This article proposes a link between statistics and the theory of Dirichlet forms used to compute errors. The error calculus based on Dirichlet forms is an extension of classical Gauss' approach to error propagation. The aim of this paper is to derive error structures from measurements. The links with Fisher's information lay the foundations of a strong connection with experiment. We show that this connection behaves well towards changes of variables and is related to the theory of asymptotic statistics.
The approximation of integral functionals with respect to a stationary Markov process by a Riemann-sum estimator is studied. Stationarity and the functional calculus of the infinitesimal generator of the process are used to get a better understanding of the estimation error and to prove a general error bound. The presented approach admits general integrands and gives a unifying explanation for different rates obtained in the literature. Several examples demonstrate how the general bound can be related to well-known function spaces.
Quantile estimation in deconvolution problems is studied comprehensively. In particular, the more realistic setup of unknown error distributions is covered. Our plug-in method is based on a deconvolution density estimator and is minimax optimal under minimal and natural conditions. This closes an important gap in the literature. Optimal adaptive estimation is obtained by a data-driven bandwidth choice. As a side result, we obtain optimal rates for the plug-in estimation of distribution functions with unknown error distributions. The method is applied to a real data example.
This manuscript is a supplemental document providing the omitted material for our paper entitled "Nonparametric kernel estimation of the probability density function of regression errors using estimated residuals" [arXiv:1010.0439]. The paper is submitted to Journal of Nonparametric Statistics.
This work studies the total variation regularized $\ell_2$ estimator (fused lasso) in the setting of a change point detection problem. Compared with existing works that focus on the sum of squared estimation errors, we give bound on the element-wise estimation error. Our bound is nearly optimal in the sense that the sum of squared error matches the best existing result, up to a logarithmic factor. This analysis of the element-wise estimation error allows a screening method that can approximately detect all the change points. We also generalize this method to the muitivariate setting, i.e., to …
The estimation of a probability p from repeated Bernoulli trials is considered in this paper. A sequential approach is followed, using a simple stopping rule. A closed-form expression and an upper bound are obtained for the mean absolute error of the unbiased estimator of p. The results given permit the estimation of an arbitrary probability with a prescribed level of normalized mean absolute error.
This paper deals with the estimation of hidden periodicities in a non-linear regression model with stationary noise displaying cyclical dependence. Consistency and asymptotic normality are established for the least-squares estimates.
This paper deals with the nonparametric density estimation of the regression error term assuming its independence with the covariate. The difference between the feasible estimator which uses the estimated residuals and the unfeasible one using the true residuals is studied. An optimal choice of the bandwidth used to estimate the residuals is given. We also study the asymptotic normality of the feasible kernel estimator and its rate-optimality.
This paper investigates the minimum mean square error (MMSE) estimation of x, given the observation y = Hx+n, when x and n are independent and Gaussian Mixture (GM) distributed. The introduction of GM distributions, represents a generalization of the more familiar and simpler Gaussian signal and Gaussian noise instance. We present the necessary theoretical foundation and derive the MMSE estimator for x in a closed form. Furthermore, we provide upper and lower bounds for its mean square error (MSE). These bounds are validated through Monte Carlo simulations.
Consider the nonparametric regression model Y=m(X)+E, where the function m is smooth but unknown, and E is independent of X. An estimator of the density of the error term E is proposed and its weak consistency is obtained. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we evaluate the impact of the estimation of the regression function on the error density estimator. Secondly, the optimal choices of the first and second step bandwidths used for estimating the regression function and the error density are proposed. Further, we investigate the asymptotic normality of the error density estimat…
This paper deals with the problem of estimating a slope parameter in a simple linear regression model, where independent variables have functional measurement errors. Measurement errors in independent variables, as is well known, cause biasedness of the ordinary least squares estimator. A general procedure for the bias reduction is presented in a finite sample situation, and some exact bias-reduced estimators are proposed. Also, it is shown that certain truncation procedures improve the mean square errors of the ordinary least squares and the bias-reduced estimators.
Small area estimation has received enormous attention in recent years due to its wide range of application, particularly in policy making decisions. The variance based on direct sample size of small area estimator is unduly large and there is a need of constructing model based estimator with low mean squared prediction error (MSPE). Estimation of MSPE and in particular the bias correction of MSPE plays the central piece of small area estimation research. In this article, a new technique of bias correction for the estimated MSPE is proposed. It is shown that that the new MSPE estimator attains …
We study the non-parametric estimation of the value $θ(f )$ of a linear functional evaluated at an unknown density function f with support on $R_+$ based on an i.i.d. sample with multiplicative measurement errors. The proposed estimation procedure combines the estimation of the Mellin transform of the density $f$ and a regularisation of the inverse of the Mellin transform by a spectral cut-off. In order to bound the mean squared error we distinguish several scenarios characterised through different decays of the upcoming Mellin transforms and the smoothnes of the linear functional. In fact, we…
We tackle the issue of the blind prediction of a Gaussian time series. For this, we construct a projection operator build by plugging an empirical covariance estimation into a Schur complement decomposition of the projector. This operator is then used to compute the predictor. Rates of convergence of the estimates are given.
In this paper we have suggested difference-type estimator for estimation of population mean of the study variable y in the presence of measurement error using auxiliary information. The optimum estimator in the suggested estimator has been identified along with its mean square error formula. It has been shown that the suggested estimator performs more efficient then other existing estimators. An empirical study is also carried out to illustrate the merits of proposed method over other traditional methods.
Random uniform sampling has been studied in various statistical tasks but few of them have covered the Q-error metric for cardinality estimation (CE). In this paper, we analyze the confidence intervals of random uniform sampling with and without replacement for single-table CE. Results indicate that the upper Q-error bound depends on the sample size and true cardinality. Our bound gives a rule-of-thumb for how large a sample should be kept for single-table CE.
In this paper, we built a new nonparametric regression estimator with the local linear method by using the mean squared relative error as a loss function when the data are subject to random right censoring. We establish the uniform almost sure consistency with rate over a compact set of the proposed estimator. Some simulations are given to show the asymptotic behavior of the estimate in different cases.
In this article we study the estimation of the location of jump points in the first derivative (referred to as kinks) of a regression function μin two random design models with different long-range dependent (LRD) structures. The method is based on the zero-crossing technique and makes use of high-order kernels. The rate of convergence of the estimator is contingent on the level of dependence and the smoothness of the regression function μ. In one of the models, the convergence rate is the same as the minimax rate for kink estimation in the fixed design scenario with i.i.d. errors which sugges…
In this article, we consider the parameter estimation of regression model with pth order autoregressive (AR(p)) error term. We use the Maximum Lq-likelihood (MLq) estimation method that is proposed by Ferrari and Yang (2010a), as a robust alternative to the classical maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method to handle the outliers in the data. After exploring the MLq estimators for the parameters of interest, we provide some asymptotic properties of the resulting MLq estimators. We give a simulation study and a real data example to illustrate the performance of the new estimators over the ML e…
Data driven extreme value distribution estimation: Derivation of the Mean Integrated Squared Error, optimal bandwidth selection and stability conditions
In parameter estimation, assumptions about the model are typically considered which allow us to build optimal estimation methods under many statistical senses. However, it is usually the case where such models are inaccurately known or not capturing the complexity of the observed phenomenon. A natural question arises to whether we can find fundamental estimation bounds under model mismatches. This paper derives a general bound on the mean square error (MSE) following the Ziv-Zakai methodology for the widely used additive Gaussian model. The general result accounts for erroneous functionals, hy…
It is a typical standard assumption in the density deconvolution problem that the characteristic function of the measurement error distribution is non-zero on the real line. While this condition is assumed in the majority of existing works on the topic, there are many problem instances of interest where it is violated. In this paper we focus on non--standard settings where the characteristic function of the measurement errors has zeros, and study how zeros multiplicity affects the estimation accuracy. For a prototypical problem of this type we demonstrate that the best achievable estimation ac…
Measurements of a scalar linear Gauss-Markov process are sent over a fading channel. The fading channel is modeled as independent and identically distributed random variables with known realization at the receiver. The optimal estimator at the receiver is the Kalman filter. In contrast to the classical Kalman filter theory, given a random channel, the Kalman gain and the error covariance become random. Then the probability distribution function of expected estimation error and its outage probability can be chosen for estimation quality assessment. In this paper and in order to get the estimati…
Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；University of Florida（佛罗里达大学）
We consider least squares estimation in a general nonparametric regression model. The rate of convergence of the least squares estimator (LSE) for the unknown regression function is well studied when the errors are sub-Gaussian. We find upper bounds on the rates of convergence of the LSE when the errors have uniformly bounded conditional variance and have only finitely many moments. We show that the interplay between the moment assumptions on the error, the metric entropy of the class of functions involved, and the "local" structure of the function class around the truth drives the rate of con…
The minimum error entropy (MEE) criterion has been successfully used in fields such as parameter estimation, system identification and the supervised machine learning. There is in general no explicit expression for the optimal MEE estimate unless some constraints on the conditional distribution are imposed. A recent paper has proved that if the conditional density is conditionally symmetric and unimodal (CSUM), then the optimal MEE estimate (with Shannon entropy) equals the conditional median. In this study, we extend this result to the generalized MEE estimation where the optimality criterion…
