限制银河系内智能技术文明的寿命
Constraining the Lifespan of Intelligent Technological Civilization in the Galaxy
AI总结：
研究通过费米悖论探讨银河系内智能技术文明寿命限制，指出在乐观假设下，文明寿命上限约为5000年。
摘要：
在本文中，我们探讨了在银河系内技术智能文明的出现和寿命的限制，考虑了费米悖论。我们认为，在乐观假设下，地球类行星上生命和智能出现的概率，缺乏与外星文明接触的事实对它们的寿命施加了限制。我们的分析表明，如果智能生命很普遍，技术文明必须相对较短命，其寿命在我们最乐观的情景下被限制在$\lesssim 5\times10^3$年以内。考虑到电磁通信，我们注意到当前光锥涵盖了过去$\sim 10^5$年内的整个银河系历史，使长期文明未发现信号变得尤为令人困惑。我们强调，这些结果应被视为来自费米悖论的上限，而不是实际寿命的预测。
英文摘要：
In this work, we explore constraints on the emergence and longevity of technologically intelligent civilizations in our Galaxy, considering the Fermi paradox. We argue that under optimistic assumptions about the probability of life and intelligence emerging on Earth-like planets, the absence of contact with extraterrestrial civilizations imposes limits on their lifespan. Our analysis suggests that if intelligent life is common, technological civilizations must be relatively short-lived, with lifetimes constrained to $\lesssim 5\times10^3$ years under our most optimistic scenario. Considering electromagnetic communication, we note that our current light cone encompasses the entire Galactic history over the past $\sim 10^5$ years, making the lack of detected signals particularly puzzling for long-lived civilizations. We emphasize that these results should be interpreted as upper bounds derived from the Fermi paradox, not as predictions of actual lifespans.
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