Learning causal structures from observational data remains a fundamental yet computationally intensive task, particularly in high-dimensional settings where existing methods face challenges such as the super-exponential growth of the search space and increasing computational demands. To address this, we introduce VISTA (Voting-based Integration of Subgraph Topologies for Acyclicity), a modular framework that decomposes the global causal structure learning problem into local subgraphs based on Markov Blankets. The global integration is achieved through a weighted voting mechanism that penalizes low-support edges via exponential decay, filters unreliable ones with an adaptive threshold, and ensures acyclicity using a Feedback Arc Set (FAS) algorithm. The framework is model-agnostic, imposing no assumptions on the inductive biases of base learners, is compatible with arbitrary data settings without requiring specific structural forms, and fully supports parallelization. We also theoretically establish finite-sample error bounds for VISTA, and prove its asymptotic consistency under mild conditions. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real datasets consistently demonstrate the effectiveness of VISTA, yielding notable improvements in both accuracy and efficiency over a wide range of base learners.
The notion of causality is used in many situations dealing with uncertainty. We consider the problem whether causality can be identified given data set generated by discrete random variables rather than continuous ones. In particular, for non-binary data, thus far it was only known that causality can be identified except rare cases. In this paper, we present necessary and sufficient condition for an integer modular acyclic additive noise (IMAN) of two variables. In addition, we relate bivariate and multivariate causal identifiability in a more explicit manner, and develop a practical algorithm…
Applied AI Lab（应用人工智能实验室）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；MPI for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
Latent world models allow agents to reason about complex environments with high-dimensional observations. However, adapting to new environments and effectively leveraging previous knowledge remain significant challenges. We present variational causal dynamics (VCD), a structured world model that exploits the invariance of causal mechanisms across environments to achieve fast and modular adaptation. By causally factorising a transition model, VCD is able to identify reusable components across different environments. This is achieved by combining causal discovery and variational inference to lea…
Mila（米拉研究所）；Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学）；ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；KTH Stockholm（斯德哥尔摩KTH皇家理工学院）；DeepMind（深度思维）
Learning models that offer robust out-of-distribution generalization and fast adaptation is a key challenge in modern machine learning. Modelling causal structure into neural networks holds the promise to accomplish robust zero and few-shot adaptation. Recent advances in differentiable causal discovery have proposed to factorize the data generating process into a set of modules, i.e. one module for the conditional distribution of every variable where only causal parents are used as predictors. Such a modular decomposition of knowledge enables adaptation to distributions shifts by only updating…
Curious Causality-Seeking Agents Learn Meta Causal World
University of Bristol（布里斯托大学）；Peking University（北京大学）；Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院自动化研究所）；School of Artificial Intelligence, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院人工智能学院）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）；King Abdullah University of Science and Technology（卡塔尔科技大学）；The Swiss AI Lab, IDSIA-USI/SUPSI（瑞士AI实验室，IDSIA-USI/SUPSI）
Informatics Institute（信息学研究所）；University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）
We address the problem of causal discovery from data, making use of the recently proposed causal modeling framework of modular structural causal models (mSCM) to handle cycles, latent confounders and non-linearities. We introduce σ-connection graphs (σ-CG), a new class of mixed graphs (containing undirected, bidirected and directed edges) with additional structure, and extend the concept of σ-separation, the appropriate generalization of the well-known notion of d-separation in this setting, to apply to σ-CGs. We prove the closedness of σ-separation under marginalisation and conditioning and e…
On Learning Necessary and Sufficient Causal Graphs
University of California, Irvine（加州大学尔湾分校）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；North Carolina State University（北卡罗来纳州立大学）
Mila（米拉研究所）；Polytechnique Montréal（蒙特利尔综合理工学院）；Deepmind（深度思维）；Element AI（Element AI公司）；Google AI（谷歌人工智能）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
Inducing causal relationships from observations is a classic problem in machine learning. Most work in causality starts from the premise that the causal variables themselves are observed. However, for AI agents such as robots trying to make sense of their environment, the only observables are low-level variables like pixels in images. To generalize well, an agent must induce high-level variables, particularly those which are causal or are affected by causal variables. A central goal for AI and causality is thus the joint discovery of abstract representations and causal structure. However, we n…
Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence（穆罕默德·本·扎耶德人工智能大学）；University of California, San Diego（加利福尼亚大学圣迭戈分校）；Guangdong University of Technology（广东工业大学）；University of Melbourne（墨尔本大学）；Shiga University（滋贺大学）；RIKEN（理化学研究所）
Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence（穆罕默德·本·扎耶德人工智能大学）
One critical challenge of time-series modeling is how to learn and quickly correct the model under unknown distribution shifts. In this work, we propose a principled framework, called LiLY, to first recover time-delayed latent causal variables and identify their relations from measured temporal data under different distribution shifts. The correction step is then formulated as learning the low-dimensional change factors with a few samples from the new environment, leveraging the identified causal structure. Specifically, the framework factorizes unknown distribution shifts into transition dist…
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；Tencent AI Lab（腾讯人工智能实验室）；Amazon AWS AI Labs（亚马逊AWS人工智能实验室）
Commonsense causality reasoning (CCR) aims at identifying plausible causes and effects in natural language descriptions that are deemed reasonable by an average person. Although being of great academic and practical interest, this problem is still shadowed by the lack of a well-posed theoretical framework; existing work usually relies on deep language models wholeheartedly, and is potentially susceptible to confounding co-occurrences. Motivated by classical causal principles, we articulate the central question of CCR and draw parallels between human subjects in observational studies and natura…
Inferring causal relationships from observational data is rarely straightforward, but the problem is especially difficult in high dimensions. For these applications, causal discovery algorithms typically require parametric restrictions or extreme sparsity constraints. We relax these assumptions and focus on an important but more specialized problem, namely recovering the causal order among a subgraph of variables known to descend from some (possibly large) set of confounding covariates, i.e. a $\textit{confounder blanket}$. This is useful in many settings, for example when studying a dynamic b…
Assessing the magnitude of cause-and-effect relations is one of the central challenges found throughout the empirical sciences. The problem of identification of causal effects is concerned with determining whether a causal effect can be computed from a combination of observational data and substantive knowledge about the domain under investigation, which is formally expressed in the form of a causal graph. In many practical settings, however, the knowledge available for the researcher is not strong enough so as to specify a unique causal graph. Another line of investigation attempts to use obs…
A wide variety of application domains are concerned with data consisting of entities and their relationships or connections, formally represented as graphs. Within these diverse application areas, a common problem of interest is the detection of a subset of entities whose connectivity is anomalous with respect to the rest of the data. While the detection of such anomalous subgraphs has received a substantial amount of attention, no application-agnostic framework exists for analysis of signal detectability in graph-based data. In this paper, we describe a framework that enables such analysis us…
