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arXiv 2203.08115physics.soc-phcs.SIstat.AP
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基于时间交互驱动传染模型的病毒株间竞争分析

Analysis of the competition among viral strains using a temporal interaction-driven contagion model

Alex Abbey, Yuval Shahar, Osnat Mokryn

摘要:

社会互动的时间动态被证明会影响疾病的传播。在这里,我们模拟了几种病毒株的进展和竞争条件,探索了时间网络上不同水平的交叉免疫。我们使用我们的相互作用驱动的传染模型和特点,使用它,几个病毒变种。我们的研究结果,在时间随机网络和现实世界的相互作用数据,表明时间动态是至关重要的,以确定竞争的结果。我们考虑两种和三种竞争的病原体,并显示在何种条件下,一个较慢的病原体将保持活跃,并创建第二波感染大多数人口。然后,我们表明,当被认为是持续时间的遭遇,传播动态变化显着。我们的研究结果表明,在考虑空气传播疾病时,考虑时间会议的持续时间来模拟病原体在人群中的传播可能至关重要。

英文摘要:

The temporal dynamics of social interactions were shown to influence the spread of disease. Here, we model the conditions of progression and competition for several viral strains, exploring various levels of cross-immunity over temporal networks. We use our interaction-driven contagion model and characterize, using it, several viral variants. Our results, obtained on temporal random networks and on real-world interaction data, demonstrate that temporal dynamics are crucial to determining the competition results. We consider two and three competing pathogens and show the conditions under which a slower pathogen will remain active and create a second wave infecting most of the population. We then show that when the duration of the encounters is considered, the spreading dynamics change significantly. Our results indicate that when considering airborne diseases, it might be crucial to consider the duration of temporal meetings to model the spread of pathogens in a population.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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