社会过程的预测分析II：可预测性与预警分析
Predictive Analysis for Social Processes II: Predictability and Warning Analysis
摘要：
这篇由两部分组成的论文提出了一种新的社会过程预测分析方法。第一部分确定了一类社会过程，称为正外部性过程，这是既重要又难以预测，并介绍了这些系统的多尺度，随机混合系统建模框架。在本文的第二部分中，我们开发了一个系统理论为基础的，计算易处理的方法来预测这些系统的分析。除其他功能外，这种分析方法能够评估过程的可预测性，识别具有预测能力的可测量值，发现感兴趣事件的可靠早期指标，以及稳健的可扩展预测。所提出的方法的潜力是通过案例研究，涉及在线市场，社会运动和抗议行为。
英文摘要：
This two-part paper presents a new approach to predictive analysis for social processes. Part I identifies a class of social processes, called positive externality processes, which are both important and difficult to predict, and introduces a multi-scale, stochastic hybrid system modeling framework for these systems. In Part II of the paper we develop a systems theory-based, computationally tractable approach to predictive analysis for these systems. Among other capabilities, this analytic methodology enables assessment of process predictability, identification of measurables which have predictive power, discovery of reliable early indicators for events of interest, and robust, scalable prediction. The potential of the proposed approach is illustrated through case studies involving online markets, social movements, and protest behavior.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
