AGI的某些简单经济学
Some Simple Economics of AGI
AI总结：
本文探讨了AGI过渡中自动化与验证成本的不对称性，提出通过扩展验证能力来构建增强型经济，以应对智能发展带来的监管挑战。
摘要：
在数千年里，人类认知一直是地球上进步的主要引擎。随着人工智能将认知与生物学分离，可测量执行的边际成本降至零，吸收了所有可以被指标捕捉的劳动——包括创造性的、分析性的和创新性的劳动。增长的约束不再是智能，而是人类验证带宽：当执行量充足时，验证、审计和责任背书的能力。我们将AGI过渡建模为两个加速下降的成本曲线的碰撞：一个指数衰减的自动化成本曲线和一个生物瓶颈限制的验证成本曲线。这种结构不对称性扩大了执行能力与人类能够验证能力之间的可测量差距。它也推动了从技能偏向到可测量偏向的技术变革。租金迁移到验证级真实数据、加密溯源和责任背书——即能够保证结果的能力，而不是仅仅生成结果。当前的人工介入均衡是不稳定的：从下面被侵蚀，因为学徒制崩溃（缺失初级循环）；从内部被侵蚀，因为专家们编纂他们的过时（编纂者的诅咒）。未经验证的部署变得私有理性——一个Trojan Horse外部性。未经管理，这些力量会推动向空洞经济。然而，通过在代理能力的同时扩展验证能力，那些威胁崩溃的力量变成了无界发现和实验的催化剂——一个增强型经济。我们推导出一个为个人、公司、投资者和政策制定者提供的实用指南。当今的主要挑战不是部署最自主系统的竞赛；而是确保其监管基础的竞赛。只有通过在执行能力的同时扩展验证带宽，我们才能确保我们召唤的智能能保存最初启动它的人性。
英文摘要：
For millennia, human cognition was the primary engine of progress on Earth. As AI decouples cognition from biology, the marginal cost of measurable execution falls to zero, absorbing any labor capturable by metrics--including creative, analytical, and innovative work. The binding constraint on growth is no longer intelligence but human verification bandwidth: the capacity to validate, audit, and underwrite responsibility when execution is abundant. We model the AGI transition as the collision of two racing cost curves: an exponentially decaying Cost to Automate and a biologically bottlenecked Cost to Verify. This structural asymmetry widens a Measurability Gap between what agents can execute and what humans can afford to verify. It also drives a shift from skill-biased to measurability-biased technical change. Rents migrate to verification-grade ground truth, cryptographic provenance, and liability underwriting--the ability to insure outcomes rather than merely generate them. The current human-in-the-loop equilibrium is unstable: eroded from below as apprenticeship collapses (Missing Junior Loop) and from within as experts codify their obsolescence (Codifier's Curse). Unverified deployment becomes privately rational--a Trojan Horse externality. Unmanaged, these forces pull toward a Hollow Economy. Yet by scaling verification alongside agentic capabilities, the forces that threaten collapse become the catalyst for unbounded discovery and experimentation--an Augmented Economy. We derive a practical playbook for individuals, companies, investors, and policymakers. Today's defining challenge is not the race to deploy the most autonomous systems; it is the race to secure the foundations of their oversight. Only by scaling our bandwidth for verification alongside our capacity for execution can we ensure that the intelligence we have summoned preserves the humanity that initiated it.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
