西欧变暖速度比预期快得多
Western Europe is warming much faster than expected
摘要：
过去几十年的变暖趋势现在如此强烈，以至于在当地温度观测中可以看出。这就有可能将这一趋势与综合气候模式预测的变暖情况进行比较，因为信噪比太低，到目前为止，还不能直接用局部尺度的观测结果加以验证。在西欧观测到的温度趋势在过去几十年中似乎比最先进的大气环流模型模拟的要强得多。由于随机波动，无论是在快速天气过程中还是在十年气候波动中，这种差异都是非常不可能的。在冬季和春季，大气环流的变化很重要;在春季和夏季，土壤湿度和云量的变化很重要。对北大西洋流的错误描述影响了沿岸的趋势。其中许多进程继续影响21世纪的预测趋势。这意味着对西欧的气候预测可能低估了人为气候变化的影响。
英文摘要：
The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up to now could not be verified directly to observations on a local scale, because the signal-to-noise ratio was too low. The observed temperature trend in western Europe over the last decades appears much stronger than simulated by state-of-the-art GCMs. The difference is very unlikely due to random fluctuations, either in fast weather processes or in decadal climate fluctuations. In winter and spring, changes in atmospheric circulation are important; in spring and summer changes in soil moisture and cloud cover. A misrepresentation of the North Atlantic Current affects trends along the coast. Many of these processes continue to affect trends in projections for the 21st century. This implies that climate predictions for western Europe probably underestimate the effects of anthropogenic climate change.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
