针对行为还是意图？表达-私下意见动态中的干预策略
Targeting Behavior or Intention? Intervention Strategies in Expressed-Private Opinion Dynamics
AI总结：
通过扩展表达-私下意见模型并引入外部干预，比较针对表达层面与私下层面的干预策略有效性，发现干预效果取决于采纳水平，低采纳时针对表达层面更有效，高采纳时针对私下层面更有效。
摘要：
外部干预，包括经济激励，可用于促进行为改变和新产品或实践的采纳。它们可能作用于不同层面，要么直接影响客户的行为（表达层面），要么改变意图（私下层面）。关键问题是哪种干预策略更有效：针对表达层面还是私下层面。尽管表达-私下意见（EPO）模型特别适合解决这个问题，但尚未在此背景下使用。为填补这一空白，我们通过纳入外部干预扩展了先前的基于智能体的EPO模型，并比较了不同的干预策略。我们使用平均场近似分析所得模型，并在完全图上辅以蒙特卡洛模拟。我们的结果表明，对于干预应针对表达意见还是私下意见，没有普遍答案。干预的有效性取决于其引入时的采纳水平。当采纳水平较低时，针对表达层面的干预更有效；而当采纳水平已经很高且目标是支持内部接受和减少失调时，针对私下层面的干预更有效。此外，模型显示高采纳伴随着表达与私下意见之间的低失调，这与自我一致性理论一致。这一一致性为模型提供了理论支持，并增强了其政策含义。
英文摘要：
Exogenous interventions, including economic incentives, can be used to promote behavioral change and the adoption of new products or practices. They may act on different levels, either directly affecting customers' behavior (expressed level) or changing intentions (private level). The key question is which intervention strategy is more effective: targeting the expressed or the private level. Although expressed-private opinion (EPO) models are especially suitable for addressing this problem, they have not yet been used in this context. To fill this gap, we extend previous agent-based EPO models by incorporating exogenous interventions and compare different intervention strategies. We analyze the resulting model using a mean-field approximation, complemented by Monte Carlo simulations on a complete graph. Our results show that there is no universal answer to whether an intervention should target the expressed or the private opinion. The effectiveness of an intervention depends on the adoption level at the moment of its introduction. Interventions acting on the expressed level are more effective when adoption is still low, whereas interventions acting on the private level are more effective when adoption is already high and the goal is to support internal acceptance and reduce dissonance. Moreover, the model shows that high adoption is accompanied by low dissonance between expressed and private opinions, which is consistent with self-congruity theory. This agreement provides theoretical support for the model and strengthens its policy implications.
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