从旧战争到新战争和全球恐怖主义
From old wars to new wars and global terrorism
摘要：
甚至在9/11之前，就有人声称战争的性质已经发生了根本性的变化。9/11恐怖袭击使人们迫切需要了解当代战争及其与旧的常规战争和恐怖主义战争的关系，这两种战争都表现出显着的不确定性。1816-1980年“旧战争”中死亡人数的频率-强度分布呈指数为1.80的幂律分布。1968年至今的全球恐怖袭击也遵循幂律，七国集团国家的指数为1.71，非七国集团国家为2.5。在这里，我们分析了两个正在进行的，高调的战争在地球的两端-哥伦比亚和伊拉克。我们的分析使用了我们自己独特的哥伦比亚伤亡数据集，以及在伊拉克被杀平民的公开数据。我们在每一场战争中都展示了幂律行为的有力证据。尽管在背景和数据覆盖方面存在很大差异，但两场战争的幂律系数都趋向于2.5，这是非G7恐怖主义与旧战争相比的一个值特征。我们提出了一个合理的，但分析可解的现代叛乱战争模型，可以解释这些意见。
英文摘要：
Even before 9/11 there were claims that the nature of war had changed fundamentally. The 9/11 attacks created an urgent need to understand contemporary wars and their relationship to older conventional and terrorist wars, both of which exhibit remarkable regularities. The frequency-intensity distribution of fatalities in "old wars", 1816-1980, is a power-law with exponent 1.80. Global terrorist attacks, 1968-present, also follow a power-law with exponent 1.71 for G7 countries and 2.5 for non-G7 countries. Here we analyze two ongoing, high-profile wars on opposite sides of the globe - Colombia and Iraq. Our analysis uses our own unique dataset for killings and injuries in Colombia, plus publicly available data for civilians killed in Iraq. We show strong evidence for power-law behavior within each war. Despite substantial differences in contexts and data coverage, the power-law coefficients for both wars are tending toward 2.5, which is a value characteristic of non-G7 terrorism as opposed to old wars. We propose a plausible yet analytically-solvable model of modern insurgent warfare, which can explain these observations.
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