We find a stable power law tail P(r) ~ 1/r^{1+mu} with exponent mu \approx 1.6 for all time intervals. These observations are explained by a simple stochastic branching process previously studied by many authors, the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) model which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes (``aftershocks''). …
