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arXiv 2602.21757cs.LGcs.AI
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从昨日误差学习:一种用于交通需求预测的高效在线学习方法

Learning from Yesterday's Error: An Efficient Online Learning Method for Traffic Demand Prediction

Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering, Ministry of Education at Tongji University(交通工程教育部重点实验室,同济大学);Urban Mobility Institute, Tongji University(交通 mobility 院,同济大学)

Xiannan Huang, Quan Yuan, Chao Yang

AI总结:

FORESEE提出了一种高效在线学习方法,通过利用昨日误差修正交通需求预测,实现高精度和低计算开销。

摘要:

准确预测短期交通需求对于智能交通系统至关重要。尽管深度学习模型在稳定条件下表现优异,但当面临由外部事件或城市动态变化引起的分布偏移时,其准确性往往会显著下降。频繁重新训练模型以适应这些变化会带来高昂的计算成本,特别是对于大规模或基础模型而言。为了解决这一挑战,我们提出了FORESEE(利用残差平滑和专家集合的在线预测),一种轻量级的在线适应框架,具有准确性、鲁棒性和计算效率。FORESEE不进行任何对基模型的参数更新。相反,它通过指数平滑引导的专家混合机制稳定地利用昨日的预测误差来纠正各区域今天的预测。此外,一个自适应的空间时间平滑组件在邻近区域和时间槽之间传播误差信号,捕捉需求模式的相干变化。在七个真实世界数据集上进行的广泛实验表明,FORESEE在三种基础模型上一致提高了预测准确性,即使在分布偏移较小时也保持了鲁棒性(避免性能下降),并且在现有在线方法中实现了最低的计算开销。通过使交通预测模型能够以极低的计算成本实现实时适应,FORESEE为在动态城市环境中部署可靠、更新的预测系统铺平了道路。代码和数据可在https://github.com/xiannanhuang/FORESEE获取。

英文摘要:

Accurately predicting short-term traffic demand is critical for intelligent transportation systems. While deep learning models achieve strong performance under stationary conditions, their accuracy often degrades significantly when faced with distribution shifts caused by external events or evolving urban dynamics. Frequent model retraining to adapt to such changes incurs prohibitive computational costs, especially for large-scale or foundation models. To address this challenge, we propose FORESEE (Forecasting Online with Residual Smoothing and Ensemble Experts), a lightweight online adaptation framework that is accurate, robust, and computationally efficient. FORESEE operates without any parameter updates to the base model. Instead, it corrects today's forecast in each region using yesterday's prediction error, stabilized through exponential smoothing guided by a mixture-of-experts mechanism that adapts to recent error dynamics. Moreover, an adaptive spatiotemporal smoothing component propagates error signals across neighboring regions and time slots, capturing coherent shifts in demand patterns. Extensive experiments on seven real-world datasets with three backbone models demonstrate that FORESEE consistently improves prediction accuracy, maintains robustness even when distribution shifts are minimal (avoiding performance degradation), and achieves the lowest computational overhead among existing online methods. By enabling real-time adaptation of traffic forecasting models with negligible computational cost, FORESEE paves the way for deploying reliable, up-to-date prediction systems in dynamic urban environments. Code and data are available at https://github.com/xiannanhuang/FORESEE

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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