We study the inter-stock correlations for the largest companies listed on Warsaw Stock Exchange and included in the WIG20 index. Our results from the correlation matrix analysis indicate that the Polish stock market can be well described by a one factor model. We also show that the stock-stock correlations tend to increase with the time scale of returns and they approach a saturation level for the time scales of at least 200 min, i.e. an order of magnitude longer than in the case of some developed markets. We also show that the strength of correlations among the stocks crucially depends on their capitalization. These results combined with our earlier findings together suggest that now the Polish stock market situates itself somewhere between an emerging market phase and a mature market phase.
In this paper we analyse the structure of Warsaw's stock market using complex systems methodology together with network science and information theory. We find minimal spanning trees for log returns on Warsaw's stock exchange for yearly times series between 2000 and 2013. For each stock in those trees we calculate its Markov centrality measure to estimate its importance in the network. We also estimate entropy rate for each of those time series using Lempel-Ziv algorithm based estimator to study the predictability of those price changes. The division of the studied stocks into 26 sectors allow…
We analyse the dynamics of the Warsaw Stock Exchange index WIG at a daily time horizon before and after its well defined local maxima of the cusp-like shape decorated with oscillations. The rising and falling paths of the index peaks can be described by the Mittag-Leffler function superposed with various types of oscillations. The latter is a solution of our model of index dynamics defined by the nonhomogeneous fractional relaxation equation. This solution is a generalised analog of an exactly solvable model of viscoelastic materials. We found that the Warsaw Stock Exchange can be considered a…
A time series that represents daily values of the WIG index (the main index of Warsaw Stock Exchange) over last 5 years is examined. Non-Gaussian features of distributions of fluctuations, namely returns, over a time scale are considered. Some general properties like exponents of the long range correlation estimated by averaged volatility and detrended fluctuations analysis (DFA) as well as exponents describing a decay of tails of the cumulative distributions are found. Closing, the Zipf analysis for the WIG index time series translated into three letter text is presented.
We investigate the local fractal properties of the financial time series based on the evolution of the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG) connected with the largest developing financial market in Europe. Calculating the local Hurst exponent for the WIG time series we find an interesting dependence between the behavior of the local fractal properties of the WIG time series and the crashes appearance on the financial market.
There is more and more empirical evidence that multifractality constitutes another and perhaps the most significant financial stylized fact. A realistic model of the financial dynamics should therefore incorporate this effect. The most promising in this respect is the Multifractal Model of Asset Returns (MMAR) introduced by Mandelbrot in which multifractality is carried by time deformation. In our study we focus on the Lux extension to MMAR and empirical data from Warsaw Stock Exchange. We show that this model is able to reproduce relevant aspects of the real stock market dynamics.
We present an original and novel method based on random matrix approach that enables to distinguish the respective role of temporal autocorrelations inside given time series and cross correlations between various time series. The proposed algorithm is based on properties of Wigner eigenspectrum of random matrices instead of commonly used Wishart eigenspectrum methodology. The proposed approach is then qualitatively and quantitatively applied to financial data in stocks building WIG (Warsaw Stock Exchange Index).
We analyze the constituents stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA30) and the Standard & Poor's 100 index (S&P100) of the NYSE stock exchange market. Surprisingly, we discover the data collapse of the histograms of the DJIA30 price fluctuations and of the S&P100 price fluctuations to the universal non-parametric Bramwell-Holdsworth-Pinton (BHP) distribution. Since the BHP probability density function appears in several other dissimilar phenomena, our result reveals an universal feature of the stock exchange market.
We review some methods recently used in the literature to detect the existence of a certain degree of common behavior of stock returns belonging to the same economic sector. Specifically, we discuss methods based on random matrix theory and hierarchical clustering techniques. We apply these methods to a set of stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange. The investigated time series are recorded at a daily time horizon. All the considered methods are able to detect economic information and the presence of clusters characterized by the economic sector of stocks. However, different methodologie…
We find numerical and empirical evidence for dynamical, structural and topological phase transitions on the (German) Frankfurt Stock Exchange (FSE) in the temporal vicinity of the worldwide financial crash. Using the Minimal Spanning Tree (MST) technique, a particularly useful canonical tool of the graph theory, two transitions of the topology of a complex network representing FSE were found. First transition is from a hierarchical scale-free MST representing the stock market before the recent worldwide financial crash, to a superstar-like MST decorated by a scale-free hierarchy of trees repre…
In our previous studies we have investigated the structural complexity of time series describing stock returns on New York's and Warsaw's stock exchanges, by employing two estimators of Shannon's entropy rate based on Lempel-Ziv and Context Tree Weighting algorithms, which were originally used for data compression. Such structural complexity of the time series describing logarithmic stock returns can be used as a measure of the inherent (model-free) predictability of the underlying price formation processes, testing the Efficient-Market Hypothesis in practice. We have also correlated the estim…
Time changes of noise level at Warsaw Stock Market are analyzed using a recently developed method basing on properties of the coarse grained entropy. The condition of the minimal noise level is used to build an efficient portfolio. Our noise level approach seems to be a much better tool for risk estimations than standard volatility parameters. Implementation of a corresponding threshold investment strategy gives positive returns for historical data.
Using the correlation matrix formalism we study the temporal aspects of the Warsaw Stock Market evolution as represented by the WIG20 index. The high frequency (1 min) WIG20 recordings over the time period between January 2001 and October 2005 are used. The entries of the correlation matrix considered here connect different distinct periods of the stock market dynamics, like days or weeks. Such a methodology allows to decompose the price fluctuations into the orthogonal eigensignals that quantify different modes of the underlying dynamics. The magnitudes of the corresponding eigenvalues reflec…
We use insight from a model of earth tectonic plate movement to obtain a new understanding of the build up and release of stress in the price dynamics of the worlds stock exchanges. Nonlinearity enters the model due to a behavioral attribute of humans reacting disproportionately to big changes. This nonlinear response allows us to classify price movements of a given stock index as either being generated due to specific economic news for the country in question, or by the ensemble of the worlds stock exchanges reacting together like a complex system. Similar in structure to the Capital Asset Pr…
This paper analyzes correlations in patterns of trading of different members of the London Stock Exchange. The collection of strategies associated with a member institution is defined by the sequence of signs of net volume traded by that institution in hour intervals. Using several methods we show that there are significant and persistent correlations between institutions. In addition, the correlations are structured into correlated and anti-correlated groups. Clustering techniques using the correlations as a distance metric reveal a meaningful clustering structure with two groups of instituti…
An original method, assuming potential and kinetic energy for prices and conservation of their sum is developed for forecasting exchanges. Connections with power law are shown. Semiempirical applications on S&P500, DJIA, and NASDAQ predict a coming recession in them. An emerging market, Istanbul Stock Exchange index ISE-100 is found involving a potential to continue to rise.
We analyze realized volatilities constructed using high-frequency stock data on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. In order to avoid non-trading hours issue in volatility calculations we define two realized volatilities calculated separately in the two trading sessions of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, i.e. morning and afternoon sessions. After calculating the realized volatilities at various sampling frequencies we evaluate the bias from the microstructure noise as a function of sampling frequency. Taking into account of the bias to realized volatility we examine returns standardized by realized volatiliti…
We scale and analyze the empirical data of return from New York and Vilnius stock exchanges matching it to the same nonlinear double stochastic model of return in financial market.
We investigate the average frequency of positive slope $ν_α^{+}$, crossing for the returns of market prices. The method is based on stochastic processes which no scaling feature is explicitly required. Using this method we define new quantity to quantify stage of development and activity of stocks exchange. We compare the Tehran and western stock markets and show that some stocks such as Tehran (TEPIX) and New Zealand (NZX) stocks exchange are emerge, and also TEPIX is a non-active market and financially motivated to absorb capital.
We compare some methods recently used in the literature to detect the existence of a certain degree of common behavior of stock returns belonging to the same economic sector. Specifically, we discuss methods based on random matrix theory and hierarchical clustering techniques. We apply these methods to a portfolio of stocks traded at the London Stock Exchange. The investigated time series are recorded both at a daily time horizon and at a 5-minute time horizon. The correlation coefficient matrix is very different at different time horizons confirming that more structured correlation coefficien…
In this paper we study BSE Index financial time series for fractal and multifractal behaviour. We show that Bombay stock Exchange (BSE)Index time series is mono-fractal and can be represented by a fractional Brownian motion.
Econophysics is a science in its infancy, born about ten years ago at this time of writing, at the crossing roads of physics, mathematics, computing and of course economics and finance. It also covers human sciences, because all economics is ultimately driven by human decision. From this human factor, econophysics has no hope to achieve the status of an exact science, but it is interesting to discover what can be achieved, discovering potential limits and trying try to push further away these limits. A few data analysis techniques are described with emphasis on the Detrended Fluctuation Analys…
We examine the correlation of the limit price with the order book, when a limit order comes. We analyzed the Rebuild Order Book of Stock Exchange Electronic Trading Service, which is the centralized order book market of London Stock Exchange. As a result, the limit price is broadly distributed around the best price according to a power-law, and it isn't randomly drawn from the distribution, but has a strong correlation with the size of cumulative unexecuted limit orders on the price. It was also found that the limit price, on the coarse-grained price scale, tends to gather around the price whi…
This paper proposes a method for ranking the investment attractiveness of exchange-traded stocks where investment risk is not related to the volatility indicator but instead is related to the indicator of compression of the time series of price changes. The article describes in detail the ranking algorithm, provides an example of ranking the shares of all companies included in the Dow Jones stock index. The paper additionally compares the results of ranking these stocks by volatility and compression and also shows the strengths of the second indicator, which is formed using the method of binar…
Our goal in this paper is to study and characterize the interdependency structure of the Mexican Stock Exchange (mainly stocks from BMV) in the period 2000-2019 and provide visualizations which in a one shot provide a big-picture panorama. To this end, we estimate correlation/concentration matrices from different models and then compute metrics from network theory including eigencentralities and network modularity
Scaling properties of the BUX index are similar to those observed in other parts of the world. The main difference is that the traditional quantities like volatility, growth and autocorrelation of returns follows more closely the assumptions of the traditional stock market theory developed by Bachelier and by Black and Scholes.
We calculate realized volatility of the Nikkei Stock Average (Nikkei225) Index on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and investigate the return dynamics. To avoid the bias on the realized volatility from the non-trading hours issue we calculate realized volatility separately in the two trading sessions, i.e. morning and afternoon, of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and find that the microstructure noise decreases the realized volatility at small sampling frequency. Using realized volatility as a proxy of the integrated volatility we standardize returns in the morning and afternoon sessions and investigate the …
Stock exchanges are considered major players in financial sectors of many countries. Most Stockbrokers, who execute stock trade, use technical, fundamental or time series analysis in trying to predict stock prices, so as to advise clients. However, these strategies do not usually guarantee good returns because they guide on trends and not the most likely price. It is therefore necessary to explore improved methods of prediction. The research proposes the use of Artificial Neural Network that is feedforward multi-layer perceptron with error backpropagation and develops a model of configuration …
Using the tools developed for statistical physics, we simultaneously analyze statistical properties of the Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange indices. In spite of the small number of data used in the analysis, the result shows the universal behavior of complex systems previously found in the leading stock indices. We also analyze their features before and after the financial crisis. We found that after the crisis both stocks do not show a same statistical behavior. The impact of currency controls is observed in the distribution of index returns.
Financial Times Series such as stock price and exchange rates are, often, non-linear and non-stationary. Use of decomposition models has been found to improve the accuracy of predictive models. The paper proposes a hybrid approach integrating the advantages of both decomposition model (namely, Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT)) and machine learning models (ANN and SVR) to predict the National Stock Exchange Fifty Index. In first phase, the data is decomposed into a smaller number of subseries using MODWT. In next phase, each subseries is predicted using machine learning models…
To investigate the universality of the structure of interactions in different markets, we analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of stock price fluctuations in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. We find that this emerging market exhibits strong correlations in the movement of stock prices compared to developed markets, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). This is shown to be due to the dominant influence of a common market mode on the stock prices. By comparison, interactions between related stocks, e.g., those belonging to the same business sector, are much weaker. This lack o…
We present four methods of assessing the diversification potential within a stock market, two of these are based on principal component analysis. They were applied to the Australian stock exchange for the years 2000 to 2014 and all show a consistent picture. The potential for diversification declined almost monotonically in the three years prior to the 2008 financial crisis. On one of the measures the diversification potential declined even further in the 2011 European debt crisis and the American credit downgrade.
How an investor invests in the market is largely influenced by the market efficiency because if a market is efficient, it is extremely difficult to make excessive returns because in an efficient market there will be no undervalued securities i.e. securities whose value is less than its assumed intrinsic value, which offer returns that are higher than the deserved expected returns, given their risk. However, there is a possibility of making excessive returns if the market is not efficient. This article analyses the five popular stock indices of BSE. This would not only test the efficiency of th…
We use high-frequency data of 1364 Chinese A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange to investigate the intraday patterns in the bid-ask spreads. The daily periodicity in the spread time series is confirmed by Lomb analysis and the intraday bid-ask spreads are found to exhibit $L$-shaped pattern with idiosyncratic fine structure. The intraday spread of individual stocks relaxes as a power law within the first hour of the continuous double auction from 9:30AM to 10:30AM with exponents $β_{\rm{SHSE}}=0.19\pm0.069$ for the Shanghai market and $β_{\rm{SZSE}}=…
The daily volume of transaction on the New York Stock Exchange and its day-to-day fluctuations are analysed with respect to power-law tails as well long-term trends. We also model the transition to a Gaussian distribution for longer time intervals, like months instead of days.
Stock market investment have been an ideal form of investment for many years. Investing capitals smartly in stock market yields high profit returns. But there are many companies available in a market. Currently there are more than $345$ active companies who have stocks in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). Analyzing all these companies is quite impossible. However, many companies tend to move together. This study aims at finding which companies in DSE have a close connection and move alongside each other. By analyzing this relation, the investors and traders will be able to analyze a lot of companies…
This paper investigates the degree of efficiency for the Moscow Stock Exchange. A market is called efficient if prices of its assets fully reflect all available information. We show that the degree of market efficiency is significantly low for most of the months from 2012 to 2021. We calculate the degree of market efficiency by (i) filtering out regularities in financial data and (ii) computing the Shannon entropy of the filtered return time series. We have developed a simple method for estimating volatility and price staleness in empirical data, in order to filter out such regularity patterns…
We use the correlation matrix of stocks returns in order to create maps of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (BM&F-Bovespa), Brazil's main stock exchange. The data reffer to the year 2010, and the correlations between stock returns lead to the construction of a minimum spanning tree and of asset graphs with a variety of threshold values. The results are analised using techniques of network theory.
We present some stylized facts exhibited by the time series of returns of the Mexican Stock Exchange Index (IPC) and compare them to a sample of both developed (USA, UK and Japan) and emerging markets (Brazil and India). The period of study is 1997-2011. The stylized facts are related mostly to the probability distribution func- tion and the autocorrelation function (e.g. fat tails, non-normality, volatility cluster- ing, among others). We find that positive skewness for returns in Mexico and Brazil, but not in the rest, suggest investment opportunities. Evidence of nonlinearity is also docume…
We report statistical regularities of the opening and closing auctions of French equities, focusing on the diffusive properties of the indicative auction price. Two mechanisms are at play as the auction end time nears: the typical price change magnitude decreases, favoring underdiffusion, while the rate of these events increases, potentially leading to overdiffusion. A third mechanism, caused by the strategic behavior of traders, is needed to produce nearly diffusive prices: waiting to submit buy orders until sell orders have decreased the indicative price and vice-versa.
This paper is trying to unveil general statistical characteristic of financial; time series data that is subjected to several financial time series data present in Indonesia, e.g. individual index such as stock price of PT. TELKOM, stock price of PT HM SAMPOERNA, and compiled stock price index (Jakarta Stock Exchange Index). Characteristics that we try to analyze are volatility clustering, truncated Levy distribution, and multifractality feature. This analysis is directed for further works of research in making Indonesian artificial stock exchange that gives representation of micro structure o…
The nature of fluctuations in the Indian financial market is analyzed in this paper. We have looked at the price returns of individual stocks, with tick-by-tick data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and daily closing price data from both NSE and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), the two largest exchanges in India. We find that the price returns in Indian markets follow a fat-tailed cumulative distribution, consistent with a power law having exponent $α\sim 3$, similar to that observed in developed markets. However, the distributions of trading volume and the number of trades have a differ…
We study the various sectors of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) for a period of eight years from January 2006 to March 2014. Using the data of the daily returns of a period of eight years we investigate the financial cross correlation co-efficients among the sectors of BSE and Price by Earning (PE) ratio of BSE Sensex. We show that the behavior of these quantities during normal periods and during crisis is very different. We show that the PE ratio shows a particular distinctive trend in the approach to a crash of the financial market and can therefore be used as an indicator of an impending ca…
The total value of domestic market capitalization of the Mexican Stock Exchange was calculated at 520 billion of dollars by the end of November 2013. To manage this system and make optimum capital investments, its dynamics needs to be predicted. However, randomness within the stock indexes makes forecasting a difficult task. To address this issue, in this work, trends and fractality were studied using GNU-R over the opening and closing prices indexes over the past 23 years. Returns, Kernel density estimation, autocorrelation function and R/S analysis and the Hurst exponent were used in this re…
This paper examines the validity of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) on the Ugandan stock market using monthly stock returns from 10 of the 11 companies listed on the Uganda Stock Exchange (USE), for the period 1st March 2007 to 10th November 2009. Due to the absence of readily available Uganda Stock Exchange(USE) data, and the placement of daily price lists in pdf only, on the USE website: http://www.use.or.ug, the article also discusses the procedures taken to mine the data needed. The securities were all put in one portfolio in order to diversify away the firm-specific part of returns…
COVID-19 has impacted the economy of almost every country in the world. Of particular interest are the responses of the economic indicators of developing nations (such as BRICS) to the COVID-19 shock. As an extension to our earlier work on the dynamic associations of pandemic growth, exchange rate, and stock market indices in the context of India, we look at the same question with respect to the BRICS nations. We use structural variable autoregression (SVAR) to identify the dynamic underlying associations across the normalized growth measurements of the COVID-19 cumulative case, recovery, and …
Although technical trading rules have been widely used by practitioners in financial markets, their profitability still remains controversial. We here investigate the profitability of moving average (MA) and trading range break (TRB) rules by using the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCI) from May 21, 1992 through December 31, 2013 and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index (SZCI) from April 3, 1991 through December 31, 2013. The $t$-test is adopted to check whether the mean returns which are conditioned on the trading signals are significantly different from unconditioned returns a…
This paper aims to develop new techniques to describe joint behavior of stocks, beyond regression and correlation. For example, we want to identify the clusters of the stocks that move together. Our work is based on applying Kernel Principal Component Analysis(KPCA) and Functional Principal Component Analysis(FPCA) to high frequency data from NSE. Since we dealt with high frequency data with a tick size of 30 seconds, FPCA seems to be an ideal choice. FPCA is a functional variant of PCA where each sample point is considered to be a function in Hilbert space L^2. On the other hand, KPCA is an e…
As described in this paper, we study market-wide price co-movements around crashes by analyzing a dataset of high-frequency stock returns of the constituent issues of Nikkei 225 Index listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange for the three years during 2007--2009. Results of day-to-day principal component analysis of the time series sampled at the 1 min time interval during the continuous auction of the daytime reveal the long range up to a couple of months significant auto-correlation of the maximum eigenvalue of the correlation matrix, which express the intensity of market-wide co-movement of stock…
In this chapter we studied the nonlinear co-movements between the Mexican Crude Oil price, the Mexican Stock Market Index and the USD/MXN Exchange Rate, for the sample period from 1994 to date. We used a battery of nonlinear tests, cf. (Patterson & Ashley, 2000) and one multivariate test, in order to determine the dynamic co-movement exerted from the oil prices to the stock and exchange rate markets. Such co-movement and time windows are exposed using the Brooks & Hinich (1999) cross- bicorrelation statistical test. The effects of oil spills on other markets have been studied from different an…
The multifractal behavior for tick data of prices is investigated in Korean financial market. Using the rescaled range analysis(R/S analysis), we show the multifractal nature of returns for the won-dollar exchange rate and the KOSPI. We also estimate the Hurst exponent and the generalized $q$th-order Hurst exponent in the unversal multifractal framework. Particularly, our financial market is a persistent process with long-run memory effects, and the statistical value of the Hurst exponents occurs the crossovers at charateristic time scales. It is found that the probability distribution of retu…
This paper presents a statistical analysis of Tehran Price Index (TePIx) for the period of 1992 to 2004. The results present asymmetric property of the return distribution which tends to the right hand of the mean. Also the return distribution can be fitted by a stable Levy distribution and the tails are very fatter than the gaussian distribution. We estimate the tail index of the TePIx returns with two different methods and the results are consistent with the previous studies on the stock markets. A strong autocorrelation has been detected in the TePIx time series representing a long memory o…
We demonstrate that the tail dependence should always be taken into account as a proxy for systematic risk of loss for investments. We provide the clear statistical evidence of that the structure of investment portfolios on a regulated market should be adjusted to the price of gold. Our finding suggests that the active bartering of oil for goods would prevent collapsing the national market facing international sanctions.
The herd behaviors of returns for the won-dollar exchange rate and the KOSPI are analyzed in Korean financial markets. It is shown that the probability distribution $P(R)$ of price returns $R$ for three values of the herding parameter tends to a power-law behavior $P(R) \simeq R^{-β}$ with the exponents $ β=2.2$(the won-dollar exchange rate) and 2.4(the KOSPI). The financial crashes are found to occur at $h >2.33$ when the relative increase in the probability distribution of exteremely high price returns is observed. Especially, the distribution of normalized returns shows a crossover to a Gau…
In this paper, we investigate the impact of the social media data in predicting the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) variables for the first time. We consider the closing price and daily return of three different stocks for this investigation. We collected our social media data from Sahamyab.com/stocktwits for about three months. To extract information from online comments, we propose a hybrid sentiment analysis approach that combines lexicon-based and learning-based methods. Since lexicons that are available for the Persian language are not practical for sentiment analysis in the stock market doma…
We analyse the temporal changes in the cross correlations of returns on the New York Stock Exchange. We show that lead-lag relationships between daily returns of stocks vanished in less than twenty years. We have found that even for high frequency data the asymmetry of time dependent cross-correlation functions has a decreasing tendency, the position of their peaks are shifted towards the origin while these peaks become sharper and higher, resulting in a diminution of the Epps effect. All these findings indicate that the market becomes increasingly efficient.
We investigate the correlation properties of transaction data from the New York Stock Exchange. The trading activity f(t) of each stock displays a crossover from weaker to stronger correlations at time scales 60-390 minutes. In both regimes, the Hurst exponent H depends logarithmically on the liquidity of the stock, measured by the mean traded value per minute. All multiscaling exponents tau(q) display a similar liquidity dependence, which clearly indicates the lack of a universal form assumed by other studies. The origin of this behavior is both the long memory in the frequency and the size o…
Modelling financial time series as a time change of a simpler process has been proposed in various forms over the years. One of such recent approaches is called volatility homogenisation decomposition, and has been designed specifically to aid the forecasting of price changes on financial markets. The authors of this method have attempted to prove the its usefulness by applying a specific forecasting procedure and determining the effectiveness of this procedure on the decomposed time series, as compared with the original time series. This is problematic in at least two ways. First, the choice …
This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of time series segmentation on the Japanese stock prices listed on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange during the period from 4 January 2000 to 30 January 2012. A recursive segmentation procedure is used under the assumption of a Gaussian mixture. The daily number of each quintile of volatilities for all the segments is investigated empirically. It is found that from June 2004 to June 2007, a large majority of stocks are stable and that from 2008 several stocks showed instability. On March 2011, the daily number of instable securities stee…
