适应性主体复杂系统的可预测性、风险和在线管理
Predictability, Risk and Online Management in a Complex System of Adaptive Agents
摘要：
我们讨论的可行性预测，管理和随后操纵，未来的演变复杂的适应系统。我们的原型系统模仿了一群自适应的、相互作用的对象，比如那些出现在人类健康和生物学领域（如细胞）、金融市场（如交易员）和机械系统（如机器人）的对象。我们表明，短期预测产生走廊沿模型系统将以高概率，演变。我们展示了这些走廊的宽度和平均方向如何随着系统通过增强的可预测性和/或风险的区域或口袋而随时间变化。然后，我们展示了如何少量的“人口工程”可以进行，以引导系统远离任何不希望的制度，已被预测。尽管系统的许多自由度和固有的随机性，这种动态的，“软”控制未来的风险只需要最少的知识组成的多智能体人口的基本组成。
英文摘要：
We discuss the feasibility of predicting, managing and subsequently manipulating, the future evolution of a Complex Adaptive System. Our archetypal system mimics a population of adaptive, interacting objects, such as those arising in the domains of human health and biology (e.g. cells), financial markets (e.g. traders), and mechanical systems (e.g. robots). We show that short-term prediction yields corridors along which the model system will, with high probability, evolve. We show how the widths and average direction of these corridors varies in time as the system passes through regions, or pockets, of enhanced predictability and/or risk. We then show how small amounts of 'population engineering' can be undertaken in order to steer the system away from any undesired regimes which have been predicted. Despite the system's many degrees of freedom and inherent stochasticity, this dynamical, 'soft' control over future risk requires only minimal knowledge about the underlying composition of the constituent multi-agent population.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
