持续不断的战争和恐怖主义背后的普遍模式
Universal patterns underlying ongoing wars and terrorism
摘要:
我们报告,在三场引人注目的持续战争中产生的暴力模式和全球恐怖主义具有显著的普遍性。我们的研究结果表明,这些完全不同的冲突领域目前具有一种共同的敌人,即各种叛乱部队开始以类似的方式运作,无论其潜在的意识形态,动机和地形,他们的运作。我们提供了一个微观理论来解释我们的主要观察。这一理论将叛乱力量视为一个通用的自组织系统,通过其组成群体的不断合并和分裂而动态演变。
英文摘要:
We report a remarkable universality in the patterns of violence arising in three high-profile ongoing wars, and in global terrorism. Our results suggest that these quite different conflict arenas currently feature a common type of enemy, i.e. the various insurgent forces are beginning to operate in a similar way regardless of their underlying ideologies, motivations and the terrain in which they operate. We provide a microscopic theory to explain our main observations. This theory treats the insurgent force as a generic, self-organizing system which is dynamically evolving through the continual coalescence and fragmentation of its constituent groups.
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