A mutator is an allele that increases the mutation rate throughout the genome by disrupting some aspect of DNA replication or repair. Mutators that increase the mutation rate by the order of 100 fold have been observed to spontaneously emerge and achieve high frequencies in natural populations and in long-term laboratory evolution experiments with \textit{E. coli}. In principle, the fixation of mutator alleles is limited by (i) competition with mutations in wild-type backgrounds, (ii) additional deleterious mutational load, and (iii) random genetic drift. Using a multiple locus model and employing both simulation and analytic methods, we investigate the effects of these three factors on the fixation probability $P_{fix}$ of an initially rare mutator as a function of population size $N$, beneficial and deleterious mutation rates, and the strength of mutations $s$. Our diffusion based approximation for $P_{fix}$ successfully captures effects (ii) and (iii) when selection is fast compared to mutation ($μ/s \ll 1$). This enables us to predict the conditions under which mutators will be evolutionarily favored. Surprisingly, our simulations show that effect (i) is typically small for strong-effect mutators. Our results agree semi-quantitatively with existing laboratory evolution experiments and suggest future experimental directions.
In an adapted population of mutators in which most mutations are deleterious, a nonmutator that lowers the mutation rate is under indirect selection and can sweep to fixation. Using a multitype branching process, we calculate the fixation probability of a rare nonmutator in a large population of asexual mutators. We show that when beneficial mutations are absent, the fixation probability is a nonmonotonic function of the mutation rate of the mutator: it first increases sublinearly and then decreases exponentially. We also find that beneficial mutations can enhance the fixation probability of a…
The mutation rate of a well adapted population is prone to reduction so as to have a lower mutational load. We aim to understand the role of epistatic interactions between the fitness affecting mutations in this process. Using a multitype branching process, the fixation probability of a single non-mutator emerging in a large asexual mutator population is analytically calculated here. The mutator population undergoes deleterious mutations at constant, but at a much higher rate than that of the non-mutator. We find that antagonistic epistasis lowers the chances of mutation rate reduction, while …
We study the evolutionary dynamics of an asexual population of nonmutators and mutators on a class of epistatic fitness landscapes. We consider the situation in which all mutations are deleterious and mutators are produced from nonmutators continually at a constant rate. We find that in an infinitely large population, a minimum nonmutator-to-mutator conversion rate is required to fix the mutators but an arbitrarily small conversion rate results in the fixation of mutators in a finite population. We calculate analytical expressions for the mutator fraction at mutation-selection balance and fixa…
Although mutations drive the evolutionary process, the rates at which the mutations occur are themselves subject to evolutionary forces. Our purpose here is to understand the role of selection and random genetic drift in the evolution of mutation rates, and we address this question in asexual populations at mutation-selection equilibrium neglecting selective sweeps. Using a multitype branching process, we calculate the fixation probability of a rare nonmutator in a large asexual population of mutators, and find that a nonmutator is more likely to fix when the deleterious mutation rate of the m…
Linked beneficial and deleterious mutations are known to decrease the fixation probability of a favorable mutation in large asexual populations. While the hindering effect of strongly deleterious mutations on adaptive evolution has been well studied, how weak deleterious mutations, either in isolation or with superior beneficial mutations, influence the fixation of a beneficial mutation has not been fully explored. Here, using a multitype branching process, we obtain an accurate analytical expression for the fixation probability when deleterious effects are weak, and exploit this result along …
When beneficial mutations are relatively common, competition between multiple unfixed mutations can reduce the rate of fixation in well-mixed asexual populations. We introduce a one dimensional model with a steady accumulation of beneficial mutations. We find a transition between periodic selection and multiple-mutation regimes. In the multiple-mutation regime, the increase of fitness along the lattice bears a striking similarity to surface growth phenomena, with power law growth and saturation of the interface width. We also find significant differences compared to the well-mixed model. In ou…
The adaptive evolution of large asexual populations is generally characterized by competition between clones carrying different beneficial mutations. This interference phenomenon slows down the adaptation speed and makes the theoretical description of the dynamics more complex with respect to the successional occurrence and fixation of beneficial mutations typical of small populations. A simplified modeling framework considering multiple beneficial mutations with equal and constant fitness advantage captures some of the essential features of the actual complex dynamics, and some key prediction…
The accumulation of beneficial mutations on many competing genetic backgrounds in rapidly adapting populations has a striking impact on evolutionary dynamics. This effect, known as clonal interference, causes erratic fluctuations in the frequencies of observed mutations, randomizes the fixation times of successful mutations, and leaves distinct signatures on patterns of genetic variation. Here, we show how this form of `genetic draft' affects the forward-time dynamics of site frequencies in rapidly adapting asexual populations. We calculate the probability that mutations at individual sites sh…
How fast does a population evolve from one fitness peak to another? We study the dynamics of evolving, asexually reproducing populations in which a certain number of mutations jointly confer a fitness advantage. We consider the time until a population has evolved from one fitness peak to another one with a higher fitness. The order of mutations can either be fixed or random. If the order of mutations is fixed, then the population follows a metaphorical ridge, a single path. If the order of mutations is arbitrary, then there are many ways to evolve to the higher fitness state. We address the ti…
In unicellular organisms such as bacteria and in most viruses, mutations mainly occur during reproduction. Thus, genotypes with a high birth rate should have a higher mutation rate. However, standard models of asexual adaptation such as the 'replicator-mutator equation' often neglect this effect. In this study, we investigate the emergence of a positive dependence between the birth rate and the mutation rate in models of asexual adaptation and the consequences of this dependence. We show that it emerges naturally at the population scale, based on a large population limit of a stochastic timeco…
We define a general class of models representing natural selection between two alleles. The population size and spatial structure are arbitrary, but fixed. Genetics can be haploid, diploid, or otherwise; reproduction can be asexual or sexual. Biological events (e.g.~births, deaths, mating, dispersal) depend in arbitrary fashion on the current population state. Our formalism is based on the idea of genetic sites. Each genetic site resides at a particular locus and houses a single allele. Each individual contains a number of sites equal to its ploidy (one for haploids, two for diploids, etc.). S…
We consider a model for Darwinian evolution in an asexual population with a large but non-constant populations size characterized by a natural birth rate, a logistic death rate modelling competition and a probability of mutation at each birth event. In the present paper, we study the long-term behavior of the system in the limit of large population $(K\to \infty)$ size, rare mutations $(u\to 0)$, and small mutational effects $(σ\to 0)$, proving convergence to the canonical equation of adaptive dynamics (CEAD). In contrast to earlier works, e.g. by Champagnat and Méléard, we take the three limi…
