自下而上层级组织中领导的稳定性
Stability of leadership in bottom-up hierarchical organizations
摘要：
在自下而上的等级组织中，研究了领导层在内部反对力量不断增长的情况下的稳定性。使用一个非常简单的模型与自下而上的多数规则投票，在不同层次的权力分配的动态计算的概率框架内。在高层领导的情况下，来自底层的反对派的权重在向上爬的过程中会迅速下降。它只经过几个层次就达到零。事实上，投票过程被发现服从一个阈值动态与确定性的顶部结果。因此，领导层可能会保持稳定，以应对底层反对派的大幅增长。因此，反对党可以从百分之几稳步增长到百分之七十七，而在选举产生的最高级别没有一个单一的变化。然而，与此相反，从一次选举到另一次选举，在门槛附近，底层不到1%的额外变化可以推动高层的剧烈和残酷的变化。反对派立即推翻了现任领导人。除了解析公式，从一个大规模的模拟结果。这些结果可能会对管理体系结构和警报系统产生新的影响。他们也可以提供一些不同的见解上世纪东欧共产主义崩溃。
英文摘要：
The stability of a leadership against a growing internal opposition is studied in bottom-up hierarchical organizations. Using a very simple model with bottom-up majority rule voting, the dynamics of power distribution at the various hierarchical levels is calculated within a probabilistic framework. Given a leadership at the top, the opposition weight from the hierarchy bottom is shown to fall off quickly while climbing up the hierarchy. It reaches zero after only a few hierarchical levels. Indeed the voting process is found to obey a threshold dynamics with a deterministic top outcome. Accordingly the leadership may stay stable against very large amplitude increases in the opposition at the bottom level. An opposition can thus grow steadily from few percent up to seventy seven percent with not one a single change at the elected top level. However and in contrast, from one election to another, in the vicinity of the threshold, less than a one percent additional shift at the bottom level can drive a drastic and brutal change at the top. The opposition topples the current leadership at once. In addition to analytical formulas, results from a large scale simulation are presented. The results may shed a new light on management architectures as well as on alert systems. They could also provide some different insight on last century's Eastern European communist collapse.
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