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arXiv 2604.00599cs.LG
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通过推断 governing 方程来预测超大规模复杂系统的动态

Predicting Dynamics of Ultra-Large Complex Systems by Inferring Governing Equations

Southeast University(东南大学);Queen Mary University of London(伦敦玛丽女王大学);Università di Catania and INFN(卡塔尼亚大学及国家核物理研究所);Complexity Science Hub Vienna(维也纳复杂性科学中心);Fudan University(复旦大学)

Qi Shao, Duxin Chen, Jiawen Chen, Yujie Zeng, Athen Ma, Wenwu Yu, Vito Latora, Wei Lin

AI总结:

本文提出 SIGN 框架,通过数据推断大规模网络系统 governing 方程,实现高效且可靠的长时预测,适用于复杂系统研究。

摘要:

预测超大规模复杂系统的行为,从气候到生物和技术网络,是核心未解挑战。现有方法面临根本性权衡:方程发现方法提供可解释性但难以扩展,而神经网络可扩展但作为黑箱且长期可靠性差。本文引入稀疏识别图神经网络(SIGN),通过定义符号发现为边级信息,将稀疏识别的可扩展性与网络规模解耦,使在大规模系统中高效发现方程成为可能。SIGN 能处理超过 10 万节点的网络,且对噪声、稀疏采样和缺失数据具有鲁棒性。在多种基准系统中,包括耦合混沌振荡器、神经动力学和传染病传播,SIGN 高精度恢复 governing 方程并维持准确的长期预测。应用于 71,987 个海表面位置的时间序列温度数据集,SIGN 识别出紧凑的预测网络模型,提前两年捕捉到大尺度海表面温度条件。通过在以前无法触及的规模上实现方程发现,SIGN 开启了通往可解释和可靠预测现实复杂系统的新路径。

英文摘要:

Predicting the behavior of ultra-large complex systems, from climate to biological and technological networks, is a central unsolved challenge. Existing approaches face a fundamental trade-off: equation discovery methods provide interpretability but fail to scale, while neural networks scale but operate as black boxes and often lose reliability over long times. Here, we introduce the Sparse Identification Graph Neural Network, a framework that overcome this divide by allowing to infer the governing equations of large networked systems from data. By defining symbolic discovery as edge-level information, SIGN decouples the scalability of sparse identification from network size, enabling efficient equation discovery even in large systems. SIGN allows to study networks with over 100,000 nodes while remaining robust to noise, sparse sampling, and missing data. Across diverse benchmark systems, including coupled chaotic oscillators, neural dynamics, and epidemic spreading, it recovers governing equations with high precision and sustains accurate long-term predictions. Applied to a data set of time series of temperature measurements in 71,987 sea surface positions, SIGN identifies a compact predictive network model and captures large-scale sea surface temperature conditions up to two years in advance. By enabling equation discovery at previously inaccessible scales, SIGN opens a path toward interpretable and reliable prediction of real-world complex systems.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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