费米粒子与极光效应：外文明定居、扩张与稳态
The Fermi Paradox and the Aurora Effect: Exo-civilization Settlement, Expansion and Steady States
摘要：
我们模拟了太空文明对银河系的定居，以解决与费米粒子相关的问题。我们探讨这个问题的方式，避免假设任何外来文明寻求解决其他行星系统的意图和动机。我们首先通过有限速度和范围的探测器来考虑推进定居点的速度，以确定银河系是否可以在比其年龄更短的时间尺度上与太空文明一起居住。我们还包括恒星运动的长期行为的沉降前，增加了一个扩散组件，其先进的效果。这些模型的结果表明，银河系可以很容易地“填充”与解决恒星系统的星际航天器的速度和发射率的保守假设。然后，我们考虑的问题，银河系的稳定状态实现的定居行星的分数。我们这样做，考虑有限的定居文明寿命的稳定状态的影响。我们发现一系列的参数，星系支持人口的星际空间航行的文明，即使一些可定居的系统是无人居住的。这两个结果都指出了地球可能在有人居住的星系中保持无人造访的方式。最后，我们考虑如何将我们的结果可以结合有限的地平线上以前的定居点在地球的地质记录的证据。我们的稳态模型可以限制一个定居文明在给定的时间范围内访问地球的概率。这些结果打破了哈特著名的“事实A”（地球上现在没有星际访客）与人类必须是银河系中唯一的技术文明的结论之间的联系。
英文摘要：
We model the settlement of the galaxy by space-faring civilizations in order to address issues related to the Fermi Paradox. We explore the problem in a way that avoids assumptions about the intent and motivation of any exo-civilization seeking to settle other planetary systems. We first consider the speed of an advancing settlement via probes of finite velocity and range to determine if the galaxy can become inhabited with space-faring civilizations on timescales shorter than its age. We also include the effect of stellar motions on the long term behavior of the settlement front which adds a diffusive component to its advance. The results of these models demonstrate that the Milky Way can be readily 'filled-in' with settled stellar systems under conservative assumptions about interstellar spacecraft velocities and launch rates. We then consider the question of the galactic steady-state achieved in terms of the fraction of settled planets. We do this by considering the effect of finite settlement civilization lifetimes on the steady states. We find a range of parameters for which the galaxy supports a population of interstellar space-faring civilizations even though some settleable systems are uninhabited. Both results point to ways in which Earth might remain unvisited in the midst of an inhabited galaxy. Finally we consider how our results can be combined with the finite horizon for evidence of previous settlements in Earth's geologic record. Our steady-state model can constrain the probabilities for an Earth visit by a settling civilization before a given time horizon. These results break the link between Hart's famous "Fact A" (no interstellar visitors on Earth now) and the conclusion that humans must, therefore, be the only technological civilization in the galaxy.
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