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arXiv 2602.09064cs.SEcs.AIcs.LG
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利用深度时间神经层次架构和可解释AI预测开源软件可持续性

Predicting Open Source Software Sustainability with Deep Temporal Neural Hierarchical Architectures and Explainable AI

Dept. of Electrical & Computer Engineering University of Missouri(电气与计算机工程系 芝加哥大学)

S M Rakib Ul Karim, Wenyi Lu, Enock Kasaadha, Sean Goggins

AI总结:

本文提出基于深度时间神经层次架构和可解释AI的方法,用于预测开源软件的可持续性,通过多阶段分类流程实现生命周期阶段的高准确率分类。

摘要:

开源软件(OSS)项目遵循多样化的生命周期轨迹,这些轨迹由不断演变的贡献、协调和社区参与模式塑造。理解这些轨迹对于寻求在大规模上评估项目组织和健康状况的各方至关重要。然而,以往的工作大多依赖于静态或聚合指标,如项目年龄或累计活动,提供了有限的洞察力,无法深入理解OSS可持续性如何随时间推移展开。在本文中,我们提出了一种层次预测框架,将OSS项目视为属于不同生命周期阶段,这些阶段基于已建立的社会技术分类OSS开发。而不是将可持续性仅视为项目寿命,这些生命周期阶段将可持续性作为多维构念,整合贡献活动、社区参与和维护动态。该框架结合了工程表指标与24个月的时间活动序列,并采用多阶段分类流程来区分与不同协调和参与制度相关的生命周期阶段。为了支持透明度,我们纳入了可解释AI技术来检查特征类别对模型预测的相对贡献。在大量OSS仓库数据集上评估,所提出的方法在生命周期阶段分类上的总体准确率超过94%。归因分析一致识别出贡献活动和社区相关特征为主要信号,突显了集体参与动态的核心作用。

英文摘要:

Open Source Software (OSS) projects follow diverse lifecycle trajectories shaped by evolving patterns of contribution, coordination, and community engagement. Understanding these trajectories is essential for stakeholders seeking to assess project organization and health at scale. However, prior work has largely relied on static or aggregated metrics, such as project age or cumulative activity, providing limited insight into how OSS sustainability unfolds over time. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical predictive framework that models OSS projects as belonging to distinct lifecycle stages grounded in established socio-technical categorizations of OSS development. Rather than treating sustainability solely as project longevity, these lifecycle stages operationalize sustainability as a multidimensional construct integrating contribution activity, community participation, and maintenance dynamics. The framework combines engineered tabular indicators with 24-month temporal activity sequences and employs a multi-stage classification pipeline to distinguish lifecycle stages associated with different coordination and participation regimes. To support transparency, we incorporate explainable AI techniques to examine the relative contribution of feature categories to model predictions. Evaluated on a large corpus of OSS repositories, the proposed approach achieves over 94\% overall accuracy in lifecycle stage classification. Attribution analyses consistently identify contribution activity and community-related features as dominant signals, highlighting the central role of collective participation dynamics.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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