László Györfi, Márton Ispány, Gyula Pap, Katalin Varga
An inhomogeneous first--order integer--valued autoregressive (INAR(1)) process is investigated, where the autoregressive type coefficient slowly converges to one. It is shown that the process converges weakly to a Poisson or a compound Poisson distribution.
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Strictly stationary INAR(1) ("integer-valued autoregressive processes of order 1") with Poisson innovations are "interlaced rho-mixing".
We discuss joint temporal and contemporaneous aggregation of $N$ independent copies of strictly stationary INteger-valued AutoRegressive processes of order 1 (INAR(1)) with random coefficient $α\in(0,1)$ and with idiosyncratic Poisson innovations. Assuming that $α$ has a density function of the form $ψ(x)(1 - x)^β$, $x\in(0,1)$, with $\lim_{x\uparrow 1}ψ(x) = ψ_1 \in(0,\infty)$, different limits of appropriately centered and scaled aggregated partial sums are shown to exist for $β\in(-1,0)$, $β= 0$, $β\in(0,1)$ or $β\in(1,\infty)$, when taking first the limit as $N\to\infty$ and then the time …
A class of count time series models uniting compound Poisson INAR and INGARCH models
本文提出统一复合泊松INAR与INGARCH过程的广义整数值ARMA模型类，研究其随机性质与推断方法，并以德国巴伐利亚州麻疹、腮腺炎周病例数验证模型适用性。
We investigate joint temporal and contemporaneous aggregation of N independent copies of strictly stationary INteger-valued AutoRegressive processes of order 1 (INAR(1)) with random coefficient $α\in(0,1)$ and with idiosyncratic Poisson innovations. Assuming that $α$ has a density function of the form $ψ(x) (1 - x)^β$, $x \in (0,1)$, with $β\in(-1,\infty)$ and $\lim_{x\uparrow 1} ψ(x) = ψ_1 \in (0,\infty)$, different limits of appropriately centered and scaled aggregated partial sums are shown to exist for $β\in(-1,0]$ in the so-called simultaneous case, i.e., when both $N$ and the time scale …
We investigate the inhomogeneous Galton--Watson processes with immigration, where $ρ_n$ the offspring means in the $n^\textrm{th}$ generation tends to 1. We show that if the second derivatives of the offspring generating functions go to 0 rapidly enough, then the asymptotics are the same as in the INAR(1) case, treated by Györfi et al. We also determine the limit if this assumption does not hold showing the optimality of the conditions.
The recently introduced two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet diffusion extends the infinitely-many-neutral-alleles model, related to Kingman's distribution and to Fleming-Viot processes. The role of the additional parameter has been shown to regulate the clustering structure of the population, but is yet to be fully understood in the way it governs the reproductive process. Here we shed some light on these dynamics by providing a finite-population construction, with finitely-many species, of the two-parameter infinite-dimensional diffusion. The costruction is obtained in terms of Wright-Fisher chai…
This article employs the relation between probabilities of two consecutive values of a Poisson random variable to derive conditions for the weak convergence of point processes to a Poisson process. As applications, we consider the starting points of k-runs in a sequence of Bernoulli random variables and point processes constructed using inradii and circumscribed radii of inhomogeneous Poisson-Voronoi tessellations.
We consider a problem of estimation for the telegrapher's process on the line, say X(t), driven by a Poisson process with non constant rate. It turns out that the finite-dimensional law of the process X(t) is a solution to the telegraph equation with non constant coefficients. We give the explicit law P(theta) of the process X(t) for a parametric class of intensity functions for the Poisson process. We propose an estimator for the parameter theta of P(theta) and we discuss its properties as a first attempt to apply statistics to these models.
The space-fractional and the time-fractional Poisson processes are two well-known models of fractional evolution. They can be constructed as standard Poisson processes with the time variable replaced by a stable subordinator and its inverse, respectively. The aim of this paper is to study non-homogeneous versions of such models, which can be defined by means of the so-called multistable subordinator (a jump process with non-stationary increments), denoted by H. Firstly, we consider the Poisson process time-changed by H and we obtain its explicit distribution and governing equation. Then, by us…
In this paper we study finite velocity planar random motions with an infinite number of possible directions, where the number of changes of direction is randomized by means of an inhomogeneous fractional Poisson distribution. We first discuss the properties of the distributions of the generalized fractional inhomogeneous Poisson process. Then we show that the explicit probability law of the planar random motions where the number of changes of direction is governed by this fractional distribution can be obtained in terms of Mittag-Leffler functions. We also consider planar random motions with r…
The greedy walk is a deterministic walk that always moves from its current position to the nearest not yet visited point. In this paper we consider the greedy walk on an inhomogeneous Poisson point process on the real line. Our primary interest is whether the walk visits all points of the point process, and we determine sufficient and necessary conditions on the mean measure of the point process for this to happen. Moreover, we provide precise results on threshold functions for the property of visiting all points.
Consider a graph on randomly scattered points in an arbitrary space, with two points $x,y$ connected with probability $ϕ(x,y)$. Suppose the number of points is large but the mean number of isolated points is $O(1)$. We give general criteria for the latter to be approximately Poisson distributed. More generally, we consider the number of vertices of fixed degree, the number of components of fixed order, and the number of edges. We use a general result on Poisson approximation by Stein's method for a set of points selected from a Poisson point process. This method also gives a good Poisson appro…
A number of numeric approaches to simulate Poisson point processes with arbitrary event rates are presented and implemented for R. They include the simulation of the number of points and their location as well as the determination of conditional probability densities and random numbers in cases where additional information (e.g. location of points or number of points occurring) is available upfront.
We prove functional limits theorems for the occupation time process of a system of particles moving independently in $R^d$ according to a symmetric $α$-stable Lévy process, and starting off from an inhomogeneous Poisson point measure with intensity measure $μ(dx)=(1+|x|^γ)^{-1}dx,γ>0$, and other related measures. In contrast to the homogeneous case $(γ=0)$, the system is not in equilibrium and ultimately it vanishes, and there are more different types of occupation time limit processes depending on arrangements of the parameters $γ, d$ and $α$. The case $γ<d<α$ leads to an extension of fractio…
Averaging principles for time-inhomogeneous multi-scale SDEs via nonautonomous Poisson equations
本文研究时间非齐次多尺度随机微分方程的渐近行为，通过分析马尔可夫半群测度演化与非自治泊松方程性质，推导了两类带显式收敛速率的强弱平均原理，并通过算例验证了有效性。
Annealed Survival Probability of Random Walk in an Inhomogeneous Poisson Environment of Mobile Traps
该研究确定了1、2维移动陷阱非齐次泊松环境中随机游走退火生存概率的渐近行为，推广了齐次情形的相关结论，还建立了d≥1时非齐次环境下的大数定律等极限定理，并给出了两类特殊环境的实例。
The $(d,α,β,γ)$-branching particle system consists of particles moving in $R^d$ according to a symmetric $α$-stable Lévy process $(0<α\leq 2)$, splitting with a critical $(1+β)$-branching law $(0<β\leq 1)$, and starting from an inhomogeneous Poisson random measure with intensity measure $μ_γ(dx)=dx/(1+|x|^γ), γ\geq 0$. By means of time rescaling $T$ and Poisson intensity measure $H_Tμ_γ$, occupation time fluctuation limits for the system as $T\to\infty$ have been obtained in two special cases: Lebesgue measure ($γ=0$, the homogeneous case), and finite measures $(γ>d)$. In some cases $H_T\equiv…
Quantitative boundary Hölder estimates for the inhomogeneous Poisson problem through a probabilistic approach
本文通过概率方法为非齐次泊松问题推导了具有显式常数的定量边界Hölder估计，并应用于神经网络求解以绕过高维灾难。
Poisson structure and Integrability of a Hamiltonian flow for the inhomogeneous six-vertex model
本文计算了非均匀六顶点模型 Hamiltonian 流的 action-angle 变量，证实了其可积性猜想，并利用 Faddeev 和 Takhtajan 的方法通过 Poisson 括号和矩阵条目分析证明了该性质。
We consider a class of scale-free inhomogeneous random graphs, which includes some long-range percolation models. We study the maximum degree in such graphs in a growing observation window and show that its limiting distribution is Frechet. We achieve this by proving convergence of the underlying point process of the degrees to a certain Poisson process. Estimating the index of the power-law tail for the typical degree distribution is an important question in statistics. We prove consistency of the Hill estimator for the inverse of the tail exponent of the typical degree distribution.
Consider a set of $n$ vertices, where each vertex has a location in $\mathbb{R}^d$ that is sampled uniformly from the unit cube in $\mathbb{R}^d$, and a weight associated to it. Construct a random graph by placing edges independently for each vertex pair with a probability that is a function of the distance between the locations, and the vertex weights. Under appropriate integrability assumptions on the edge probabilities that imply sparseness of the model, after appropriately blowing up the locations, we prove that the local limit of this random graph sequence is the (countably) infinite rand…
Dynamical Equations for Poisson Galton--Watson Trees and Component Densities of Sparse Inhomogeneous Random Graphs
研究泊松高尔顿 - 沃森树，通过确定参数导数、建立微分积分方程等方法，在特定条件下关联多种过程并证明总后代可积性。应用于稀疏非齐次随机图，得出连通组件数量极限及明确极限公式，扩展了相关公式适用范围。
Fluctuations of the giant of Poisson random graphs
本文研究泊松随机图巨分量的涨落，将动态 Erdős-Rényi 随机图的过程级高斯涨落结果推广到经验权重分布及其二阶矩收敛的秩一非齐次模型。
This article discusses the usage of a partiton based Fubini calculus for Poisson processes. The approach is an amplification of Bayesian techniques developed in Lo and Weng for gamma/Dirichlet processes. Applications to models are considered which all fall within an inhomogeneous spatial extension of the size biased framework used in Perman, Pitman and Yor. Among some of the results; an explicit partition based calculus is then developed for such models, which also includes a series of important exponential change of measure formula. These results are applied to obtain results for Levy-Cox mod…
Given b>0, integers n, m=bn and a probability measure Q on {0, 1,..., m}, consider the random intersection graph on the vertex set [n]={1, ..., n}, where i and j are declared adjacent whenever S(i) and S(j) intersect. Here S(1), ..., S(n) denote iid random subsets of [m] such that P(|S(i)|=k)=Q(k). For sparse random intersection graphs we establish a first order asymptotic for the order of the largest connected component N=n(1-Q(0))g+o(n) in probability. Here g is an average of nonextinction probabilities of a related multi-type Poisson branching process.
Local weak limit of dynamical inhomogeneous random graphs
本文提出动态非齐次随机图 DIRG_n(κ,β) 及其增长—分割多类型 Poisson-Galton-Watson 局部弱极限，并推广至顶点更新模型，为图上协同演化过程提供分析框架。
We consider the point process of signal strengths from transmitters in a wireless network observed from a fixed position under models with general signal path loss and random propagation effects. We show via coupling arguments that under general conditions this point process of signal strengths can be well-approximated by an inhomogeneous Poisson or a Cox point processes on the positive real line. We also provide some bounds on the total variation distance between the laws of these point processes and both Poisson and Cox point processes. Under appropriate conditions, these results support the…
In a classical problem for the stopping of a diffusion process $(X_t)_{t \geq 0}$, where the goal is to maximise the expected discounted value of a function of the stopped process ${\mathbb E}^x[e^{-βτ}g(X_τ)]$, maximisation takes place over all stopping times $τ$. In a Poisson optimal stopping problem, stopping is restricted to event times of an independent Poisson process. In this article we consider whether the resulting value function $V_θ(x) = \sup_{τ\in {\mathcal T}({\mathbb T}^θ)}{\mathbb E}^x[e^{-βτ}g(X_τ)]$ (where the supremum is taken over stopping times taking values in the event ti…
We study the critical behavior of inhomogeneous random graphs where edges are present independently but with unequal edge occupation probabilities. The edge probabilities are moderated by vertex weights, and are such that the degree of vertex i is close in distribution to a Poisson random variable with parameter w_i, where w_i denotes the weight of vertex i. We choose the weights such that the weight of a uniformly chosen vertex converges in distribution to a limiting random variable W, in which case the proportion of vertices with degree k is close to the probability that a Poisson random var…
Poisson Hypothesis and large-population limit for networks of spiking neurons
本文证明泊松假设对具有线性和二次内在动力学的Galves-Löcherbach脉冲神经元网络的副本平均场极限成立，并进一步证明其大种群极限为受随机重置影响的适定神经场模型。
In this work, we consider a modification of time \emph{inhomogeneous} branching random walk, where the driving increment distribution changes over time macroscopically. Following Bandyopadhyay and Ghosh (2021), we give certain independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) displacements to all the particles at the last generation. We call this process \emph{last progeny modified time inhomogeneous branching random walk (LPMTI-BRW)}. Under very minimal assumptions on the underlying point processes of the displacements, we show that the maximum displacement converges to a limit after only an a…
The distances between flats of a Poisson $k$-flat process in the $d$-dimensional Euclidean space with $k<d/2$ are discussed. Continuing an approach originally due to Rolf Schneider, the number of pairs of flats having distance less than a given threshold and midpoint in a fixed compact and convex set is considered. For a family of increasing convex subsets, the asymptotic variance is computed and a central limit theorem with an explicit rate of convergence is proven. Moreover, the asymptotic distribution of the $m$-th smallest distance between two flats is investigated and it is shown that the…
This paper addresses a detection problem where several spatially distributed sensors independently observe a time-inhomogeneous stochastic process. The task is to decide between two hypotheses regarding the statistics of the observed process at the end of a fixed time interval. In the proposed method, each of the sensors transmits once to a fusion center a locally processed summary of its information in the form of a likelihood ratio. The fusion center then combines these messages to arrive at an optimal decision in the Neyman-Pearson framework. The approach is motivated by applications arisin…
Consider a stationary Poisson process in a $d$-dimensional hyperbolic space. For $R>0$ define the point process $ξ_R^{(k)}$ of exceedance heights over a suitable threshold of the hyperbolic volumes of $k$th nearest neighbour balls centred around the points of the Poisson process within a hyperbolic ball of radius $R$ centred at a fixed point. The point process $ξ_R^{(k)}$ is compared to an inhomogeneous Poisson process on the real line with intensity function $e^{-u}$ and point process convergence in the Kantorovich-Rubinstein distance is shown. From this, a quantitative limit theorem for the …
Keeler, Ross and Xia (2016) recently derived approximation and convergence results, which imply that the point process formed from the signal strengths received by an observer in a wireless network under a general statistical propagation model can be modelled by an inhomogeneous Poisson point process on the positive real line. The basic requirement for the results to apply is that there must be a large number of transmitters with different locations and random propagation effects.The aim of this note is to apply some of the main results of Keeler, Ross and Xia (2016) in a less general but more…
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