Pattern informatics (PI) technique can be used to detect precursory seismic activation or quiescence and make earthquake forecast. Here we apply the PI method for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, using the data catalogue maintained by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The PI method is tested to forecast large (magnitude m >= 5) earthquakes for the time period 1995-2004 in the Kobe region. Visual inspection and statistical testing show that the optimized PI method has forecasting skill, relative to the seismic intensity data often used as a standard null hypothesis. Moreover, we find a retrospective forecast that the 1995 Kobe earthquake (m = 7.2) falls in a seismically anomalous area. Another approach to test the forecasting algorithm is to create a future potential map for large (m >= 5) earthquake events. This is illustrated using the Kobe and Tokyo regions for the forecast period 2000-2009. Based on the resulting Kobe map we point out several forecasted areas: the epicentral area of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Wakayama area, the Mie area, and the Aichi area. The Tokyo forecasted map was created prior to the occurrence of the Oct. 23, 2004 Niigata earthquake (m = 6.8) and the principal aftershocks with m >= 5.0. We find that these events occurred in a forecasted area in the Tokyo map. The PI technique for regional seismicity observation substantiates an example showing considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting in Japan.
Recent studies have shown that real-valued principal component analysis can be applied to earthquake fault systems for forecasting and prediction. In addition, theoretical analysis indicates that earthquake stresses may obey a wave-like equation, having solutions with inverse frequencies for a given fault similar to those that characterize the time intervals between the largest events on the fault. It is therefore desirable to apply complex principal component analysis to develop earthquake forecast algorithms. In this paper we modify the Pattern Informatics method of earthquake forecasting to…
We present a RELM forecast of future earthquakes in California that is primarily based on the pattern informatics (PI) method. This method identifies regions that have systematic fluctuations in seismicity, and it has been demonstrated to be successful. A PI forecast map originally published on 19 February 2002 for southern California successfully forecast the locations of sixteen of eighteen M>5 earthquakes during the past three years. The method has also been successfully applied to Japan and on a worldwide basis. An alternative approach to earthquake forecasting is the relative intensity (R…
The aftershock sequence of the devastating Japan earthquake of March 2011 is analyzed for the presence of periodicities at the Earth tide periods. We use spectral analysis as well as a time-domain method KORRECT developed earlier to detect presence of diurnal and semi-diurnal periodicities in the sequence of aftershocks (M \geq 4). This suggests that large aftershocks in the fault zone of the Japan 2011 earthquake were strongly influenced by Earth tides.
Recent studies in the literature have introduced a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on representing the space-time patterns of localized seismicity by a time-dependent system state vector in a real-valued Hilbert space and deducing information about future space-time fluctuations from the phase angle of the state vector. While the success rate of this Pattern Informatics (PI) method has been encouraging, the method is still in its infancy. Procedural analysis, statistical testing, parameter sensitivity investigation and optimization all still need to be performed. In this paper, we…
Plate motions are governed by equilibrium between basal and edge forces. Great earthquakes may induce differential static stress changes across tectonic plates, enabling a new equilibrium state. Here we consider the torque balance for idealized circular plates and find a simple scalar relationship for changes in relative plate speed as a function of its size, upper mantle viscosity, and coseismic stress changes. Applied to Japan, the 2011 $\mathrm{M}_{\mathrm{W}}=9.0$ Tohoku earthquake generated coseismic stresses of $10^2-10^5$~Pa that could have induced changes in motion of small (radius $\s…
The time of occurrence of the large EQ that occurred recently in Japan (March 11th, 2011, Mw = 8.9) is compared to the time of peak amplitude occurrence of the M1 and K1 tidal components. It is shown that the specific EQ occurred on the peak of the M1 tidal component, and deviates for only 45 minutes from the corresponding K1 tidal peak. Therefore, the specific seismic event complies quite well with the earlier proposed physical mechanism (lithospheric oscillation) that causes triggering of large EQs.
Significant advances, both in the theoretical understanding of rupture processes in heterogeneous media and in the methodology for characterizing critical behavior, allows us to reanalyze the evidence for criticality and especially log-periodicity in the previously reported chemical anomalies that preceded the Kobe earthquake. The ion ($Cl^-$, $K^+$, $Mg^{++}$, $NO_3^{-}$ and $SO_4^{--}$) concentrations of ground-water issued from deep wells located near the epicenter of the 1995 Kobe earthquake are taken as proxies for the cumulative damage preceding the earthquake. Using both a parametric an…
The Tohoku EQ (11th of March, 2011, M = 9.0) in Japan falsified the proposed EQ magnitude range (M = 7.0 - 8.5) of the same seismogenic regional area that had been determined by the compiled hazard maps, study of historical data, or other probabilistic methods while a larger magnitude (M > 9.0) had been proposed for all subduction zones. The observed discrepancy between the proposed EQ magnitude range and the actual one of the Tohoku EQ is studied in this work in terms of the cumulative seismic energy release of the study area and by the use of the Lithospheric Seismic Energy Flow Model (LSEFM…
This research presents one possible way for imminent prediction of earthquake magnitude, depth and epicenter coordinates by solving the inverse problem using a data acquisition network system for monitoring, archiving and complex analysis of geophysical variables precursors. Among many possible precursors the most reliable are the geoelectromagnetic field, the boreholes water level, the radon surface concentration, the local heat flow, the ionosphere variables, the low frequency atmosphere and Earth core waves. In this study only geomagnetic data are used. Within the framework of geomagnetic q…
A characteristic change of seismicity has been recently uncovered when the precursory Seismic Electric Signals activities initiate before an earthquake occurrence. In particular, the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit a simultaneous distinct minimum upon analyzing the seismic catalogue in a new time domain termed natural time and employing a sliding natural time window comprising a number of events that would occur in a few months. Here, we focus on the minima preceding all earthquakes of magnitude 8 (and 9) class that occurred in Japanese area from 1 January 1984 to 11 …
We investigated changes in the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter's law in and around the focal areas of earthquakes on March 20 and on May 1, 2021, with magnitude (M) 6.9 and 6.8, respectively, which occurred off the Pacific coast of Miyagi prefecture, northeastern Japan. We showed that the b value in these focal areas had been noticeably small, especially within a few years before the occurrence of the M6.9 earthquake in its vicinity, indicating that differential stress had been high in the focal areas. The coseismic slip of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake seems to have stopped just short of the ea…
Tidal sensitivity of tremors in a mixed fast and slow earthquake system in northeastern Japan
Ecole Normale Supérieure, CNRS-UMR 8538, PSL Research University（巴黎高等师范学院）；Department of Earth and Planetary Science, The University of Tokyo（东京大学地球行星科学系）
A recently proposed method of constructing seismic networks from 'record breaking events' from the earthquake catalog of California (Phy. Rev. E, 77 6,066104, 2008) was successfull in establishing causal features to seismicity and arrive at estimates for rupture length and its scaling with magnitude. The results of our implementation of this procedure on the earthquake catalog of Japan establishes the robustness of the procedure. Additionally, we find that the temporal distributions are able to detect heterogeneties in the seismicity of the region.
We report the observation of the ground rotation induced by the Mw=9.0, 11th of March 2011, Japan earthquake. The rotation measurements have been conducted with a ring laser gyroscope operating in a vertical plane, thus detecting rotations around the horizontal axis. Comparison of ground rotations with vertical accelerations from a co-located force-balance accelerometer shows excellent ring laser coupling at periods longer than 100s. Under the plane wave assumption, we derive a theoretical relationship between horizontal rotation and vertical acceleration for Rayleigh waves. Due to the oblique…
Non-randomness of Japan megaquakes implied by stress recovery and accumulation
University of Shizuoka（静冈大学）；Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Davis（加州大学戴维斯分校物理与天文系）；Center for Integrated Research and Education of Natural Hazards, Shizuoka University（静冈大学自然灾害综合研究教育研究中心）；Institute of Statistical Mathematics（统计数学研究所）；Yokohama Institute for Earth Sciences, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology（日本海洋地球科学技术厅横滨地球科学研究所）
We modify the new method for the statistical estimation of the tail distribution of earthquake seismic moments introduced by Pisarenko et al. [2009] and apply it to the earthquake catalog of Japan (1923-2007). The method is based on the two main limit theorems of the theory of extreme values and on the derived duality between the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV). We obtain the distribution of maximum earthquake magnitudes in future time intervals of arbitrary duration tau. This distribution can be characterized by its quantile Qq(tau) at an…
The Multifractal Stress-Activated (MSA) model is a statistical model of triggered seismicity based on mechanical and thermodynamic principles. It predicts that, above a triggering magnitude cut-off $M_0$, the exponent $p$ of the Omori law for the seismic decay of aftershocks is a linear increasing function $p(M) =a M+b$ of the main shock magnitude $M$. We previously reported empirical support for this prediction, using the Southern California SCEC catalog. Here, we confirm this law using an updated, longer version of the same catalog, as well as new methods to estimate $p$. One of this methods…
The 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes started with a magnitude (M) 6.5 quake on Apr 14 on the Hinagu fault zone (FZ), followed by active seismicity including an M6.4 quake. Eventually, an M7.3 quake occurred on Apr 16 on the Futagawa FZ. We investigated if any sign indicative of the M7.3 quake could be found in the space-time changes of seismicity after the M6.5 quake. We determined in advance the threshold magnitude, above which all earthquakes are completely recorded. We then showed that the occurrence rate of relatively large (M >= 3) earthquakes significantly decreased 1 day before the M7.3 quake.…
Xu et al. [J. Asian Earth Sci. {\bf 77}, 59-65 (2013)] It has just been reported that approximately 2 months prior to the $M_w$9.0 Tohoku earthquake that occurred in Japan on 11 March 2011 anomalous variations of the geomagnetic field have been observed in the vertical component at a measuring station about 135 km from the epicenter for about 10 days (4 to 14 January 2011). Here, we show that this observation is in striking agreement with independent recent results obtained from natural time analysis of seismicity in Japan. In particular, this analysis has revealed that an unprecedented minimu…
The 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence, Japan revisited: Insights from Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Seismicity Parameters
Farhangian University（法尔干大学）；Ankara University（安卡拉大学）；University of Beira Interior（贝拉内陆大学）；Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (AORI), the University of Tokyo（东京大学大气海洋研究所）
We consider two issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) what is the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in this area, and (2) what are the possibilities of numerical short-term forecasts during the 2011 earthquake sequence in the Tohoku area. Starting in 1999 we have carried out long- and short-term forecasts for Japan and the surrounding areas using the GCMT catalog. The forecasts predict the earthquake rate per area, time, magnitude unit and earthquake focal mechanisms. Long-term forecasts indicate that the repeat time for the m9 earthquake in the Tohoku area is of the ord…
Diffusional earthquakes and their slip-distance scaling
Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of ScienceTohoku University（东北大学地球科学学院地震火山灾害预测研究中心）；Research Institute for Marine Geodynamics, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology（日本海洋地球科学技术院海洋地质动力学研究所）
Earthquakes are a complex spatiotemporal phenomenon, the underlying mechanism for which is still not fully understood despite decades of research and analysis. We propose and develop a network approach to earthquake events. In this network, a node represents a spatial location while a link between two nodes represents similar activity patterns in the two different locations. The strength of a link is proportional to the strength of the cross-correlation in activities of two nodes joined by the link. We apply our network approach to a Japanese earthquake catalog spanning the 14-year period 1985…
No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting. This approach is based on a pattern informatics (PI) method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output is a map of areas in a seismogenic region (``hotspots'') where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-…
Crustal deformation due to the 2016 earthquake sequence in Kumamoto, Japan, that culminated in a preceding earthquake of magnitude M6.5 and a subsequent M7.3 earthquake 28 hours later, caused stress perturbation on and around the causative Futagawa-Hinagu fault zone. Monitoring changes in seismicity pattern along this zone plays a role in understanding the process before and after major earthquakes. For this purpose, stress-dependent laws in statistical seismology can be used: the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size law and the Omori-Utsu aftershock-decay law. We review the results obtained by us…
We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of statistical and fault-system models have been discussed for use in computing forecast probabilities. Our paper takes a new approach. The idea is based on the observation that GR statistics characterize seismicity for all space and time. Small magnitude event counts (quake counts) are used as markers for the approach of large events. More specifically, if the GR b-v…
We present the results of a response of global seismicity to St. Patrick's Day (March 17) geomagnetic storms in 2013 and 2015, which occurred during rather similar solar flux levels and nearly identical storm sudden commencement times. A similar pattern of most substantial earthquake occurrence after storms is revealed. Namely, with a time delay of ~30 and ~39 days after storm onsets in 2013 and 2015, respectively, the strong crust earthquakes occurred at continental areas in Iran (M7.7, April 16, 2013) and Nepal (M7.8, April 25, 2015). Then, with a time delay of ~68 and ~74 days after storm o…
