arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2602.03049stat.MLcs.LGmath.STstat.MEstat.TH

统一的单玩家和多玩家表演预测推断框架:方法与渐近最优性

Unified Inference Framework for Single and Multi-Player Performative Prediction: Method and Asymptotic Optimality

Rutgers University(罗杰斯大学);University of Pennsylvania(宾夕法尼亚大学)

Zhixian Zhang, Xiaotian Hou, Linjun Zhang

AI总结:

本文提出统一的单玩家和多玩家表演预测推断框架,通过RRM和两步插值估计器实现渐近最优性,提供可靠估计与决策的系统工具。

摘要:

表演预测刻画了预测模型会改变其试图预测的数据分布的环境,从而引发复杂的反馈循环。尽管先前的研究将单主体和多主体的表演性视为不同的现象,本文介绍了一个统一的统计推断框架,将这些情境联系起来,将前者视为后者的一个特殊情况。我们的贡献是双方面的。首先,我们提出了重复风险最小化(RRM)程序来估计表演稳定性,并建立了严格的推断理论,以证明其渐近正态性和渐近效率。其次,为了实现表演最优性,我们引入了一种新的两步插值估计器,将校准预测驱动推断(RePPI)与重要性采样相结合,并进一步为底层分布参数和插值结果的中心极限定理提供了正式推导。理论分析表明,我们的估计器达到了半参数效率界,并在轻微的分布假设偏差下保持稳健性。这项工作为动态、表演性环境中的可靠估计和决策提供了系统化的工具包。

英文摘要:

Performative prediction characterizes environments where predictive models alter the very data distributions they aim to forecast, triggering complex feedback loops. While prior research treats single-agent and multi-agent performativity as distinct phenomena, this paper introduces a unified statistical inference framework that bridges these contexts, treating the former as a special case of the latter. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we put forward the Repeated Risk Minimization (RRM) procedure for estimating the performative stability, and establish a rigorous inferential theory for admitting its asymptotic normality and confirming its asymptotic efficiency. Second, for the performative optimality, we introduce a novel two-step plug-in estimator that integrates the idea of Recalibrated Prediction Powered Inference (RePPI) with Importance Sampling, and further provide formal derivations for the Central Limit Theorems of both the underlying distributional parameters and the plug-in results. The theoretical analysis demonstrates that our estimator achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound and maintains robustness under mild distributional misspecification. This work provides a principled toolkit for reliable estimation and decision-making in dynamic, performative environments.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

↑