群体性灾难的动态性：一项实证研究
The Dynamics of Crowd Disasters: An Empirical Study
摘要：
行人群体动力学的许多观测，包括各种自组织现象，已经成功地描述了简单的多粒子模型。然而，由于伦理原因，关于人群恐慌的实验数据严重缺乏。因此，我们分析了2006年1月12日在麦加朝觐期间的人群灾难的录像。他们揭示了两个随后的，突然的转变，从层流到走走停停和“顺从”的流动，这对许多以前的模拟模型提出了质疑。而层流到走走停停流的转变支持了最近的瓶颈流模型[D。Helbing等人，物理修订信函97，168001（2006）]，随后向湍流的转变尚未被很好地理解。它是造成与地震相当的压力释放突然爆发的原因，这会导致突然的位移以及人们的摔倒和踩踏。这项研究的见解的原因，关键人群条件是重要的组织更安全的群众活动。特别是，它们使人们能够了解人群事故往往在何时何地发生。他们还导致了组织上的变化，确保了回历1427年朝觐的安全。
英文摘要：
Many observations in the dynamics of pedestrian crowds, including various self-organization phenomena, have been successfully described by simple many-particle models. For ethical reasons, however, there is a serious lack of experimental data regarding crowd panic. Therefore, we have analyzed video recordings of the crowd disaster in Mina/Makkah during the Hajj in 1426H on January 12, 2006. They reveal two subsequent, sudden transitions from laminar to stop-and-go and ``turbulent'' flows, which question many previous simulation models. While the transition from laminar to stop-and-go flows supports a recent model of bottleneck flows [D. Helbing et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 97, 168001 (2006)], the subsequent transition to turbulent flow is not yet well understood. It is responsible for sudden eruptions of pressure release comparable to earthquakes, which cause sudden displacements and the falling and trampling of people. The insights of this study into the reasons for critical crowd conditions are important for the organization of safer mass events. In particularly, they allow one to understand where and when crowd accidents tend to occur. They have also led to organizational changes, which have ensured a safe Hajj in 1427H.
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