大气中幂律持续性的分析与应用
Power-Law Persistence in the Atmosphere: Analysis and Applications
摘要：
我们回顾了气候记录中长期持续性的出现及其与评价全球气候模式和罕见事件的相关性的最新结果。持续性可以用例如间隔s天的温度变化的相关性C（s）来表征。我们表明，与以前的预期相反，对于大的s，C（s）按幂律衰减，C（s）~ s^（-gamma）。对于大陆台站，指数伽马总是接近0.7，而对于岛屿台站，伽马大约为0.4。与温度波动相反，降雨量的波动通常不具有长期幂律相关性，而是具有明显的短期相关性。大陆台站温度波动的普遍持久性定律是最先进的全球气候模型的理想（但不太舒服）试验台，使我们能够评估它们的性能。此外，长期相关性的存在导致了一种新的方法来评估罕见事件的统计。
英文摘要：
We review recent results on the appearance of long-term persistence in climatic records and their relevance for the evaluation of global climate models and rare events.The persistence can be characterized, for example, by the correlation C(s) of temperature variations separated by s days.We show that, contrary to previous expectations, C(s) decays for large s as a power law, C(s) ~ s^(-gamma). For continental stations, the exponent gamma is always close to 0.7, while for stations on islands gamma is around 0.4. In contrast to the temperature fluctuations, the fluctuations of the rainfall usually cannot be characterized by long-term power-law correlations but rather by pronounced short-term correlations. The universal persistence law for the temperature fluctuations on continental stations represents an ideal (and uncomfortable) test-bed for the state of-the-art global climate models and allows us to evaluate their performance. In addition, the presence of long-term correlations leads to a novel approach for evaluating the statistics of rare events.
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