Do Time Series Foundation Model Benchmarks Hide Regime-Dependent Failures? Evidence from Traffic Speed Forecasting
时间序列基础模型基准是否隐藏了依赖于状态的失败?来自交通速度预测的证据
机构 * University of California, Berkeley(加州大学伯克利分校) ; Duke University(杜克大学) ; National University of Singapore(新加坡国立大学) ; Northeastern University(东北大学) ; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign(伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校) ; Southern Methodist University(南卫理公会大学)
专题命中 评测与基准 :foundation model(title,abstract);分类 cs.LG
AI总结 本文提出状态分层评估方法,发现时间序列基础模型在交通状态转换时准确率和预测区间覆盖率显著下降,并提出了双峰混合增强方法以改善转换状态覆盖。
Comments 5 pages, 2 figures. Accepted at the Workshop on Forecasting as a New Frontier of Intelligence, ICML 2026