从人群动态到人群安全：基于视频的分析
From Crowd Dynamics to Crowd Safety: A Video-Based Analysis
摘要：
人群动力学的研究是有趣的，因为许多行人的相互作用产生的各种自组织现象，这可能会改善或阻碍他们的流动。除了在中等密度下形成均匀步行方向的车道和瓶颈处的振荡外，最近发现停走波[D。Helbing等人，物理修订版信函97，168001（2006）]和一个现象称为“人群湍流”，可以发生在高行人密度[D. Helbing等人，E 75，046109（2007）]。虽然极端条件下行人的行为对群体性事件的进出和紧急疏散的安全具有决定性意义，但目前还缺乏对极端拥挤的实证研究。因此，本文讨论了如何可以研究高密度条件下，根据适当的视频数据。这是说明在朝圣者流进入前贾马拉桥在米纳，5公里的麦加，沙特阿拉伯的神圣清真寺的例子。我们的研究结果揭示了以前意想不到的斑图形成现象，并表明，平均个人速度不去为零，即使在10人每平方米的局部密度。由于最大密度和流量与其他国家的测量结果不同，这对群众活动设施的容量评估和规模确定具有影响。当情况变得拥挤时，流量显著下降，这可能导致走走停停的波浪和密度的进一步增加，直到达到临界人群条件。然后，“人群动荡”开始，这可能引发人群灾难。
英文摘要：
The study of crowd dynamics is interesting because of the various self-organization phenomena resulting from the interactions of many pedestrians, which may improve or obstruct their flow. Besides formation of lanes of uniform walking direction and oscillations at bottlenecks at moderate densities, it was recently discovered that stop-and-go waves [D. Helbing et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 97, 168001 (2006)] and a phenomenon called "crowd turbulence" can occur at high pedestrian densities [D. Helbing et al., Phys. Rev. E 75, 046109 (2007)]. Although the behavior of pedestrian crowds under extreme conditions is decisive for the safety of crowds during the access to or egress from mass events as well as for situations of emergency evacuation, there is still a lack of empirical studies of extreme crowding. Therefore, this paper discusses how one may study high-density conditions based on suitable video data. This is illustrated at the example of pilgrim flows entering the previous Jamarat Bridge in Mina, 5 kilometers from the Holy Mosque in Makkah, Saudi-Arabia. Our results reveal previously unexpected pattern formation phenomena and show that the average individual speed does not go to zero even at local densities of 10 persons per square meter. Since the maximum density and flow are different from measurements in other countries, this has implications for the capacity assessment and dimensioning of facilities for mass events. When conditions become congested, the flow drops significantly, which can cause stop-and-go waves and a further increase of the density until critical crowd conditions are reached. Then, "crowd turbulence" sets in, which may trigger crowd disasters.
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