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后AGI经济学的一种新价值理论

A New Theory of Value for Post-AGI Economics

Keyun Ruan

arXiv 2608.01432首次发表:更新:

AI 中文总结

针对AGI削弱经济价值理论核心稀缺性的问题,本文提出繁荣价值理论,区分价值创造与攫取,结合多领域理论构建后AGI经济学框架,核心是将智能转化为公平分配的人类、社会与行星繁荣。

AI 中文摘要

通用人工智能(AGI)可能会削弱支撑现有经济价值理论的劳动力、专业知识、信息和生产能力的稀缺性。如果认知工作被广泛自动化,市场价格、劳动投入、显示偏好、利润和总产出可能会与人类及社会福祉大幅偏离。本文提出繁荣价值理论(Flourishing Value Theory,FVT)作为后AGI经济学的基础。FVT将价值定义为系统、机构、资产或干预措施在社会和行星约束下,对个人和社区实现繁荣的持久能力所做的反事实、分布敏感的贡献。它认为社会价值具有多维、保留能动性、可再生且在关键阈值处非补偿性的特征。本文借鉴AI经济学、福利与能力理论、自动化、数字估值和生态经济学,区分价值创造与价值攫取,并将价格、利润、生产力和GDP视为进展的部分信号而非最终衡量标准。它提出从稀缺到受管制丰裕、从交易到转型、从零和竞争到正和与无限博弈动态的转变,其中意识的集体扩展是保留能动性的可再生价值形式。本文基于繁荣指标和繁荣回报率(Return on Flourishing,RoF),为企业、政府、工作转型、AI治理和国民核算提出分层架构。后AGI经济学的核心问题不是如何最大化产出,而是如何将丰富的智能转化为持久、公平分配的人类、社会和行星繁荣。

英文摘要

Artificial general intelligence (AGI) may weaken scarcities in labour, expertise, information, and productive capability that underpin established theories of economic value. If cognitive work becomes widely automatable, market price, labour input, revealed preference, profit, and gross output may diverge sharply from human and societal benefit. This paper develops Flourishing Value Theory (FVT) as a foundation for post-AGI economics. FVT defines value as the counterfactual, distribution-sensitive contribution of a system, institution, asset, or intervention to the durable capabilities of persons and communities to flourish within social and planetary constraints. It treats societal value as multidimensional, agency-preserving, regenerative, and non-compensatory at critical thresholds. Drawing on the economics of AI, welfare and capability theory, automation, digital valuation, and ecological economics, the paper distinguishes value creation from value capture and retains price, profit, productivity, and GDP as partial signals rather than final measures of progress. It develops the shifts from scarcity to governed abundance, transaction to transformation, and zero-sum rivalry to positive-sum and infinite-game dynamics, with collective expansion of consciousness as an agency-preserving form of regenerative value. Building on Flourishing Metrics and Return on Flourishing (RoF), it proposes a layered architecture for firms, governments, work transitions, AI governance, and national accounting. The central post-AGI economic problem is not how to maximise output, but how to convert abundant intelligence into durable, fairly distributed human, societal, and planetary flourishing.

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