Thibault Espinasse, Fabrice Gamboa, Jean-Michel Loubes
We tackle the issue of the blind prediction of a Gaussian time series. For this, we construct a projection operator build by plugging an empirical covariance estimation into a Schur complement decomposition of the projector. This operator is then used to compute the predictor. Rates of convergence of the estimates are given.
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The blind source separation model for multivariate time series generally assumes that the observed series is a linear transformation of an unobserved series with temporally uncorrelated or independent components. Given the observations, the objective is to find a linear transformation that recovers the latent series. Several methods for accomplishing this exist and three particular ones are the classic SOBI and the recently proposed generalized FOBI (gFOBI) and generalized JADE (gJADE), each based on the use of joint lagged moments. In this paper we generalize the methodologies behind these al…
Consider a time series of signal measurements $x(t)$, having components $x_k \mbox{ for } k = 1,2, \ldots ,N$. This paper shows how to determine if these signals are equal to linear or nonlinear mixtures of the state variables of two or more statistically-independent subsystems. First, the local distribution of measurement velocities ($\dot{x}$) is processed in order to derive $N$ local vectors at each $x$. If the data are separable, each of these vectors is directed along a subspace traversed by varying the state variable of one subsystem, while all other subsystems are kept constant. Because…
Blind source separation (BSS) is a signal processing tool, which is widely used in various fields. Examples include biomedical signal separation, brain imaging and economic time series applications. In BSS, one assumes that the observed $p$ time series are linear combinations of $p$ latent uncorrelated weakly stationary time series. The aim is then to find an estimate for an unmixing matrix, which transforms the observed time series back to uncorrelated latent time series. In SOBI (Second Order Blind Identification) joint diagonalization of the covariance matrix and autocovariance matrices wit…
Various nonparametric approaches for Bayesian spectral density estimation of stationary time series have been suggested in the literature, mostly based on the Whittle likelihood approximation. A generalization of this approximation has been proposed in Kirch et al. who prove posterior consistency for spectral density estimation in combination with the Bernstein-Dirichlet process prior for Gaussian time series. In this paper, we will extend the posterior consistency result to non-Gaussian time series by employing a general consistency theorem of Shalizi for dependent data and misspecified model…
High-dimensional latent Gaussian count time series: Concentration results for autocovariances and applications
本文研究由潜在平稳向量高斯序列驱动的计数时间序列模型，在高维情形下建立了潜在高斯自协方差估计的集中界，并将其应用于向量自回归参数的LASSO型稀疏估计。
We consider the problem of approximating sums of high-dimensional stationary time series by Gaussian vectors, using the framework of functional dependence measure. The validity of the Gaussian approximation depends on the sample size $n$, the dimension $p$, the moment condition and the dependence of the underlying processes. We also consider an estimator for long-run covariance matrices and study its convergence properties. Our results allow constructing simultaneous confidence intervals for mean vectors of high-dimensional time series with asymptotically correct coverage probabilities. A Gaus…
This chapter presents some novel information theoretic results for the analysis of stationary time series in the frequency domain. In particular, the spectral distribution that corresponds to the most uncertain or unpredictable time series with some values of the autocovariance function fixed, is the generalized von Mises spectral distribution. It is thus a maximum entropy spectral distribution and the corresponding stationary time series is called the generalized von Mises time series. The generalized von Mises distribution is used in directional statistics for modelling planar directions tha…
Gaussian couplings of partial sum processes are derived for the high-dimensional regime $d=o(n^{1/3})$. The coupling is derived for sums of independent random vectors and subsequently extended to nonstationary time series. Our inequalities depend explicitly on the dimension and on a measure of nonstationarity, and are thus also applicable to arrays of random vectors. To enable high-dimensional statistical inference, a feasible Gaussian approximation scheme is proposed. Applications to sequential testing and change-point detection are described.
A semi-analytic method is proposed for the generation of realizations of a multivariate process of a given linear correlation structure and marginal distribution. This is an extension of a similar method for univariate processes, transforming the autocorrelation of the non-Gaussian process to that of a Gaussian process based on a piece-wise linear marginal transform from non-Gaussian to Gaussian marginal. The extension to multivariate processes involves the derivation of the autocorrelation matrix from the marginal transforms, which determines the generating vector autoregressive process. The …
The Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) extracted dynamic modes are the non-orthogonal eigenvectors of the matrix that best approximates the one-step temporal evolution of the multivariate samples. In the context of dynamical system analysis, the extracted dynamic modes are a generalization of global stability modes. We apply DMD to a data matrix whose rows are linearly independent, additive mixtures of latent time series. We show that when the latent time series are uncorrelated at a lag of one time-step then, in the large sample limit, the recovered dynamic modes will approximate, up to a colum…
We present a novel blind source separation (BSS) method, called information geometric blind source separation (IGBSS). Our formulation is based on the log-linear model equipped with a hierarchically structured sample space, which has theoretical guarantees to uniquely recover a set of source signals by minimizing the KL divergence from a set of mixed signals. Source signals, received signals, and mixing matrices are realized as different layers in our hierarchical sample space. Our empirical results have demonstrated on images and time series data that our approach is superior to well establis…
We study a well-known estimator of the fractal index of a stochastic process. Our framework is very general and encompasses many models of interest; we show how to extend the theory of the estimator to a large class of non-Gaussian processes. Particular focus is on clarity and ease of implementation of the estimator and the associated asymptotic results, making it easy for practitioners to apply the methods. We additionally show how measurement noise in the observations will bias the estimator, potentially resulting in the practitioner erroneously finding evidence of fractal characteristics in…
Consider a time series of measurements of the state of an evolving system, x(t), where x has two or more components. This paper shows how to perform nonlinear blind source separation; i.e., how to determine if these signals are equal to linear or nonlinear mixtures of the state variables of two or more statistically independent subsystems. First, the local distributions of measurement velocities are processed in order to derive vectors at each point in x-space. If the data are separable, each of these vectors must be directed along a subspace of x-space that is traversed by varying the state v…
In this paper, we show that slow feature analysis (SFA), a common time series decomposition method, naturally fits into the flow-based models (FBM) framework, a type of invertible neural latent variable models. Building upon recent advances on blind source separation, we show that such a fit makes the time series decomposition identifiable.
This paper develops the theory and methods for modeling a stationary count time series via Gaussian transformations. The techniques use a latent Gaussian process and a distributional transformation to construct stationary series with very flexible correlation features that can have any pre-specified marginal distribution, including the classical Poisson, generalized Poisson, negative binomial, and binomial structures. Gaussian pseudo-likelihood and implied Yule-Walker estimation paradigms, based on the autocovariance function of the count series, are developed via a new Hermite expansion. Part…
Ergodicity breaking is a challenge for biological and psychological sciences. Ergodicity is a necessary condition for linear causal modeling. Long-range correlations and non-Gaussianity characterizing various biological and psychological measurements break ergodicity routinely, threatening our capacity for causal modeling. Long-range correlations (e.g., in fractional Gaussian noise, a.k.a. "pink noise") break ergodicity--in raw Gaussian series, as well as in some but not all standard descriptors of variability, i.e., in coefficient of variation (CV) and root mean square (RMS) but not standard …
We extend the mixtures of Gaussians (MOG) model to the projected mixture of Gaussians (PMOG) model. In the PMOG model, we assume that q dimensional input data points z_i are projected by a q dimensional vector w into 1-D variables u_i. The projected variables u_i are assumed to follow a 1-D MOG model. In the PMOG model, we maximize the likelihood of observing u_i to find both the model parameters for the 1-D MOG as well as the projection vector w. First, we derive an EM algorithm for estimating the PMOG model. Next, we show how the PMOG model can be applied to the problem of blind source separ…
In graph signal processing (GSP), prior information on the dependencies in the signal is collected in a graph which is then used when processing or analyzing the signal. Blind source separation (BSS) techniques have been developed and analyzed in different domains, but for graph signals the research on BSS is still in its infancy. In this paper, this gap is filled with two contributions. First, a nonparametric BSS method, which is relevant to the GSP framework, is refined, the Cramér-Rao bound (CRB) for mixing and unmixing matrix estimators in the case of Gaussian moving average graph signals …
We consider the linear regression problem of estimating an unknown, deterministic parameter vector based on measurements corrupted by colored Gaussian noise. We present and analyze blind minimax estimators (BMEs), which consist of a bounded parameter set minimax estimator, whose parameter set is itself estimated from measurements. Thus, one does not require any prior assumption or knowledge, and the proposed estimator can be applied to any linear regression problem. We demonstrate analytically that the BMEs strictly dominate the least-squares estimator, i.e., they achieve lower mean-squared er…
Bayesian estimation methods for sparse blind deconvolution problems conventionally employ Bernoulli-Gaussian (BG) prior for modeling sparse sequences and utilize Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for the estimation of unknowns. However, the discrete nature of the BG model creates computational bottlenecks, preventing efficient exploration of the probability space even with the recently proposed enhanced sampler schemes. To address this issue, we propose an alternative MCMC method by modeling the sparse sequences using the Normal-Inverse-Gamma (NIG) prior. We derive effective Gibbs sample…
Non-stationary time series with non-linear trends are frequently encountered in applications. We consider here the feasibility of accurately forecasting the signals of multiple such time series considering jointly when the number of historic samples is inadequate for accurately forecasting the signal of each considered in isolation. We develop a new forecasting methodology based on Gaussian process regression that is successful in doing so in examples for which the method of generalized least-squares is not. The new method employs a form of deep machine learning.
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