估算城市非药物干预措施的遏制效果和经济成本
Estimating the Containment Effectiveness and Economic Cost of Inner-city Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
AI总结：
本文通过大数据分析，研究了城市非药物干预措施在遏制流行病和经济成本之间的权衡，提出二维评估框架以优化政策实施效果。
摘要：
非药物干预措施（NPIs）对于控制流行病至关重要，但现有研究往往忽视个体行为的异质性，这可能导致对策略有效性的不准确评估。在本文中，我们利用一个主要中国城市的精细粒度真实世界个体轨迹大数据集，来考察不同NPIs在遏制效果和经济成本之间的权衡。我们的发现揭示了不同NPIs在激活机制和初始未检测传播规模下的显著差异。基于这些结果，我们构建了一个二维评估框架，全面评估遏制效果和经济成本的影响，这表明在低激活阈值下实施严格策略（如封锁或接触追踪）可以实现最优的流行病控制，同时经济成本最低。我们的研究为理解城市系统中应急管理办法的实施效果和适用性提供了数据驱动的决策框架。
英文摘要：
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are crucial for controlling pandemics, but existing research often overlooks the heterogeneity of individual behavior, which can lead to inaccurate evaluations of the effectiveness of strategies. In this paper, we use a large dataset of fine-grained real-world individual trajectory data from a major Chinese city to examine the trade-off between the epidemic containment effectiveness and economic cost of different NPIs. Our findings reveal significant variations in the outcomes of different NPIs across activation mechanisms and initial scales of undetected transmission. Based on these results, we construct a two-dimensional evaluation framework that comprehensively evaluates the impact of both the containment effectiveness and economic cost, which suggests that implementing stringent strategies-such as lockdown or contact tracing-at low activation thresholds can achieve optimal epidemic control with minimal economic cost. Our study provides a data-driven decision-making framework for understanding the implementation effectiveness and applicability of emergency management policies within urban systems.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
