Time series forecasting has long been dominated by model-centric approaches that formulate prediction as a single-pass mapping from historical observations to future values. Despite recent progress, such formulations often struggle in complex and evolving settings, largely because most forecasting models lack the ability to autonomously acquire informative evidence, reason about potential future changes, or revise predictions through iterative decision processes. In this work, we propose Cast-R1, a learned time series forecasting framework that reformulates forecasting as a sequential decision-making problem. Cast-R1 introduces a memory-based state management mechanism that maintains decision-relevant information across interaction steps, enabling the accumulation of contextual evidence to support long-horizon reasoning. Building on this formulation, forecasting is carried out through a tool-augmented agentic workflow, in which the agent autonomously interacts with a modular toolkit to extract statistical features, invoke lightweight forecasting models for decision support, perform reasoning-based prediction, and iteratively refine forecasts through self-reflection. To train Cast-R1, we adopt a two-stage learning strategy that combines supervised fine-tuning with multi-turn reinforcement learning, together with a curriculum learning scheme that progressively increases task difficulty to improve policy learning. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world time series datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of Cast-R1. We hope this work provides a practical step towards further exploration of agentic paradigms for time series modeling. Our code is available at https://github.com/Xiaoyu-Tao/Cast-R1-TS.
PINN-Cast: Exploring the Role of Continuous-Depth NODE in Transformers and Physics Informed Loss as Soft Physical Constraints in Short-term Weather Forecasting
University of Pittsburgh（匹兹堡大学）；Middle East Technical University（中东技术大学）
Opioid overdose is a growing public health crisis in the United States. This crisis, recognized as "opioid epidemic," has widespread societal consequences including the degradation of health, and the increase in crime rates and family problems. To improve the overdose surveillance and to identify the areas in need of prevention effort, in this work, we focus on forecasting opioid overdose using real-time crime dynamics. Previous work identified various types of links between opioid use and criminal activities, such as financial motives and common causes. Motivated by these observations, we pro…
QLIF-CAST: Quantum Leaky-Integrate-and-Fire for Time-Series Weather Forecasting
eBrain Lab, Division of Engineering, New York University Abu Dhabi（eBrain实验室，工程系，纽约大学阿布扎克分校）；Center for Quantum and Topological Systems, NYUAD Research Institute, New York University Abu Dhabi（量子与拓扑系统中心，NYUAD研究学院，纽约大学阿布扎克分校）
Neural differential equations predict the derivative of a stochastic process. This allows irregular forecasting with arbitrary time-steps. However, the expressive temporal flexibility often comes with a high sensitivity to noise. In addition, current methods model measurements and control together, limiting generalization to different control policies. These properties severely limit applicability to medical treatment problems, which require reliable forecasting given high noise, limited data and changing treatment policies. We introduce the Neural Eigen-SDE algorithm (NESDE), which relies on …
Accurate forecasts of the number of newly infected people during an epidemic are critical for making effective timely decisions. This paper addresses this challenge using the SIMLR model, which incorporates machine learning (ML) into the epidemiological SIR model. For each region, SIMLR tracks the changes in the policies implemented at the government level, which it uses to estimate the time-varying parameters of an SIR model for forecasting the number of new infections 1- to 4-weeks in advance.It also forecasts the probability of changes in those government policies at each of these future ti…
University of Georgia（佐治亚大学）；George Mason University（乔治梅森大学）；Georgetown University（乔治城大学）；Economic Research Services（经济研究服务局）
International trade policies have recently garnered attention for limiting cross-border exchange of essential goods (e.g. steel, aluminum, soybeans, and beef). Since trade critically affects employment and wages, predicting future patterns of trade is a high-priority for policy makers around the world. While traditional economic models aim to be reliable predictors, we consider the possibility that Machine Learning (ML) techniques allow for better predictions to inform policy decisions. Open-government data provide the fuel to power the algorithms that can explain and forecast trade flows to i…
An active area of research is to increase the safety of self-driving vehicles. Although safety cannot be guarenteed completely, the capability of a vehicle to predict the future trajectories of its surrounding vehicles could help ensure this notion of safety to a greater deal. We cast the trajectory forecast problem in a multi-time step forecasting problem and develop a Convolutional Neural Network based approach to learn from trajectory sequences generated from completely raw dataset in real-time. Results show improvement over baselines.
Forecasting India's Demographic Transition Under Fertility Policy Scenarios Using hybrid LSTM-PINN Model
Sant Longowal Institute of Engineering and Technology（桑特·朗戈瓦尔工程与技术学院）；School of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, The University of Adelaide（计算机与数学科学学院，阿德莱德大学）
Institute for Interdisciplinary Information Sciences, Tsinghua University（清华大学交叉信息研究院）；Zhili College, Tsinghua University（清华大学致理书院）；University of Copenhagen（哥本哈根大学）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）
Visual recognition systems mounted on autonomous moving agents face the challenge of unconstrained data, but simultaneously have the opportunity to improve their performance by moving to acquire new views of test data. In this work, we first show how a recurrent neural network-based system may be trained to perform end-to-end learning of motion policies suited for this "active recognition" setting. Further, we hypothesize that active vision requires an agent to have the capacity to reason about the effects of its motions on its view of the world. To verify this hypothesis, we attempt to induce…
CEDAR: Controlled and Event-Driven Demand Forecasting via Residual Decomposition
School of Artificial Intelligence and Data Science, University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学人工智能与数据科学学院）；Alibaba Group（阿里巴巴集团）；Thrust of Artificial Intelligence, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)（香港科技大学（广州）人工智能学域）
Pandemic control measures like lock-down, restrictions on restaurants and gatherings, social-distancing have shown to be effective in curtailing the spread of COVID-19. However, their sustained enforcement has negative economic effects. To craft strategies and policies that reduce the hardship on the people and the economy while being effective against the pandemic, authorities need to understand the disease dynamics at the right geo-spatial granularity. Considering factors like the hospitals' ability to handle the fluctuating demands, evaluating various reopening scenarios, and accurate forec…
Enhancing Prediction and Analysis of UK Road Traffic Accident Severity Using AI: Integration of Machine Learning, Econometric Techniques, and Time Series Forecasting in Public Health Research
Pontifical Catholic University of Parana (PUCPR)（巴拉那天主教大学）；Federal Technological University of Parana (UTFPR)（巴拉那联邦理工大学）；Federal University of Parana (UFPR)（巴拉那联邦大学）
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a public health problem once according to the World Health Organization up to June 10th, 2020, more than 7.1 million people were infected, and more than 400 thousand have died worldwide. In the current scenario, the Brazil and the United States of America present a high daily incidence of new cases and deaths. It is important to forecast the number of new cases in a time window of one week, once this can help the public health system developing strategic planning to deals with the COVID-19. In this paper, Bayesian regression neural network, cubist re…
Tackling air pollution is an imperative problem in South Korea, especially in urban areas, over the last few years. More specially, South Korea has joined the ranks of the world's most polluted countries alongside with other Asian capitals, such as Beijing or Delhi. Much research is being conducted in environmental science to evaluate the dangerous impact of particulate matters on public health. Besides that, deterministic models of air pollutant behavior are also generated; however, this is both complex and often inaccurate. On the contrary, deep recurrent neural network reveals potent potent…
Disentangling Long-Short Term State Under Unknown Interventions for Online Time Series Forecasting
School of Computer Science, Guangdong University of Technology（广东工业大学计算机学院）；Peng Cheng Laboratory（鹏城实验室）；Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence（穆罕默德·本·扎耶德人工智能大学）；Shantou University（汕头大学）
Sapienza University of Rome（罗马第一大学）；IMT School for Advanced Studies（IMT高等研究院）
In this work, we propose MUSTACHE, a new page cache replacement algorithm whose logic is learned from observed memory access requests rather than fixed like existing policies. We formulate the page request prediction problem as a categorical time series forecasting task. Then, our method queries the learned page request forecaster to obtain the next $k$ predicted page memory references to better approximate the optimal Bélády's replacement algorithm. We implement several forecasting techniques using advanced deep learning architectures and integrate the best-performing one into an existing ope…
Forecasting the effect of COVID-19 is essential to design policies that may prepare us to handle the pandemic. Many methods have already been proposed, particularly, to forecast reported cases and deaths at country-level and state-level. Many of these methods are based on traditional epidemiological model which rely on simulations or Bayesian inference to simultaneously learn many parameters at a time. This makes them prone to over-fitting and slow execution. We propose an extension to our model SIkJ$α$ to forecast deaths and show that it can consider the effect of many complexities of the epi…
To accurately predict the regional spread of Covid-19 infection, this study proposes a novel hybrid model which combines a Long short-term memory (LSTM) artificial recurrent neural network with dynamic behavioral models. Several factors and control strategies affect the virus spread, and the uncertainty arisen from confounding variables underlying the spread of the Covid-19 infection is substantial. The proposed model considers the effect of multiple factors to enhance the accuracy in predicting the number of cases and deaths across the top ten most-affected countries and Australia. The result…
University of Connecticut（康涅狄格大学）；MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab, IBM Research（MIT-IBM沃森人工智能实验室，IBM研究院）
Time series forecasting is an extensively studied subject in statistics, economics, and computer science. Exploration of the correlation and causation among the variables in a multivariate time series shows promise in enhancing the performance of a time series model. When using deep neural networks as forecasting models, we hypothesize that exploiting the pairwise information among multiple (multivariate) time series also improves their forecast. If an explicit graph structure is known, graph neural networks (GNNs) have been demonstrated as powerful tools to exploit the structure. In this work…
In electricity markets, retailers or brokers want to maximize profits by allocating tariff profiles to end consumers. One of the objectives of such demand response management is to incentivize the consumers to adjust their consumption so that the overall electricity procurement in the wholesale markets is minimized, e.g. it is desirable that consumers consume less during peak hours when cost of procurement for brokers from wholesale markets are high. We consider a greedy solution to maximize the overall profit for brokers by optimal tariff profile allocation. This in-turn requires forecasting …
Human decision making is well known to be imperfect and the ability to analyse such processes individually is crucial when attempting to aid or improve a decision-maker's ability to perform a task, e.g. to alert them to potential biases or oversights on their part. To do so, it is necessary to develop interpretable representations of how agents make decisions and how this process changes over time as the agent learns online in reaction to the accrued experience. To then understand the decision-making processes underlying a set of observed trajectories, we cast the policy inference problem as t…
School of Computer Science（计算机学院）；McGill University（麦吉尔大学）
Deep learning has become the state-of-art tool in many applications, but the evaluation and training of deep models can be time-consuming and computationally expensive. The conditional computation approach has been proposed to tackle this problem (Bengio et al., 2013; Davis & Arel, 2013). It operates by selectively activating only parts of the network at a time. In this paper, we use reinforcement learning as a tool to optimize conditional computation policies. More specifically, we cast the problem of learning activation-dependent policies for dropping out blocks of units as a reinforcement l…
UC San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Northeastern University（东北大学）
Deep learning is gaining increasing popularity for spatiotemporal forecasting. However, prior works have mostly focused on point estimates without quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. In high stakes domains, being able to generate probabilistic forecasts with confidence intervals is critical to risk assessment and decision making. Hence, a systematic study of uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for spatiotemporal forecasting is missing in the community. In this paper, we describe two types of spatiotemporal forecasting problems: regular grid-based and graph-based. Then we analyz…
Federated Learning for Global Carbon Emission Forecasting: A Hybrid Time-Series Approach with Statistical and Neural Models
School of Computing and Artificial Intelligence, Southwest Jiaotong University（西南交通大学计算机与人工智能学院）；Department of Computer Science, Bahria University（巴里亚大学计算机科学系）；School of Mechanical Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University（西南交通大学机械工程学院）
FLEXIBLE: Forecasting Cellular Traffic by Leveraging Explicit Inductive Graph-Based Learning
Orange Innovation（奥兰治创新公司）；Nantes University（南特大学）；École Centrale Nantes（南特中央理工学院）；IMT Atlantique（大西洋电信与技术学院）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；INRIA（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；LS2N（南特数字科学实验室）；University of Luxembourg（卢森堡大学）；SnT（卢森堡大学安全、可靠性和信任中心）
Advancing Real-time Pandemic Forecasting Using Large Language Models: A COVID-19 Case Study
Johns Hopkins University（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学）；Mila - Quebec AI Institute（米拉-魁北克人工智能研究所）；Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health（哈佛陈曾熙公共卫生学院）；Harvard University（哈佛大学）；Universite de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学）；Duke University（杜克大学）；Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学布隆伯格公共卫生学院）
