布朗对策中的控制错觉
Illusion of Control in a Brownian Game
摘要:
单玩家Parrondo游戏(SPPG)和多玩家Parrondo游戏(MPPG)都显示Parrondo效应(PE),其中两个或多个单独公平(或Llosing)的游戏如果定期或随机交替,则会产生净获胜结果。(PE有一个更正式、限制性更小的定义。)我们说明,当受到一个基本的优化规则,PG显示退化,而不是增强回报。当低熵策略(即使用更多信息的策略)的表现低于随机策略(具有最大熵)时,优化只提供了控制的错觉。不幸的是,这种错觉在人类管理或预测复杂系统的许多尝试中普遍存在。对于PG来说,这种错觉尤其引人注目,因为优化规则逆转了一个已经看似矛盾的正增益--Parrondo效应本身--并将其变为负。虽然这种现象以前已经在MPPG(L。迪尼奥斯和J.M.R. Parrondo。《欧洲物理学快报》63,319(2003年); J.M.R. Parrondo et al. Advances in Condensed Matter and统计力学,eds. E. Korutcheva和R. Cuerno,Nova Science Publishers,2003),我们在历史依赖性SPPG的自然环境中证明了这一点。
英文摘要:
Both single-player Parrondo games (SPPG) and multi-player Parrondo games (MPPG) display the Parrondo Effect (PE) wherein two or more individually fair (or Llosing) games yield a net winning outcome if alternated periodically or randomly. (There is a more formal, less restrictive definition of the PE.) We illustrate that, when subject to an elementary optimization rule, the PG displays degraded rather than enhanced returns. Optimization provides only the illusion of control, when low-entropy strategies (i.e. which use more information) under-perform random strategies (with maximal entropy). This illusion is unfortuntately widespread in many human attempts to manage or predict complex systems. For the PG, the illusion is especially striking in that the optimization rule reverses an already paradoxical-seeming positive gain - the Parrondo effect proper - and turns it negative. While this phenomenon has been previously demonstrated using somewhat artificial conditions in the MPPG (L. Dinios and J.M.R. Parrondo. Europhysics Letters 63, 319 (2003); J.M.R. Parrondo et al. Advances in Condensed Matter and Statistical Mechanics, eds. E. Korutcheva and R. Cuerno, Nova Science Publishers, 2003), we demonstrate it in the natural setting of a history-dependent SPPG.
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