The mathematical model of a linear system with the short memory about own stochastic behavior is proposed. It is assumed that the system is under a continual influence of independent stochastic impulses. In a short memory approximation the expression of the stochastic process is found. An application of the model proposed to capital market processes is examined. The approach allows form a stochastic differential for processes concerned. The analog of the Black-Scholes equation for assets dealt on a market with the memory is expressed.
We present an alternative proof for the existence of solutions of stochastic functional differential equations satisfying a global Lipschitz condition. The proof is based on an approximation scheme in which the continuous path dependence does not go up to the present: there is a memory gap. Strong convergence is obtained by closing the gap. Such approximation is particularly useful when extending stochastic models with discrete delay to models with continuous full finite memory.
The asymptotic log-Harnack inequality is established for several different models of stochastic differential systems with infinite memory: non-degenerate SDEs, Neutral SDEs, semi-linear SPDEs, and stochastic Hamiltonian systems. As applications, the following properties are derived for the associated segment Markov semigroups: asymptotic heat kernel estimate; uniqueness of the invariant probability measure; asymptotic gradient estimate and hence, asymptotically strong Feller property; and asymptotic irreducibilty.
The exponential stability, in both mean square and almost sure senses, for energy solutions to a class of nonlinear and non-autonomous stochastic PDEs with finite memory is investigated. Various criteria for stability are obtained. An example is presented to demonstrate the main results.
A stochastic differential equation with infinite memory is considered. The drift coefficient of the equation is a nonlinear functional of the past history of the solution. Sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness of stationary solution are given.
By starting from the stochastic Schrödinger equation and quantum trajectory theory, we introduce memory effects by considering stochastic adapted coefficients. As an example of a natural non-Markovian extension of the theory of white noise quantum trajectories we use an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck coloured noise as the output driving process. Under certain conditions a random Hamiltonian evolution is recovered. Moreover, we show that our non-Markovian stochastic Schrödinger equations unravel some master equations with memory kernels.
In this paper, we consider stationarity of a class of second-order stochastic evolution equations with memory, driven by Wiener processes or Levy jump processes, in Hilbert spaces. The strategy is to formulate by reduction some first-order systems in connection with the stochastic equations under investigation. We develop asymptotic behavior of dissipative second-order equations and then apply them to time delay systems through Gearhart-Pruss-Greiner's theorem. The stationary distribution of the system under consideration is the projection on the first coordinate of the corresponding stationar…
For a heat equation with memory driven by a Lévy-type noise we establish the existence of a unique solution. The main part of the article focuses on the Freidlin-Wentzell large deviation principle of the solutions of heat equation with memory driven by a Lévy-type noise. For this purpose, we exploit the recently introduced weak convergence approach.
We present two main theorems for stochastic processes with a Markov regime-switching model. First, we work on an existence-uniqueness theorem for a Stochastic Differential Delay Equation with Jumps and Regimes (SDDEJRs). Then, we provide the duality between an SDDEJR and an Anticipated Backward Stochastic Differential Equation with Jumps and Regimes (ABSDEJRs). Our goal is to provide two technical and basis theorems for the future theoretical and applied developments of time-delayed and time-advanced models.
In this paper we show the convergence of the long-term return $t^{-μ}\int_0^tX(s)\d s$ for some $μ\geq1$, where $X$ is the short-term interest rate which follows an extension of Cox-Ingersoll-Ross type model with jumps and memory, and, as an application, we also investigate the corresponding behavior of two-factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model with jumps and memory
The initial time-dependence of a state in circumstances where it makes transitions to, or decay to, a second state has been investigated. In classical stochastic processes, the observed time dependence of transition or decay proportional to $t^2$ is attributed to the noise with memory. In contrast to quantum mechanics, the quadratic form of initial decay is unable to decelerate the evolution of the system.
Stochastic chains with memory of variable length constitute an interesting family of stochastic chains of infinite order on a finite alphabet. The idea is that for each past, only a finite suffix of the past, called context, is enough to predict the next symbol. These models were first introduced in the information theory literature by Rissanen (1983) as a universal tool to perform data compression. Recently, they have been used to model up scientific data in areas as different as biology, linguistics and music. This paper presents a personal introductory guide to this class of models focusing…
We consider binary infinite order stochastic chains perturbed by a random noise. This means that at each time step, the value assumed by the chain can be randomly and independently flipped with a small fixed probability. We show that the transition probabilities of the perturbed chain are uniformly close to the corresponding transition probabilities of the original chain. As a consequence, in the case of stochastic chains with unbounded but otherwise finite variable length memory, we show that it is possible to recover the context tree of the original chain, using a suitable version of the alg…
We explore Ito stochastic differential equations where the drift term possibly depends on the infinite past. Assuming the existence of a Lyapunov function, we prove the existence of a stationary solution assuming only minimal continuity of the coefficients. Uniqueness of the stationary solution is proven if the dependence on the past decays sufficiently fast. The results of this paper are then applied to stochastically forced dissipative partial differential equations such as the stochastic Navier-Stokes equation and stochastic Ginsburg-Landau equation.
In this work, we consider the regularity property of stochastic convolutions for a class of abstract linear stochastic retarded functional differential equations with unbounded operator coefficients. We first establish some useful estimates on fundamental solutions which are time delay versions of those on $C_0$-semigroups. To this end, we develop a scheme of constructing the resolvent operators for the integrodifferential equations of Volterra type since the equation under investigation is of this type in each subinterval describing the segment of its solution. Then we apply these estimates t…
We consider a class of semi-linear differential Volterra equations with memory terms, polynomial nonlinearities and random perturbation. For a broad class of nonlinearities, we study statistically steady states of the system and find that they possess regularities compatible with those of the weak solutions. Moreover, if sufficiently many directions in the phase space are stochastically forced, we employ the \emph{generalized coupling} approach to establish the existence and uniqueness of the invariant probability measure to which the system is exponentially attractive. This extends ergodicity…
Contemporaneous aggregation of individual AR(1) random processes might lead to different properties of the limit aggregated time series, in particular, long memory (Granger, 1980). We provide a new characterization of the series of autoregressive coefficients, which is defined from the Wold representation of the limit of the aggregate stochastic process, in the presence of long-memory features. Especially the infinite autoregressive stochastic process defined by the almost sure representation of the aggregate process has a unit root in the presence of the long-memory property. Finally we discu…
We consider the supOU stochastic volatility model which is able to exhibit long-range dependence. For this model we give conditions for the discounted stock price to be a martingale, calculate the characteristic function, give a strip where it is analytic and discuss the use of Fourier pricing techniques. Finally, we present a concrete specification with polynomially decaying autocorrelations and calibrate it to observed market prices of plain vanilla options.
This paper deals with a class of optimal control problems which arises in advertising models with Volterra Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process representing the product goodwill. Such choice of the model can be regarded as a stochastic modification of the classical Nerlove-Arrow model that allows to incorporate both presence of uncertainty and empirically observed memory effects such as carryover or distributed forgetting. We present an approach to solve such optimal control problems based on an infinite dimensional lift which allows us to recover Markov properties by formulating a optimization problem …
Stochastic systems with memory naturally appear in life science, economy, and finance. We take the modelling point of view of stochastic functional delay equations and we study these structures when the driving noises admit jumps. Our results concern existence and uniqueness of strong solutions, estimates for the moments and the fundamental tools of calculus, such as the Itô formula. We study the robustness of the solution to the change of noises. Specifically, we consider the noises with infinite activity jumps versus an adequately corrected Gaussian noise. The study is presented in two diffe…
In this paper we give simple sufficient conditions for linear type processes with short memory that imply the invariance principle. Various examples including projective criterion are considered as applications. In particular, we treat the weak invariance principle for partial sums of linear processes with short memory. We prove that whenever the partial sums of innovations satisfy the $L_p$--invariance principle, then so does the partial sums of its corresponding linear process.
We study the non-Markovian random continuous processes described by the Mori-Zwanzig equation. As a starting point, we use the Markovian Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and introduce an integral memory term depending on the past of the process into expression for the higher-order transition probability function and stochastic differential equation. We show that the proposed processes can be considered as continuous-time interpolations of discrete-time higher-order autoregressive sequences. An equation connecting the memory function (the kernel of integral term) and the two-point correlatio…
In light of recent work on particles fluctuating in linear viscoelastic fluids, we study a linear stochastic partial-integro-differential equation with memory that is driven by a stationary noise on a bounded, smooth domain. Using the framework of generalized stationary solutions introduced in~\cite{mckinley2018anomalous}, we provide sufficient conditions on the differential operator and the noise to obtain the existence as well as Hölder regularity of the stationary solutions for the concerned equation. As an application of the regularity results, we compare to analogous classical results for…
We study the partial maxima of stationary α-stable processes. We relate their asymptotic behavior to the ergodic theoretical properties of the flow. We observe a sharp change in the asymptotic behavior of the sequence of partial maxima as flow changes from being dissipative to being conservative, and argue that this may indicate a change from a short memory process to a long memory process.
In this paper we consider a linear stochastic Volterra equation which has a stationary solution. We show that when the kernel of the fundamental solution is regularly varying at infinity with a log-convex tail integral, then the autocovariance function of the stationary solution is also regularly varying at infinity and its exact pointwise rate of decay can be determined. Moreover, it can be shown that this stationary process has either long memory in the sense that the autocovariance function is not integrable over the reals or is subexponential. Under certain conditions upon the kernel, even…
This paper is composed of two main results concerning chains of infinite order which are not necessarily continuous. The first one is a decomposition of the transition probability kernel as a countable mixture of unbounded probabilistic context trees. This decomposition is used to design a simulation algorithm which works as a combination of the algorithms given by Comets et al. (2002) and Gallo (2009). The second main result gives sufficient conditions on the kernel for this algorithm to stop after an almost surely finite number of steps. Direct consequences of this last result are existence …
We show how to construct a topological Markov map of the interval whose invariant probability measure is the stationary law of a given stochastic chain of infinite order. In particular we caracterize the maps corresponding to stochastic chains with memory of variable length. The problem treated here is the converse of the classical construction of the Gibbs formalism for Markov expanding maps of the interval.
Let $X_1, X_2,\dots$ be a short-memory linear process of random variables. For $1\leq q<2$, let $\cF$ be a bounded set of real-valued functions on $[0,1]$ with finite $q$-variation. It is proved that $\{n^{-1/2}\sum_{i=1}^nX_if(i/n)\colon\,f\in\cF\}$ converges in outer distribution in the Banach space of bounded functions on $\cF$ as $n\to\infty$. Several applications to a regression model and a multiple change point model are given.
The main objective of the paper is to study the long-time behavior of general discrete dynamics driven by an ergodic stationary Gaussian noise. In our main result, we prove existence and uniqueness of the invariant distribution and exhibit some upper-bounds on the rate of convergence to equilibrium in terms of the asymptotic behavior of the covariance function of the Gaussian noise (or equivalently to its moving average representation). Then, we apply our general results to fractional dynamics (including the Euler Scheme associated to fractional driven Stochastic Differential Equations). Whent…
In this paper we consider the growth, large fluctuations and memory properties of an affine stochastic functional differential equation with an average functional where the contributions of the average and instantaneous terms are parameterised. An asymptotic analysis of the solution of this equation is conducted for all values of the parameters of the equation. When solutions are recurrent, we show that the autocovariance function of the solution decays at a polynomial rate, even though the solution is asymptotically equal to another asymptotically stationary process whose autocovariance funct…
In this note, we prove the large deviation principle for the 2D-fractional stochastic Navier-Stokes equation on the torus under the dissipation order $ α\in [\frac43, 2]$.
Enhanced diffusion is an emergent property of many experimental microswimmer systems that usually arises from a combination of ballistic motion with random reorientations. A subset of these systems, autophoretic droplet swimmers that move as a result of Marangoni stresses, have additionally been shown to respond to local, self-produced chemical gradients that can mediate self-avoidance or self-attraction. Via this mechanism, we present a mathematical model constructed to encode experimentally observed self-avoidant memory and numerically study the effect of this particular memory on the enhanc…
We introduce a Vasicek-type short rate model which has two additional parameters representing memory effect. This model presents better results in yield curve fitting than the classical Vasicek model. We derive closed-form expressions for the prices of bonds and bond options. Though the model is non-Markov, there exists an associated Markov process which allows one to apply usual numerical methods to the model. We derive analogs of an affine term structure and term structure equations for the model, and, using them, we present a numerical method to evaluate contingent claims.
Recent empirical studies suggest that the volatility of an underlying price process may have correlations that decay slowly under certain market conditions. In this paper, the volatility is modeled as a stationary process with long-range correlation properties in order to capture such a situation, and we consider European option pricing. This means that the volatility process is neither a Markov process nor a martingale. However, by exploiting the fact that the price process is still a semimartingale and accordingly using the martingale method, we can obtain an analytical expression for the op…
