We present an analysis of a person-to-person recommendation network, consisting of 4 million people who made 16 million recommendations on half a million products. We observe the propagation of recommendations and the cascade sizes, which we explain by a simple stochastic model. We analyze how user behavior varies within user communities defined by a recommendation network. Product purchases follow a 'long tail' where a significant share of purchases belongs to rarely sold items. We establish how the recommendation network grows over time and how effective it is from the viewpoint of the sender and receiver of the recommendations. While on average recommendations are not very effective at inducing purchases and do not spread very far, we present a model that successfully identifies communities, product and pricing categories for which viral marketing seems to be very effective.
In epidemiology, an epidemic is defined as the spread of an infectious disease to a large number of people in a given population within a short period of time. In the marketing context, a message is viral when it is broadly sent and received by the target market through person-to-person transmission. This specific marketing communication strategy is commonly referred as viral marketing. Due to this similarity between an epidemic and the viral marketing process and because the understanding of the critical factors to this communications strategy effectiveness remain largely unknown, the mathema…
In epidemiology, an epidemic is defined as the spread of an infectious disease to a large number of people in a given population within a short period of time. In the marketing context, a message is viral when it is broadly sent and received by the target market through person-to-person transmission. This specific marketing communication strategy is commonly referred as viral marketing. Due to this similarity between an epidemic and the viral marketing process and because the understanding of the critical factors to this communications strategy effectiveness remain largely unknown, the mathema…
Influence Maximization (IM), that seeks a small set of key users who spread the influence widely into the network, is a core problem in multiple domains. It finds applications in viral marketing, epidemic control, and assessing cascading failures within complex systems. Despite the huge amount of effort, IM in billion-scale networks such as Facebook, Twitter, and World Wide Web has not been satisfactorily solved. Even the state-of-the-art methods such as TIM+ and IMM may take days on those networks. In this paper, we propose SSA and D-SSA, two novel sampling frameworks for IM-based viral marke…
In a "tipping" model, each node in a social network, representing an individual, adopts a behavior if a certain number of his incoming neighbors previously held that property. A key problem for viral marketers is to determine an initial "seed" set in a network such that if given a property then the entire network adopts the behavior. Here we introduce a method for quickly finding seed sets that scales to very large networks. Our approach finds a set of nodes that guarantees spreading to the entire network under the tipping model. After experimentally evaluating 31 real-world networks, we found…
Viral marketing is different from other marketing strategies since it leverages the influence power in intimate relationship, e.g., close friends, family members, couples. Due to the development and popularity of social networking services, such as Facebook, Twitter, and Pinterest, the new notion of "social media marketing" has appeared in recent years and presents new opportunities for enabling large-scale and prevalent viral marketing online. To boost the growth of their sales, business is embracing social media in a big way. According to USA Today, the sales of software to run corporate soc…
In a "tipping" model, each node in a social network, representing an individual, adopts a property or behavior if a certain number of his incoming neighbors currently exhibit the same. In viral marketing, a key problem is to select an initial "seed" set from the network such that the entire network adopts any behavior given to the seed. Here we introduce a method for quickly finding seed sets that scales to very large networks. Our approach finds a set of nodes that guarantees spreading to the entire network under the tipping model. After experimentally evaluating 31 real-world networks, we fo…
Information diffusion and influence maximization are important and extensively studied problems in social networks. Various models and algorithms have been proposed in the literature in the context of the influence maximization problem. A crucial assumption in all these studies is that the influence probabilities are known to the social planner. This assumption is unrealistic since the influence probabilities are usually private information of the individual agents and strategic agents may not reveal them truthfully. Moreover, the influence probabilities could vary significantly with the type …
Despite its importance for rumors or innovations propagation, peer-to-peer collaboration, social networking or Marketing, the dynamics of information spreading is not well understood. Since the diffusion depends on the heterogeneous patterns of human behavior and is driven by the participants' decisions, its propagation dynamics shows surprising properties not explained by traditional epidemic or contagion models. Here we present a detailed analysis of our study of real Viral Marketing campaigns where tracking the propagation of a controlled message allowed us to analyze the structure and dyna…
Viral campaigns are crucial methods for word-of-mouth marketing in social communities. The goal of these campaigns is to encourage people for activity. The problem of incentivised and non-incentivised campaigns is studied in the paper. Based on the data collected within the real social networking site both approaches were compared. The experimental results revealed that a highly motivated campaign not necessarily provides better results due to overlapping effect. Additional studies have shown that the behaviour of individual community members in the campaign based on their service profile can …
Identifying noteworthy spreaders in a network is essential for understanding the spreading process and controlling the reach of the spread in the network. The nodes that are holding more intrinsic power to extend the reach of the spread are important due to demand for various applications such as viral marketing, controlling rumor spreading or get a better understanding of spreading of the diseases. As an application of the viral marketing, maximization of the reach with a fixed budget is a fundamental requirement in the advertising business. Distributing a fixed number of promotional items fo…
We consider the problem of devising incentive strategies for viral marketing of a product. In particular, we assume that the seller can influence penetration of the product by offering two incentive programs: a) direct incentives to potential buyers (influence) and b) referral rewards for customers who influence potential buyers to make the purchase (exploit connections). The problem is to determine the optimal timing of these programs over a finite time horizon. In contrast to algorithmic perspective popular in the literature, we take a mean-field approach and formulate the problem as a conti…
Comprehending the virality of a meme can help us in addressing the problems pertaining to disciplines like epidemiology and digital marketing. Therefore, it is not surprising that memetics remains a highly analyzed research topic ever since the mid 1990s. Some scientists choose to investigate the intrinsic contagiousness of a meme while others study the problem from a network theory perspective. In this paper, we revisit the idea of a core-periphery structure and apply it to understand the trajectory of a viral meme in a social network. We have proposed shell-based hill climbing algorithms to …
Companies have been increasingly seeking new mechanisms for making their electronic marketing campaigns to become viral, thus obtaining a cascading recommendation effect similar to word-of-mouth. We analysed a dataset of a magazine publisher that uses email as the main marketing strategy and found out that networks emerging from those campaigns form a very sparse graph. We show that online social networks can be effectively used as a means to expand recommendation networks. Starting from a set of users, called seeders, we crawled Google's Orkut and collected about 20 million users and 80 milli…
Viral marketing is becoming important due to the popularity of online social networks (OSNs). Companies may provide incentives (e.g., via free samples of a product) to a small group of users in an OSN, and these users provide recommendations to their friends, which eventually increases the overall sales of a given product. Nevertheless, this also opens a door for "malicious behaviors": dishonest users may intentionally give misleading recommendations to their friends so as to distort the normal sales distribution. In this paper, we propose a detection framework to identify dishonest users in O…
With the growing importance of corporate viral marketing campaigns on online social networks, the interest in studies of influence propagation through networks is higher than ever. In a viral marketing campaign, a firm initially targets a small set of pioneers and hopes that they would influence a sizeable fraction of the population by diffusion of influence through the network. In general, any marketing campaign might fail to go viral in the first try. As such, it would be useful to have some guide to evaluate the effectiveness of the campaign and judge whether it is worthy of further resourc…
Viral marketing campaigns seek to recruit the most influential individuals to cover the largest target audience. This can be modeled as the well-studied maximum coverage problem. There is a related problem when the recruited nodes are connected. It is called the maximum connected cover problem. This problem ensures a strong coordination between the influential nodes which are the backbone of the marketing campaign. In this work, we are interested on both of these problems. Most of the related literature assumes knowledge about the topology of the network. Even in that case, the problem is know…
In this paper we study a simple cascading process in a structured heterogeneous population, namely, a network composed of two loosely coupled communities. We demonstrate that under certain conditions the cascading dynamics in such a network has a two--tiered structure that characterizes activity spreading at different rates in the communities. We study the dynamics of the model using both simulations and an analytical approach based on annealed approximation, and obtain good agreement between the two. Our results suggest that network modularity might have implications in various applications, …
The flux of visitors through popular places undoubtedly influences viral spreading -- from H1N1 and Zika viruses spreading through physical spaces such as airports, to rumors and ideas spreading though online spaces such as chatrooms and social media. However there is a lack of understanding of the types of viral dynamics that can result. Here we present a minimal dynamical model which focuses on the time-dependent interplay between the {\em mobility through} and the {\em occupancy of} such spaces. Our generic model permits analytic analysis while producing a rich diversity of infection profil…
Measuring and optimizing the influence of nodes in big-data online social networks are important for many practical applications, such as the viral marketing and the adoption of new products. As the viral spreading on social network is a global process, it is commonly believed that measuring the influence of nodes inevitably requires the knowledge of the entire network. Employing percolation theory, we show that the spreading process displays a nucleation behavior: once a piece of information spread from the seeds to more than a small characteristic number of nodes, it reaches a point of no re…
The majority of research on epidemics relies on models which are formulated in continuous-time. However, real-world epidemic data is gathered and processed in a digital manner, which is more accurately described by discrete-time epidemic models. We analyse the discrete-time NIMFA epidemic model on directed networks with heterogeneous spreading parameters. In particular, we show that the viral state is increasing and does not overshoot the steady-state, the steady-state is globally exponentially stable, and we provide linear systems that bound the viral state evolution. Thus, the discrete-time …
Mathematical models are formal and simplified representations of the knowledge related to a phenomenon. In classical epidemic models, a neglected aspect is the heterogeneity of disease transmission and progression linked to the viral load of each infectious individual. Here, we attempt to investigate the interplay between the evolution of individuals' viral load and the epidemic dynamics from a theoretical point of view. In the framework of multi-agent systems, we propose a particle stochastic model describing the infection transmission through interactions among agents and the individual phys…
Viral transmission in pedestrian crowds: Coupling an open-source code assessing the risks of airborne contagion with diverse pedestrian dynamics models
Viral mutation spread controlled by inter-host network dynamics
Galician Center for Mathematical Research and Technology (CITMAga)（加利西亚数学研究与技术中心）；Group of Nonlinear Physics, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela（圣地亚哥-德孔波斯特拉大学非线性物理研究组）；Department of Applied Mathematics, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela（圣地亚哥-德孔波斯特拉大学应用数学系）
We explain a possible mechanism of an information spreading on a network which spreads extremely far from a seed node, namely the viral spreading. On the basis of a model of the information spreading in an online social network, in which the dynamics is expressed as a random multiplicative process of the spreading rates, we will show that the correlation between the spreading rates enhances the chance of the viral spreading, shifting the tipping point at which the spreading goes viral.
In this paper the concept of Critical Community Size (CCS) for the deterministic SIR model is introduced and its consequences for the disease dynamics are stressed. The disease can fade out after an outburst. Also the principle of competitive exclusion holds no longer true. This is exemplified for the dynamics of two competing virus strains. The virus with higher R0 can be eradicated from the population.
The temporal dynamics of social interactions were shown to influence the spread of disease. Here, we model the conditions of progression and competition for several viral strains, exploring various levels of cross-immunity over temporal networks. We use our interaction-driven contagion model and characterize, using it, several viral variants. Our results, obtained on temporal random networks and on real-world interaction data, demonstrate that temporal dynamics are crucial to determining the competition results. We consider two and three competing pathogens and show the conditions under which …
Information propagation on networks is a central theme in social, behavioral, and economic sciences, with important theoretical and practical implications, such as the influence maximization problem for viral marketing. Here, we consider a model that unifies the classical independent cascade models and the linear threshold models, and generalise them by considering continuous variables and allowing feedback in the dynamics. We then formulate its influence maximization as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem and adopt derivative-free methods. Furthermore, we show that the problem can b…
Predicting the viral dynamics of an epidemic process requires the knowledge of the underlying contact network. However, the network is not known for most applications and has to be inferred from observing the viral state evolution instead. We propose a polynomial-time network reconstruction algorithm for the discrete-time NIMFA model based on a basis pursuit formulation. Given only few initial viral state observations, the network reconstruction method allows for an accurate prediction of the further viral state evolution of every node provided that the network is sufficiently sparse.
We investigate a dynamic model of network marketing in a small-world network structure artificially constructed similarly to the Watts-Strogatz network model. Different from the traditional marketing, consumers can also play the role of the manufacturer's selling agents in network marketing, which is stimulated by the referral fee the manufacturer offers. As the wiring probability $α$ is increased from zero to unity, the network changes from the one-dimensional regular directed network to the star network where all but one player are connected to one consumer. The price $p$ of the product and …
In social and biological systems, the structural heterogeneity of interaction networks gives rise to the emergence of a small set of influential nodes, or influencers, in a series of dynamical processes. Although much smaller than the entire network, these influencers were observed to be able to shape the collective dynamics of large populations in different contexts. As such, the successful identification of influencers should have profound implications in various real-world spreading dynamics such as viral marketing, epidemic outbreaks and cascading failure. In this chapter, we first summari…
Models of contagion dynamics, originally developed for infectious diseases, have proven relevant to the study of information, news, and political opinions in online social systems. Modelling diffusion processes and predicting viral information cascades are important problems in network science. Yet, many studies of information cascades neglect the variation in infectivity across different pieces of information. Here, we employ early-time observations of online cascades to estimate the infectivity of distinct pieces of information. Using simulations and data from real-world Twitter retweets, we…
