折扣销售的易腐品：零售实践中需求预测的挑战
Discounted Sales of Expiring Perishables: Challenges for Demand Forecasting in Grocery Retail Practice
AI总结：
本研究探讨了在零售实践中将折扣销售纳入需求预测的挑战，发现预测低估了大多数SKU的需求，并强调了需要更精确的方法以减少库存过剩和食品浪费。
摘要：
零售商经常通过折扣价来刺激易腐食品的需求。然而，将这些折扣销售整合到未来的需求预测中是一个重大挑战。本研究探讨了将这些销售的固定比例作为常规需求纳入预测的有效性，这在实践中被广泛应用。我们使用两步回归方法分析了欧洲一家大型零售商的数据，涵盖超过1700种产品，分布在676家门店。我们发现，当发生折扣销售时，预测低估了大多数SKU的实际需求。这种残差提升效应显著受到低价销售数量的影响。我们的发现强调了需要更精确的方法来整合折扣销售到需求预测中，从而防止库存过剩以及与食品浪费相关的经济和环境影响。
英文摘要：
Grocery retailers frequently apply price discounts to stimulate demand for expiring perishables. However, integrating these discounted sales into future demand forecasts presents a significant challenge. This study investigates the effectiveness of incorporating a fixed share of these sales as \textit{regular} demand into the forecast, as commonly applied in practice. We employ a two-step regression approach on data from a major European grocery retailer, covering over 1,700 products across 676 stores. We reveal that forecasts underestimate actual demand for most SKUs when discounted sales occur. This residual uplift effect is significantly influenced by the number of sales at reduced prices. Our findings underscore the necessity for more precise approaches to integrate discounted sales into demand forecasts, thereby preventing excess inventory and the associated economic and environmental impacts of spoilage in the grocery sector.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
